Climate challenges and hydraulic power industry as a powerful tool to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement

Fossil fuel energy and increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cause global climate change. In pursuance of the goals of the Paris Agreement, the global power industry must switch a significant part of fuel energy production to renewable energy production. The expected share of various sources in the global power industry by the end of the 21st century is provided. However, the limited possibilities of the biosphere make the current level of energy production from renewable sources nearly impossible. The most preferable scenario is proposed to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by reducing the use of coal by 170 million tons per year, which will ensure a corresponding reduction in emissions by 620 million tons per year and the achievement by 2050 of the material balance of carbon in the emission - flow system. Under the most preferable scenario, it will be necessary to commission alternative replacement powers of about 160 GW per year; at the same time, the average global temperature will additionally rise by 0.6 С compared to the current one. The prospects and advantages of the development of the Russian hydraulic power industry as an environmentally and economically efficient alternative to coal projects are considered. In the emerging reality, Russian hydraulic power companies are advised to determine their ambitious share of the Russian quota for reducing emissions and commissioning 30 GW of replacement hydraulic power capacities by 2050 with additional electricity generation of up to 120 TWh per year.

The effect of climate change on future Common Security and Defence Policy missions and operations

Never before in the known history of the world people had such a great impact on climate change as since the beginning of the era of industrialization. Industrial production on a huge, unprecedented scale, apart from its benefits, causes climate change on a global scale through the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. According to the AR5 IPCC report, it is expected that the ever-increasing CO2 emissions and the lack of action to reduce it will increase the average global temperature from the pre-industrial era by up to 4 degrees Celsius to 2100. Such significant climate change can have catastrophic and irreversible consequences for the inhabitants of our planet. Exhausting sources of drinking water, land that cannot be cultivated and depleting natural resources will force people to fight for what will remain. The emergence of military groups will result in both internal armed conflicts and international tensions caused by mass migration of people from countries with the least vulnerability to the effects of climate change, to highly developed regions such as EU countries. Climate change in the context of security is multidimensional and affects almost every sector. EU countries will be forced to counteract the effects of climate change not only through agreements or declarations within the UN, but also by involving their own forces and resources in CSDP missions and operations. The current activities under CSDP will be intensified as well as diversified by implementing support for technological adaptation to new climate conditions in undeveloped countries.

Mathematical Description of Energy Transition Scenarios Based on the Latest Technologies and Trends

This work, dedicated to a mathematical description of energy transition scenarios, consists of three main parts. The first part describes modern trends and problems of the energy sector. A large number of charts reflecting the latest updates in energy are provided. The COVID-2019 pandemic’s impacts on the energy sector are also included. The second part of the paper is dedicated to the analysis of energy consumption and the structure of the world fuel and energy balance. Furthermore, a detailed description of energy-efficient technologies is given. Being important and low-carbon, hydrogen is discussed, including its advantages and disadvantages. The last part of the work describes the mathematical tool developed by the authors. The high availability of statistical data made it possible to identify parameters used in the algorithm with the least squares method and verify the tool. Performing several not complicated steps of the algorithm, the tool allows calculating the deviation of the average global temperature of the surface atmosphere from preindustrial levels in the 21st century under different scenarios. Using the suggested mathematical description, the optimal scenario that makes it possible to keep global warming at a level below 1.7 °C was found.

GLOBAL DECARBONIZATION: CURRENT TRENDS AND FORECASTS

The scientific article provides an analysis of data on the dynamics of changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere, its relationship with an increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface and further measures related to the decarbonization of industry. When analyzing theoretical materials, it was revealed that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere increased from 270 to 419 parts per million (ppm), which ultimately led to an increase in temperature on the planet by 1.1°C over the past 150 years. If the current rate of growth in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is maintained, the increase in the average global temperature may exceed 4°C, which will have catastrophic consequences. In terms of CO2 emissions, China ranks first in the world (28,8% of the total global emissions), followed by the United States (14,5%). Next are the European Union (9,7%), India (7,3%), Russia (4.5%) and Japan (3,3%), etc. To keep the average temperature rise within 1.5°C, the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation should increase in 2050 to at least 70-85 percent. At the same time, the share of natural gas, provided that technologies for capturing and storing CO2 are used, will decrease to 8% (from 3 to 11% according to different scenarios), while the share of coal will decrease to almost 0% (0-2%)

