scholarly journals The role of renewables in the Japanese power sector: implications from the EMF35 JMIP

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 375-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroto Shiraki ◽  
Masahiro Sugiyama ◽  
Yuhji Matsuo ◽  
Ryoichi Komiyama ◽  
Shinichiro Fujimori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Renewable Energies ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Power Sector ◽  
Capital Costs ◽  
Free Hydrogen ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Policy Cost

AbstractThe Japanese power system has unique characteristics with regard to variable renewable energies (VREs), such as higher costs, lower potentials, and less flexibility with the grid connection compared to other major greenhouse-gas-emitting countries. We analyzed the role of renewable energies (REs) in the future Japanese power sector using the results from the model intercomparison project Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison Project (JMIP) using varying emission reduction targets and key technological conditions across scenarios. We considered the uncertainties for future capital costs of solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and batteries in addition to the availability of nuclear and carbon dioxide capture and storage. The results show that REs supply more than 40% of electricity in most of the technology sensitivity scenarios (median 51.0%) when assuming an 80% emission reduction in 2050. The results (excluding scenarios that assume the continuous growth of nuclear power and/or the abundant availability of domestic biomass and carbon-free hydrogen) show that the median VRE shares reach 52.2% in 2050 in the 80% emission reduction scenario. On the contrary, the availability of newly constructed nuclear power, affordable biomass, and carbon-free hydrogen can reduce dependence on VREs to less than 20%. The policy costs were much more sensitive to the capital costs and resource potential of VREs than the battery cost uncertainties. Specifically, while the doubled capital costs of VRE resulted in a 13.0% (inter-model median) increase in the policy cost, the halved capital costs of VREs reduced 8.7% (inter-model median) of the total policy cost. These results imply that lowering the capital costs of VREs would be effective in achieving a long-term emission reduction target considering the current high Japanese VRE costs.

scholarly journals Effects of technology assumptions on US power sector capacity, generation and emissions projections: Results from the EMF 32 Model Intercomparison Project

2018 ◽  
Vol 73 ◽  
pp. 290-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared R. Creason ◽  
John E. Bistline ◽  
Elke L. Hodson ◽  
Brian C. Murray ◽  
Charles G. Rossmann
Keyword(s):  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Power Sector ◽  
Intercomparison Project

scholarly journals Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allison A. Wing ◽  
Kevin A. Reed ◽  
Masaki Satoh ◽  
Bjorn Stevens ◽  
Sandrine Bony ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Tropical Circulation ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
Single Column ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Self Aggregation

Abstract. RCEMIP, an intercomparison of multiple types of models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), is proposed. RCE is an idealization of the climate system in which there is a balance between radiative cooling of the atmosphere and heating by convection. The scientific objectives of RCEMIP are three-fold. First, clouds and climate sensitivity will be investigated in the RCE setting. This includes determining how cloud fraction changes with warming and the role of self-aggregation of convection. Second, RCEMIP will quantify the dependence of the degree of convective aggregation and tropical circulation regimes on temperature. Finally, by providing a common baseline, RCEMIP will allow the robustness of the RCE state, cloud feedbacks, and convective aggregation across the spectrum of models to be assessed. A novel aspect and major advantage of RCEMIP is the accessibility of the RCE framework to a variety of models, including cloud-resolving models, general circulation models, global cloud-resolving models, and single column models.

scholarly journals Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: A global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prodromos Zanis ◽  
Dimitris Akritidis ◽  
Steven Turnock ◽  
Vaishali Naik ◽  
Sophie Szopa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Pollution Sources ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modeling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of -0.96±0.07 ppbv oC-1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abudances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from -0.2 to -2 ppbv oC-1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOC) emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv oC-1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

Role of Regional Ocean Dynamics in Dynamic Sea Level Projections by the end of the 21st Century over Southeast Asia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dhrubajyoti Samanta ◽  
Svetlana Jevrejeva ◽  
Hindumathi K. Palanisamy ◽  
Kristopher B. Karnauskas ◽  
Nathalie F. Goodkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Mean State ◽  
Dynamic Sea Level ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

<p>Southeast Asia is especially vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise due to the presence of many low-lying small islands and highly populated coastal cities. However, our current understanding of sea-level projections and changes in upper-ocean dynamics over this region currently rely on relatively coarse resolution (~100 km) global climate model (GCM) simulations and is therefore limited over the coastal regions. Here using GCM simulations from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to (1) examine the improvement of mean-state biases in the tropical Pacific and dynamic sea-level (DSL) over Southeast Asia; (2) generate projection on DSL over Southeast Asia under shared socioeconomic pathways phase-5 (SSP5-585); and (3) diagnose the role of changes in regional ocean dynamics under SSP5-585. We select HighResMIP models that included a historical period and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 5-8.5 future scenario for the same ensemble and estimate the projected changes relative to the 1993-2014 period. Drift corrected DSL time series is estimated before examining the projected changes. Due to improved simulation of heat, salt, and mass distribution in the ocean, HighResMIP models not only reduce mean state biases in the tropical Pacific (such as cold-tongue sea surface temperature bias), but also near Southeast Asia including DSL. Despite intermodel diversity, there is an overall agreement of increasing sea-level over Southeast Asia. The multimodel ensemble of HighResMIP models suggests a rise of 0.2 m sea level in dynamic sea level (combined with thermosteric component) over Southeast Asia by 2070. Sea-level rises further up to 0.5 m by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Further, we found regional heat and mass transport changes have a major role in the projected sea-level pattern over Southeast Asia. For example, heat convergence to the east of Vietnam can account for most of the sea-level rise in the region. Our study can provide better insight into the contribution of regional ocean dynamics to DSL projections and useful to suggest for further ocean modelling studies.</p>

