Prediction and predictability of a catastrophic local extreme precipitation event through cloud-resolving ensemble analysis and forecasting with Doppler radar observations

Abstract This study explores the benefits of assimilating infrared (IR) brightness temperature (BT) observations from geostationary satellites jointly with radial velocity (Vr) and reflectivity (Z) observations from Doppler weather radars within an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system to the convection-allowing ensemble analysis and prediction of a tornadic supercell thunderstorm event on 12 June 2017 across Wyoming and Nebraska. While radar observations sample the three-dimensional storm structures with high fidelity, BT observations provide information about clouds prior to the formation of precipitation particles when in-storm radar observations are not yet available and also provide information on the environment outside the thunderstorms. To better understand the strengths and limitations of each observation type, the satellite and Doppler radar observations are assimilated separately and jointly, and the ensemble analyses and forecasts are compared with available observations. Results show that assimilating BT observations has the potential to increase the forecast and warning lead times of severe weather events compared with radar observations and may also potentially complement the sparse surface observations in some regions as revealed by the probabilistic prediction of mesocyclone tracks initialized from EnKF analyses as various times. Additionally, the assimilation of both BT and Vr observations yields the best ensemble forecasts, providing higher confidence, improved accuracy, and longer lead times on the probabilistic prediction of midlevel mesocyclones.

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Polarimetric Radar Signatures and Performance of Various Radar Rainfall Estimators during an Extreme Precipitation Event over the Thousand-Island Lake Area in Eastern China

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs11202335 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (20) ◽

pp. 2335 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yabin Gou ◽

Haonan Chen ◽

Jiafeng Zheng

Keyword(s):

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Rapid Development ◽

Eastern China ◽

Rain Gauge ◽

Extreme Precipitation Event ◽

Precipitation Event ◽

Distribution Data ◽

Lake Area ◽

Polarimetric Radar ◽

Radar Rainfall

Polarimetric radar provides more choices and advantages for quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) than single-polarization radar. Utilizing the C-band polarimetric radar in Hangzhou, China, six radar QPE estimators based on the horizontal reflectivity (ZH), specific attenuation (AH), specific differential phase (KDP), and double parameters that further integrate the differential reflectivity (ZDR), namely, R(ZH, ZDR), R(KDP, ZDR), and R(AH, ZDR), are investigated for an extreme precipitation event that occurred in Eastern China on 1 June 2016. These radar QPE estimators are respectively evaluated and compared with a local rain gauge network and drop size distribution data observed by two disdrometers. The results show that (i) although R(AH, ZDR) underestimates in the light rain scenario, it performs the best among all radar QPE estimators according to the normalized mean error; (ii) the optimal radar rainfall relationship and consistency between radar measurements aloft and their surface counterparts are both required to obtain accurate rainfall estimates close to the ground. The contamination from melting layer on AH and KDP can make R(AH), R(AH, ZDR), R(KDP), and R(KDP, ZDR) less effective than R(ZH) and R(ZH,ZDR). Instead, adjustments of the α coefficient can partly reduce such impact and hence render a superior AH–based rainfall estimator; (iii) each radar QPE estimator may outperform others during some time intervals featured by particular rainfall characteristics, but they all tend to underestimate rainfall if radar fails to capture the rapid development of rainstorms.

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