Dynamic land use changes in metropolitan areas are global phenomena. The influence of urbanisation processes on farmland is twofold: urban encroachments predominantly take place at the expense of farmland, and also result in farmland abandonment processes, especially in Central Eastern and Southern Europe. This paper analyses determinants of farmland abandonment in 280 municipalities situated in six selected Polish metropolitan areas. The analysis, which covers secondary statistical data as well as primary data collected via a survey among experts, applies the regression tree method. Within the six selected metropolitan areas nearly 9% of the farmland is permanently excluded from agricultural production (actual abandonment), plus another 11.5% is currently not being used for production (semi-abandonment). For actual abandonment, physical and economic sizes of farms, part-time farming, and soil quality constitute the most relevant determinants. Socio-economic variables play a more important role in explaining semi-abandonment than actual abandonment. Temporary exclusion of farmland from agricultural production is connected with urbanisation processes. Higher shares of built-up and urbanised areas, higher population densities, and positive migration rates result in higher shares of semi-abandonment. Naturally, areas characterised by agrarian fragmentation, where due to low agricultural incomes farmers more often decided to abandon agricultural production, were, in particular, subject to this process.
Determinants of Farmland Abandonment in Selected Metropolitan Areas of Poland: A Spatial Analysis on the Basis of Regression Trees and Interviews with Experts