Study Assesses Potential of Renewable Energy in Power Sector

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (07) ◽  
pp. 65-66
Author(s):  
Chris Carpenter
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Renewable Energies ◽  
Power Sector ◽  
Reducing Co2 Emission

This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper IPTC 21348, “The Color of Energy: The Competition To Be the Energy of the Future,” by Hon Chung Lau, National University of Singapore, prepared for the 2021 International Petroleum Technology Conference, held virtually 23 March–1 April. The paper has not been peer reviewed. Copyright 2021 International Petroleum Technology Conference. Reproduced by permission. The author of the complete paper, for the purposes of this study, characterizes energies as brown, blue, or green. Brown energies are carbon dioxide (CO2)-emitting fossil fuels, such as gas, oil, or coal. Blue energies use carbon capture and storage (CCUS) technologies to remove the emitted CO2 from brown energies. Green energies are zero- or low-CO2-emitting renewable energies. By analyzing the CO2 intensity and levelized cost of energy of energy carriers of different colors, the author shows that renewable energies are best used in replacing fossil fuels in the power sector, where they have the greatest effect in reducing CO2 emission. Overview By 2017, only 11% of the world’s final consumption came from renewable energies, 85% came from fossil fuel, and 4% came from nuclear energy. Energy consumption can be divided into three sectors: power, transport, and thermal. At the time of writing, 26.4% of global power (electricity) consumption comes from renewable energies. In this sphere, renewable energies are making the most significant contribution in reducing CO2 emission. Forty-one percent of CO2 emission comes from electricity and heat, 21% from transport, and 21% from industry. Consequently, the key to global decarbonization is to decarbonize these three sectors. Green Energy Is Preferred Green energies consist of six major types: solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, wind, hydroelectricity, geothermal, and biomass. If 1 kWh of electricity generated by renewable energy (with the exception of biomass) is used to replace 1 kWh of electricity generated by fossil fuel, the net CO2 savings will amount to 0.8, 0.6, and 0.4 kg for replacing coal, oil, and natural gas, respectively. However, if 1 kWh of renewable electricity is used to generate green hydrogen (H2), which is then used for heat generation in industry, it will yield roughly 0.8 kWh of thermal energy, which replaces the same amount of thermal energy by natural gas. This amounts to a CO2 savings of only 0.16 kg CO2/kWh. Consequently, renewable power has the highest CO2 savings effect if it is used to replace fossil fuel for power generation rather than to replace fossil fuel for heat generation. Decarbonizing the Power Sector The power sector is easiest to decarbonize. The three methods foreseen to decarbonize the power sector are nuclear power, blue electricity generated by fossil-fuel power plants equipped with CCUS, and green electricity produced by renewables. The use of nuclear power plants is a country-specific issue. The dual challenge of nuclear plant safety and nuclear waste storage is a key sustainability issue. Recently, interest has been renewed in the idea of increasing investment in nuclear energy for decarbonizing the power sector. It is noteworthy that the countries for whom more than a quarter of their power generation is provided by nuclear energy are all in Europe.

Simulation of extreme Indian summer monsoon years in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models: Role of cloud processes

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 901-920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari ◽  
Anupam Hazra ◽  
Samir Pokhrel ◽  
Subodh Kumar Saha ◽  
Sai Sruthi Talluri
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

scholarly journals CAS FGOALS-f3-L Large-ensemble Simulations for the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bian He ◽  
Xiaoqi Zhang ◽  
Anmin Duan ◽  
Qing Bao ◽  
Yimin Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Lag ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Polar Amplification ◽  
Intercomparison Project

AbstractLarge-ensemble simulations of the atmosphere-only time-slice experiments for the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) were carried out by the model group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS-f3-L). Eight groups of experiments forced by different combinations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) for pre-industrial, present-day, and future conditions were performed and published. The time-lag method was used to generate the 100 ensemble members, with each member integrating from 1 April 2000 to 30 June 2001 and the first two months as the spin-up period. The basic model responses of the surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were documented. The results indicate that Arctic amplification is mainly caused by Arctic SIC forcing changes. The SAT responses to the Arctic SIC decrease alone show an obvious increase over high latitudes, which is similar to the results from the combined forcing of SST and SIC. However, the change in global precipitation is dominated by the changes in the global SST rather than SIC, partly because tropical precipitation is mainly driven by local SST changes. The uncertainty of the model responses was also investigated through the analysis of the large-ensemble members. The relative roles of SST and SIC, together with their combined influence on Arctic amplification, are also discussed. All of these model datasets will contribute to PAMIP multi-model analysis and improve the understanding of polar amplification.

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