The identification of potential rockfall and the accurate prediction of its trajectory are critical in prevention and mitigation of rockfall hazard. It is an important precondition to assess the uncertainty of rockfall motion, study the effective identification technology of potential rockfall, predict the rockfall trajectory, and calculate the threatened area by rockfall hazards. In this study, field investigations and numerical simulations were carried out to identify potential rockfall on a weathered rock slope. As a case study, our calculations results show that the area of tensile stress concentration and plastic failure is the potential area where the rockmass will fall off the surface of the weathered rock slope. A mathematical model for calculating the rockfall influence area of the weathered rock slope was established based on the optimization theory, neural network technology, and genetic optimization algorithm. The rockfall influence area of the weathered rock slope was determined using maximum horizontal distance of rockfall in the specified slope cross sections and described on the topographic map using spline curves to form a closed possibly vulnerable area. As a case study, our calculations confirm that the distributions of the plastic failure and tensile stress areas obtained from the numerical simulations are consistent with the dangerous rock masses identified by field investigations at Guanyindong Slope that is a popular tourist scenic spot in Zhejiang Province, China. In this study, it has been indicated that the influence area can be used as the basis for the design of passive protection methods for rock slopes vulnerable to rockfall hazards.
Quantitative analysis of spatial variability of geotechnical parameters