The Increasing Importance of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Investing in Combating Climate Change

The current climate change is significantly caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, particularly CO2 released by burning of fossil fuels. Climate change is predicted to disrupt production systems and supply chains of businesses, potentially affecting their financial performance. ESG investing, the consideration of environmental, social and governance factors by asset managers will likely play a crucial role in combating climate change. To attract ESG funds, companies will have to reduce their carbon footprint, among other actions. When companies reduce scope emissions, they help achieve a goal of the Paris Agreement of limiting average global temperature increase to below 2°C above pre-industrial level. The aim is to identify factors that are likely to increase uptake of ESG investing. The increase in number of ESG investors and their assets, higher financial performance of ESG-linked investments, and increasing regulatory and investor initiatives are likely to increase the impact of ESG investing in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, investors are becoming more environmentally conscious when making investment decisions. Although some challenges persist, including inconsistency in terminology, huge amount of data to analyze and heterogenous rating standards, ESG investing is likely to play an important role in influencing entities to reduce their carbon footprint.

Global Warming in Cameron Highlands: Forecasting its Temperature Level via ARIMA vs ARAR

The average global temperature has increased at a rapid rate over the past 50 years leading to global warming. The impact of climate change can be felt across the continents. In this research, analysis was conducted to model and forecast the monthly temperature of Cameron Highlands in 2020 and 2021, against its historical monthly average temperature from January 1990 until December 2019. Two (2) methods namely (i) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and (ii) Autoregressive Autoregressive (ARAR) algorithm were compared to determine the best model to forecast the monthly temperature of Cameron Highlands. SARIMA (1,1,2)(1,1,1)12 was found to be the best at forecasting the monthly temperature in Cameron Highlands as RMSE and MAPE values were lower than ARAR. In year 2021, the temperature in Cameron Highlands is estimated to increase by 1.6 °C. The result of the forecast showed that its monthly temperature was expected to increase in the next two (2) years. Hence, this calls for serious action to be taken by higher authorities.

Editorial by more than 200 health journals: Call for emergency action to limit global temperature increases, restore biodiversity, and protect health

More than 200 health journals today published an editorial calling for urgent action to keep average global temperature increases below 1.5??C, halt the destruction of nature, and protect health. The editorial can be read for example here (published under a CC-BY Open Access license), ...

Call for emergency action to limit global temperature increases, restore biodiversity, and protect health

The UN General Assembly in September 2021 will bring countries together at a critical time for marshalling collective action to tackle the global environmental crisis. They will meet again at the biodiversity summit in Kunming, China, and the climate conference (COP26) in Glasgow, UK. Ahead of these pivotal meetings, we—the editors of health journals worldwide—call for urgent action to keep average global temperature increases below 1.5°C, halt the destruction of nature, and protect health. Read more in PDF.

#HealthyClimate: Call for Emergency Action to Limit Global Temperature Increases, Restore Biodiversity, and Protect Health

The UN General Assembly in September 2021 will bring countries together at a critical time for marshalling collective action to tackle the global environmental crisis. They will meet again at the biodiversity summit in Kunming, China, and the climate conference (COP26) in Glasgow, UK. Ahead of these pivotal meetings, we—the editors of health journals worldwide—call for urgent action to keep average global temperature increases below 1.5°C, halt the destruction of nature, and protect health.

#HealthyClimate: Call for Emergency Action to Limit Global Temperature Increases, Restore Biodiversity, and Protect Health (Preprint)

UNSTRUCTURED The UN General Assembly in September 2021 will bring countries together at a critical time for marshalling collective action to tackle the global environmental crisis. They will meet again at the biodiversity summit in Kunming, China, and the climate conference (COP26) in Glasgow, UK. Ahead of these pivotal meetings, we—the editors of health journals worldwide—call for urgent action to keep average global temperature increases below 1.5°C, halt the destruction of nature, and protect health.