The Connection Between the Hadley Circulation and Meridional Structure of Tropical SST during ENSO from 1950 to 1977

The connection between the meridional structure of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and the Hadley circulation (HC) under the effect of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) from 1950 to 1977 is studied. We decompose the HC and zonal mean SST into equatorially symmetric (HES for HC, SES for SST) and asymmetric variations (HEA for HC, SEA for SST) to discuss the modulation of their connection by ENSO. During El Niño events from 1950 to 1977, the HC is less sensitive to the different SST meridional structures and expressed by response ratio. The ratio in La Niña and neutral events is around 4, which is equivalent to the result in the climatology. The reason for the decreased ratio during El Niño events is explored. The interdecadal variation in the linkage between the HC and tropical SST is due to a clear interdecadal shift in the impacts of ENSO on the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST. For the period 1950–1977, when El Niño events occur, larger SST warming amplitude is observed over the northern TIO (0°–15°N, 50°–100°E). However, the southern TIO (15°S–0°, 50°–100°E) shows greater warming amplitude during 1980–2016. The anomalous SST variation over the TIO linked to El Niño events alters the meridional SST distribution, inducing anomalies in the meridional circulation. These results can help us to understand the interdecadal modulation by ENSO of the relationship between tropical SST and the HC.

Interdecadal Change in the Effect of Tibetan Plateau Snow Cover on Spring Precipitation over Eastern China around the Early 1990s

Previous works extensively investigated the influences of the winter-spring Tibetan Plateau snow cover (TP, TPSC) on climate variability over the East Asia. The present work documents an interdecadal-changed impacts of different spring TPSC anomaly (TPSCA) patterns on spring precipitation over eastern China (SPEC) around the early 1990s. It is found that the correlation of eastern and western TPSCA shifts from negative to positive around 1990. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applying onto the spring TPSCA during 1970–1989 (P1) and during 1991–2017 (P2) adds additional support for such interdecadal change in the relationship between the eastern and western TPSCA. Specifically, the leading EOF (EOF1) mode in P1 shows an out-of-phase pattern with opposite signals lying over the eastern and western TP, while the counterpart in P2 is characterized by an in-phase pattern over the entire TP. Corresponding to more (less) snow cover in the eastern (western) TP in P1, a significant TP cold cyclone (TPCC) and a downstream anticyclone over the western North Pacific are observed. Anomalous southerly flow prevailing east to TPCC could bring the warm-wet air from tropics to the coast of East Asian, which largely enhances the spring precipitation south to Yangtze River Valley (YRV). By contrast, regarding more snow cover both in the eastern and western TP in P2, a relatively northward-displaced and wider TPCC sweeps over the entire TP compared with the TPSC-induced TPCC in P1. Moreover, there are significant sinking anomalies observed in the downstream YRV-HRV region, which leads to suppressed spring precipitation over there via the dry-cold advection process. Hence, these discrepancies of local and downstream atmospheric circulation induced by the out-of-phase and in-phase TPSCA patterns in two epochs play an important role in resulting in the interdecadal shift of the SPEC anomaly pattern around 1990.

Interdecadal shift of the relationship between ENSO and winter synoptic temperature variability over the Asian–Pacific–American region in the 1980s

In this study, the interdecadal variability of the relationship between ENSO and winter synoptic temperature variability (STV) over the Asian-Pacific-American region is investigated based on observational data from 1951 to 2018. An interdecadal shift in the ENSO-STV relationship occurred in the 1980s over Eastern China, changing from significant in Period 1 (P1, 1951-1987) to insignificant in Period 2 (P2, 1988-2018). But the ENSO-STV relationship is significantly stable over North America for the whole period. In addition, a possible reason for this interdecadal shift in the ENSO-STV relationship over Eastern China is also investigated. During P1, the ENSO pattern is significantly correlated to the temperature gradient over Northeast Asia, which is the key region influencing the intensification of extratropical eddies. The intensification of extratropical eddies over Northeast Asia is directly associated with the magnitude of STV over Eastern China. But in P2, the ENSO pattern is not related to the temperature over Northeast Asia. Therefore, the change in the ENSO pattern from P1 to P2 contributes to the interdecadal shift in the ENSO-STV relationship in the 1980s over Eastern China by influencing the temperature gradient over Northeast Asia, while ENSO can influence the temperature gradient over North America for the whole period. Furthermore, the possible role of the ENSO patterns in P1 and P2 is also examined by using an atmospheric general circulation model, highlighting that the pattern of SST variation is a determining factor in regulating STV in different regions.

The Interdecadal Shift of ENSO Properties in 1999/2000: A Review

Following the interdecadal shift of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties that occurred in 1976/77, another regime shift happened in 1999/2000 that featured a decrease of variability and an increase in ENSO frequency. Specifically, the frequency spectrum of Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature shifted from dominant variations at quasi-quadrennial (~4 yr) periods during 1979–99 to weaker fluctuations at quasi-biennial (~2 yr) periods during 2000–18. Also, the spectrum of warm water volume (WWV) index had almost no peak in 2000–18, implying a nearly white noise process. The regime shift was associated with an enhanced zonal gradient of the mean state, a westward shift in the atmosphere–ocean coupling in the tropical Pacific, and an increase in the static stability of the troposphere. This shift had several important implications. The whitening of the subsurface ocean temperature led to a breakdown of the relationship between WWV and ENSO, reducing the efficacy of WWV as a key predictor for ENSO and thus leading to a decrease in ENSO prediction skill. Another consequence of the higher ENSO frequency after 1999/2000 was that the forecasted peak of sea surface temperature anomaly often lagged that observed by several months, and the lag increased with the lead time. The ENSO regime shift may have altered ENSO influences on extratropical climate. Thus, the regime shift of ENSO in 1999/2000 as well as the model default may account for the higher false alarm and lower skill in predicting ENSO since 1999/2000.