Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate

AbstractThe Japanese power system has unique characteristics with regard to variable renewable energies (VREs), such as higher costs, lower potentials, and less flexibility with the grid connection compared to other major greenhouse-gas-emitting countries. We analyzed the role of renewable energies (REs) in the future Japanese power sector using the results from the model intercomparison project Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison Project (JMIP) using varying emission reduction targets and key technological conditions across scenarios. We considered the uncertainties for future capital costs of solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and batteries in addition to the availability of nuclear and carbon dioxide capture and storage. The results show that REs supply more than 40% of electricity in most of the technology sensitivity scenarios (median 51.0%) when assuming an 80% emission reduction in 2050. The results (excluding scenarios that assume the continuous growth of nuclear power and/or the abundant availability of domestic biomass and carbon-free hydrogen) show that the median VRE shares reach 52.2% in 2050 in the 80% emission reduction scenario. On the contrary, the availability of newly constructed nuclear power, affordable biomass, and carbon-free hydrogen can reduce dependence on VREs to less than 20%. The policy costs were much more sensitive to the capital costs and resource potential of VREs than the battery cost uncertainties. Specifically, while the doubled capital costs of VRE resulted in a 13.0% (inter-model median) increase in the policy cost, the halved capital costs of VREs reduced 8.7% (inter-model median) of the total policy cost. These results imply that lowering the capital costs of VREs would be effective in achieving a long-term emission reduction target considering the current high Japanese VRE costs.

Download Full-text

The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): Experimental design and forcing input data

10.5194/gmd-2016-68 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Davide Zanchettin ◽

Myriam Khodri ◽

Claudia Timmreck ◽

Matthew Toohey ◽

Anja Schmidt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Initial Conditions ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Stratospheric Aerosol ◽

Aerosol Layer ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Climatic Response ◽

Volcanic Forcing ◽

Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the model intercomparison project on the climate response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol dataset for each experiment to eliminate differences in the applied volcanic forcing, and defines a set of initial conditions to determine how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically-forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.

Download Full-text

The FAMOUS climate model (versions XFXWB and XFHCC): description update to version XDBUA

Geoscientific Model Development Discussions ◽

10.5194/gmdd-4-3047-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

pp. 3047-3065

Author(s):

R. S. Smith

Keyword(s):

Water Budget ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Model Description ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Ocean Atmosphere ◽

Atmosphere General Circulation Model ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

The Uk

Abstract. FAMOUS is an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of low resolution, based on version 4.5 of the UK MetOffice Unified Model. Here we update the model description to account for changes in the model as it is used in the CMIP5 EMIC model intercomparison project (EMICmip) and a number of other studies. Most of these changes correct errors found in the code. The EMICmip version of the model (XFXWB) has a better-conserved water budget and additional cooling in some high latitude areas, but otherwise has a similar climatology to previous versions of FAMOUS. A variant of XFXWB is also described, with changes to the dynamics at the top of the model which improve the model climatology (XFHCC).

Download Full-text

A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment designed for climate and chemistry models

Geoscientific Model Development Discussions ◽

10.5194/gmdd-7-5447-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 7 (4) ◽

pp. 5447-5464 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

S. Tilmes ◽

M. J. Mills ◽

U. Niemeier ◽

H. Schmidt ◽

A. Robock ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Model Comparison ◽

Stratospheric Aerosol ◽

Atmospheric Composition ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Data Set ◽

Aerosol Forcing ◽

Input Dataset ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Total Burden ◽

The Impact

Abstract. A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment "G4 specified stratospheric aerosols" (short name: G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmospheric composition, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulphur dioxide (SO2) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments between 2020 and 2100. This stratospheric aerosol distribution, with a total burden of about 2 Tg S has been derived using the ECHAM5-HAM microphysical model, based on a continuous annual tropical emission of 8 Tg SO2 year−1. A ramp-up of geoengineering in 2020 and a ramp-down in 2070 over a period of two years are included in the distribution, while a background aerosol burden should be used for the last 3 decades of the experiment. The performance of this experiment using climate and chemistry models in a multi-model comparison framework will allow us to better understand the significance of the impact of geoengineering and the abrupt termination after 50 years on climate and composition of the atmosphere in a changing environment. The zonal and monthly mean stratospheric aerosol input dataset is available at https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/gcm/geomip-g4-specified-stratospheric-aerosol-data-set.

