scholarly journals Multi-sliding time windows based changing trend of mean temperature and its association with the global-warming hiatus

2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 232-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Shi ◽  
Panmao Zhai ◽  
Zhihong Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
Changing Trend ◽  
Warming Hiatus

scholarly journals Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin B. Stolpe ◽  
Kevin Cowtan ◽  
Iselin Medhaug ◽  
Reto Knutti
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
Warming Hiatus ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract Global mean temperature change simulated by climate models deviates from the observed temperature increase during decadal-scale periods in the past. In particular, warming during the ‘global warming hiatus’ in the early twenty-first century appears overestimated in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model means. We examine the role of equatorial Pacific variability in these divergences since 1950 by comparing 18 studies that quantify the Pacific contribution to the ‘hiatus’ and earlier periods and by investigating the reasons for differing results. During the ‘global warming hiatus’ from 1992 to 2012, the estimated contributions differ by a factor of five, with multiple linear regression approaches generally indicating a smaller contribution of Pacific variability to global temperature than climate model experiments where the simulated tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) or wind stress anomalies are nudged towards observations. These so-called pacemaker experiments suggest that the ‘hiatus’ is fully explained and possibly over-explained by Pacific variability. Most of the spread across the studies can be attributed to two factors: neglecting the forced signal in tropical Pacific SST, which is often the case in multiple regression studies but not in pacemaker experiments, underestimates the Pacific contribution to global temperature change by a factor of two during the ‘hiatus’; the sensitivity with which the global temperature responds to Pacific variability varies by a factor of two between models on a decadal time scale, questioning the robustness of single model pacemaker experiments. Once we have accounted for these factors, the CMIP5 mean warming adjusted for Pacific variability reproduces the observed annual global mean temperature closely, with a correlation coefficient of 0.985 from 1950 to 2018. The CMIP6 ensemble performs less favourably but improves if the models with the highest transient climate response are omitted from the ensemble mean.

scholarly journals A Link between the Hiatus in Global Warming and North American Drought

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3834-3845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Fanrong Zeng ◽  
Anthony Rosati ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Andrew T. Wittenberg
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North America ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
North American ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
Warming Hiatus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Portions of western North America have experienced prolonged drought over the last decade. This drought has occurred at the same time as the global warming hiatus—a decadal period with little increase in global mean surface temperature. Climate models and observational analyses are used to clarify the dual role of recent tropical Pacific changes in driving both the global warming hiatus and North American drought. When observed tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies are inserted into coupled models, the simulations produce persistent negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, a hiatus in global warming, and drought over North America driven by SST-induced atmospheric circulation anomalies. In the simulations herein the tropical wind anomalies account for 92% of the simulated North American drought during the recent decade, with 8% from anthropogenic radiative forcing changes. This suggests that anthropogenic radiative forcing is not the dominant driver of the current drought, unless the wind changes themselves are driven by anthropogenic radiative forcing. The anomalous tropical winds could also originate from coupled interactions in the tropical Pacific or from forcing outside the tropical Pacific. The model experiments suggest that if the tropical winds were to return to climatological conditions, then the recent tendency toward North American drought would diminish. Alternatively, if the anomalous tropical winds were to persist, then the impact on North American drought would continue; however, the impact of the enhanced Pacific easterlies on global temperature diminishes after a decade or two due to a surface reemergence of warmer water that was initially subducted into the ocean interior.

Extreme North America Winter Storm Season of 2013/14: Roles of Radiative Forcing and the Global Warming Hiatus

2015 ◽  
Vol 96 (12) ◽  
pp. S25-S28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaosong Yang ◽  
G. A. Vecchi ◽  
T. L. Delworth ◽  
K. Paffendorf ◽  
L. Jia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North America ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Winter Storm ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
Warming Hiatus ◽  
Extreme North

scholarly journals Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (17) ◽  
pp. 9029-9038 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kang Wang ◽  
Tingjun Zhang ◽  
Xiangdong Zhang ◽  
Gary D. Clow ◽  
Elchin E. Jafarov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
Alaskan Arctic ◽  
Warming Hiatus

scholarly journals Impact of the global warming hiatus on Andean temperature

2015 ◽  
Vol 120 (9) ◽  
pp. 3745-3757 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathias Vuille ◽  
Eric Franquist ◽  
René Garreaud ◽  
Waldo Sven Lavado Casimiro ◽  
Bolivar Cáceres
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
Warming Hiatus

scholarly journals “Category‐6” supertyphoon Haiyan in global warming hiatus: Contribution from subsurface ocean warming

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (23) ◽  
pp. 8547-8553 ◽  
Author(s):  
I.‐I. Lin ◽  
Iam‐Fei Pun ◽  
Chun‐Chi Lien
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Subsurface Ocean ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
Warming Hiatus

scholarly journals Likely cause found for global warming “hiatus”

Eos ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 95 (34) ◽  
pp. 307-307
Author(s):  
JoAnna Wendel
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
Warming Hiatus

scholarly journals Tracking the Missing Heat from the Global Warming Hiatus

Eos ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Reed
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Warming Hiatus

Despite indications that the Pacific Ocean is helping to take up the world's missing surface heat, it is not storing the heat; oceanographers now find the ocean has moved heat over to the Indian Ocean.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document