Stochastic Final Pit Limits: An Efficient Frontier Analysis under Geological Uncertainty in the Open-Pit Mining Industry

In the context of planning the exploitation of an open-pit mine, the final pit limit problem consists of finding the volume to be extracted so that it maximizes the total profit of exploitation subject to overall slope angles to keep pit walls stable. To address this problem, the ore deposit is discretized as a block model, and efficient algorithms are used to find the optimal final pit. However, this methodology assumes a deterministic scenario, i.e., it does not consider that information, such as ore grades, is subject to several sources of uncertainty. This paper presents a model based on stochastic programming, seeking a balance between conflicting objectives: on the one hand, it maximizes the expected value of the open-pit mining business and simultaneously minimizes the risk of losses, measured as conditional value at risk, associated with the uncertainty in the estimation of the mineral content found in the deposit, which is characterized by a set of conditional simulations. This allows generating a set of optimal solutions in the expected return vs. risk space, forming the Pareto front or efficient frontier of final pit alternatives under geological uncertainty. In addition, some criteria are proposed that can be used by the decision maker of the mining company to choose which final pit best fits the return/risk trade off according to its objectives. This methodology was applied on a real case study, making a comparison with other proposals in the literature. The results show that our proposal better manages the relationship in controlling the risk of suffering economic losses without renouncing high expected profit.

The Influence of Main Factors on Deepwater Sediments

Western Siberia is a unique petroleum basin with exclusive geological objects. Those objects allow us to test various methods of sequence stratigraphy, systematization and evaluation approaches for reservoir characterization of deep-water sediments. Different methods have potential to decrease geological uncertainty and predict distribution and architecture of deep-water sandstone reservoir. There are many different parameters that could be achieved through analysis of clinoform complex. Trajectories of shelf break, volume of sediment supply and topography of basin influence on architecture of deep-water reservoir. Based on general principles of sequence stratigraphy, three main trajectories changes shelf break might be identified: transgression, normal regression and forced regression. And each of them has its own distinctive characteristics of deepwater reservoir. However, to properly assess the architecture of deepwater reservoir and potential of it, numerical characteristics are necessary. In our paper, previously described parameters were analyzed for identification perspective areas of Achimov formation in Western Siberia and estimation of geological uncertainty for unexplored areas. In 1996 Helland-Hansen W., Martinsen O.J. [5] described different types of shoreline trajectory. In 2002 Steel R.J., Olsen T. [11] adopted types of shoreline trajectory for identification of truncation termination. O. Catuneanu (2009) [1] summarize all information with implementation basis of sequence stratigraphy. Over the past decade, many geoscientists have used previously published researches to determine relationship between geometric structures of clinoforms and architecture of deep-water sediments and its reservoir quality. Significant amount of publications has allowed to form theoretical framework for the undersanding sedimentation process and geometrical configuration of clinoforms. However, there is still no relationship between sequence stratigraphy framework of clinoroms and reservoir quality and its uncertainty, which is necessary for new area evaluation.

Fast Optimization of Injector Selection for Waterflood, CO2-EOR and Storage Using an Innovative Machine Learning Framework

Optimal injector selection is a key oilfield development endeavor that can be computationally costly. Methods proposed in the literature to reduce the number of function evaluations are often designed for pattern level analysis and do not scale easily to full field analysis. These methods are rarely applied to both water and miscible gas floods with carbon storage objectives; reservoir management decision making under geological uncertainty is also relatively underexplored. In this work, several innovations are proposed to efficiently determine the optimal injector location under geological uncertainty. A geomodel ensemble is prepared in order to capture the range of geological uncertainty. In these models, the reservoir is divided into multiple well regions that are delineated through spatial clustering. Streamline simulation results are used to train a meta-learner proxy. A posterior sampling algorithm evaluates injector locations across multiple geological realizations. The proposed methodology was applied to a producing field in Asia. The proxy predicted optimal injector locations for water and CO2 EOR and storage floods within several seconds (94–98% R2 scores). Blind tests with geomodels not used in training yielded accuracies greater than 90% (R2 scores). Posterior sampling selected optimal injection locations within minutes compared to hours using numerical simulation. This methodology enabled the rapid evaluation of injector well location for a variety of flood projects. This will aid reservoir managers to rapidly make field development decisions for field scale injection and storage projects under geological uncertainty.

Multi-Objective Optimization of CO2 Sequestration in Heterogeneous Saline Aquifers under Geological Uncertainty

This paper presents a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization for operating CO2 sequestration with a multi-well system under geological uncertainty; the optimal well allocation, i.e., the optimal allocation of CO2 rates at injection wells, is obtained when there is minimum operation pressure as well as maximum sequestration efficiency. The distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis evaluates the influence of geological uncertainty on the amount of CO2 sequestration through four injection wells at 3D heterogeneous saline aquifers. The spatial properties significantly influencing the trapping volume, in descending order of influence, are mean sandstone porosity, mean sandstone permeability, shale volume ratio, and the Dykstra–Parsons coefficient of permeability. This confirms the importance of storable capacity and heterogeneity in quantitatively analyzing the trapping mechanisms. Multi-objective optimization involves the use of two aquifer models relevant to heterogeneity; one is highly heterogeneous and the other is less so. The optimal well allocations converge to non-dominated solutions and result in a large injection through one specific well, which generates the wide spread of a highly mobile CO2 plume. As the aquifer becomes heterogeneous with a large shale volume and a high Dykstra–Parsons coefficient, the trapping performances of the combined structural and residual sequestration plateau relatively early. The results discuss the effects of spatial heterogeneity on achieving CO2 geological storage, and they provide an operation strategy including multi-objective optimization.

Drilling-Campaign Optimization Using Sequential Information and Policy Analytics

Summary Optimally designed drilling campaigns are essential for improving oil recovery and value creation. They are required at different stages of the hydrocarbon-field life cycle, including exploration, appraisal, development, and infill. A significant fraction of the revenue risk comes from geological uncertainty, and for this reason, subsurface teams are frequently responsible for optimizing campaign parameters such as the number of wells, the corresponding locations, and the drilling sequence. Companies use the information and learning from drilled wells to adapt the remainder of the campaign, but classical optimization methods do not account for such learning and flexibility over time. Accounting for sequential geological information acquisition and decision making in the optimization of drilling campaigns adds value to the project. We propose a method to optimize drilling campaigns under geological uncertainty by using a sequential-decision model to obtain the optimal drilling policy and applying analytics over the policy to obtain the optimal number of wells and corresponding locations. The novel contribution of policy analytics provides better access to information within the complex data structure of the optimal policy, providing decision support for different decision criteria. The method is demonstrated in two different cases. The first case considers a set of eight candidate wells on predefined locations, mimicking the situation where the method is used after a prior subsurface optimization. The second case considers a set of 12 candidate wells regularly scattered in the same area and uses the method as the first optimization approach to filter out less-attractive regions. Exploiting the geological information on a well-by-well basis improved the expected campaign value by 65% in the first case and by 183% in the second case. The value of spatial geological information and value of flexibility from having more drilling candidates are two byproducts of the method application.