Download Full-text

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 9 (9) ◽

pp. 3461-3482 ◽

Cited By ~ 251

Author(s):

Brian C. O'Neill ◽

Claudia Tebaldi ◽

Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽

Veronika Eyring ◽

Pierre Friedlingstein ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

21St Century ◽

Integrated Assessment ◽

Climate Model ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Wide Range ◽

Scenario Model ◽

Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

Download Full-text

The Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP): motivation and experimental design

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-11-2581-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. 2581-2608 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Claudia Timmreck ◽

Graham W. Mann ◽

Valentina Aquila ◽

Rene Hommel ◽

Lindsay A. Lee ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Radiative Forcing ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Stratospheric Aerosol ◽

Transport Processes ◽

Aerosol Layer ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Aerosol Model ◽

Model Experiments ◽

Aerosol Forcing ◽

Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Stratospheric Sulfur and its Role in Climate (SSiRC) Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP) explores uncertainties in the processes that connect volcanic emission of sulfur gas species and the radiative forcing associated with the resulting enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer. The central aim of ISA-MIP is to constrain and improve interactive stratospheric aerosol models and reduce uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing by comparing results of standardized model experiments with a range of observations. In this paper we present four co-ordinated inter-model experiments designed to investigate key processes which influence the formation and temporal development of stratospheric aerosol in different time periods of the observational record. The Background (BG) experiment will focus on microphysics and transport processes under volcanically quiescent conditions, when the stratospheric aerosol is controlled by the transport of aerosols and their precursors from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The Transient Aerosol Record (TAR) experiment will explore the role of small- to moderate-magnitude volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic sulfur emissions, and transport processes over the period 1998–2012 and their role in the warming hiatus. Two further experiments will investigate the stratospheric sulfate aerosol evolution after major volcanic eruptions. The Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment (HErSEA) experiment will focus on the uncertainty in the initial emission of recent large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, while the Pinatubo Emulation in Multiple models (PoEMS) experiment will provide a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of the radiative forcing from the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption.

Download Full-text

Effect of model errors in ambient air humidity on the aerosol optical depth obtained via aerosol hygroscopicity in eastern China in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project datasets

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters ◽

10.1080/16742834.2019.1588063 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 162-169 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Wenyuan CHANG

Keyword(s):

Aerosol Optical Depth ◽

Atmospheric Chemistry ◽

Climate Model ◽

Eastern China ◽

Ambient Air ◽

Model Errors ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Air Humidity ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Aerosol Hygroscopicity

Download Full-text

Preindustrial to present-day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (10) ◽

pp. 5277-5298 ◽

Cited By ~ 199

Author(s):

V. Naik ◽

A. Voulgarakis ◽

A. M. Fiore ◽

L. W. Horowitz ◽

J.-F. Lamarque ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Carbon Monoxide ◽

Hydroxyl Radical ◽

Atmospheric Chemistry ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Regional Distribution ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Concentration Changes ◽

Global Mean

Abstract. We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the change in global mean tropospheric CO and NOx burdens (ΔCO/ΔNOx, approximately represents changes in OH sinks versus changes in OH sources) in the models, pointing to a need for better constraints on natural precursor emissions and on the chemical mechanisms in the current generation of chemistry-climate models. For the 1980 to 2000 period, we find that climate warming and a slight increase in mean OH (3.5 ± 2.2%) leads to a 4.3 ± 1.9% decrease in the methane lifetime. Analysing sensitivity simulations performed by 10 models, we find that preindustrial to present-day climate change decreased the methane lifetime by about four months, representing a negative feedback on the climate system. Further, we analysed attribution experiments performed by a subset of models relative to 2000 conditions with only one precursor at a time set to 1860 levels. We find that global mean OH increased by 46.4 ± 12.2% in response to preindustrial to present-day anthropogenic NOx emission increases, and decreased by 17.3 ± 2.3%, 7.6 ± 1.5%, and 3.1 ± 3.0% due to methane burden, and anthropogenic CO, and NMVOC emissions increases, respectively.

Download Full-text

Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-86-2-257 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 86 (2) ◽

pp. 257-266 ◽

Cited By ~ 201

Author(s):

Congbin Fu ◽

Shuyu Wang ◽

Zhe Xiong ◽

William J. Gutowski ◽

Dong-Kyou Lee ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Regional Climate Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Intercomparison Project

Download Full-text

EC-Earth3-AerChem, a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

10.5194/gmd-2020-413 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Twan van Noije ◽

Tommi Bergman ◽

Philippe Le Sager ◽

Declan O'Donnell ◽

Risto Makkonen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

20Th Century ◽

Southern Hemisphere ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Atmospheric Chemistry ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Intercomparison Project

Abstract. This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model and describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and what the new features are compared to the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under pre-industrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The mean energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the pre-industrial control simulation is −0.10 ± 0.25 W m−2 and shows no significant drift. The corresponding mean global surface air temperature is 14.05 ± 0.16 °C, with a small drift of −0.075 ± 0.009 °C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 °C and its transient climate response at 2.1 °C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread among ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared to the ERA5 reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the ensemble mean surface air temperature climatology for 1995–2014 has an average bias of −0.86 ± 0.35 °C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.05 °C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant climate effects from the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 shared socio-economic pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091–2100) of 4.9 °C above the pre-industrial mean. A 0.5 °C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 °C.

Download Full-text