Abstract
Dew point pressure (DPP) is a key variable that may be needed to predict the condensate to gas ratio behavior of a reservoir along with some production/completion related issues and calibrate/constrain the EOS models for integrated modeling. However, DPP is a challenging property in terms of its predictability. Recognizing the complexities, we present a state-of-the-art method for DPP prediction using advanced machine learning (ML) techniques. We compare the outcomes of our methodology with that of published empirical correlation-based approaches on two datasets with small sizes and different inputs. Our ML method noticeably outperforms the correlation-based predictors while also showing its flexibility and robustness even with small training datasets provided various classes of fluids are represented within the datasets. We have collected the condensate PVT data from public domain resources and GeoMark RFDBASE containing dew point pressure (the target variable), and the compositional data (mole percentage of each component), temperature, molecular weight (MW), MW and specific gravity (SG) of heptane plus as input variables. Using domain knowledge, before embarking the study, we have extensively checked the measurement quality and the outcomes using statistical techniques. We then apply advanced ML techniques to train predictive models with cross-validation to avoid overfitting the models to the small datasets. We compare our models against the best published DDP predictors with empirical correlation-based techniques. For fair comparisons, the correlation-based predictors are also trained using the underlying datasets. In order to improve the outcomes and using the generalized input data, pseudo-critical properties and artificial proxy features are also employed.
A modified gas flow model in the near wellbore region below dew point pressure