Purpose
This article presents a basic exploration of Bayesian inference to inform researchers unfamiliar to this type of analysis of the many advantages this readily available approach provides.
Method
First, we demonstrate the development of Bayes' theorem, the cornerstone of Bayesian statistics, into an iterative process of updating priors. Working with a few assumptions, including normalcy and conjugacy of prior distribution, we express how one would calculate the posterior distribution using the prior distribution and the likelihood of the parameter. Next, we move to an example in auditory research by considering the effect of sound therapy for reducing the perceived loudness of tinnitus. In this case, as well as most real-world settings, we turn to Markov chain simulations because the assumptions allowing for easy calculations no longer hold. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we can illustrate several analysis solutions given by a straightforward Bayesian approach.
Conclusion
Bayesian methods are widely applicable and can help scientists overcome analysis problems, including how to include existing information, run interim analysis, achieve consensus through measurement, and, most importantly, interpret results correctly.
Supplemental Material
https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.7822592
Quantitative evaluation of geological uncertainty and its influence on tunnel structural performance using improved coupled Markov chain
