Abstract. Extreme particulate matter (PM) air pollution of January 2013 in China was found to be associated with anomalous large-scale circulation patterns characterized by an eastward extension of the Siberian High (SH). We developed a Siberian High position index (SHPI), which depicts the mean longitudinal position of SH, as a new indicator of the large-scale circulation pattern that controls wintertime air quality in China. This SHPI explains 58 % (correlation coefficient of 0.76) of the interannual variability of wintertime aerosol optical depth (AOD) derived by MODIS over north China (NC) during 2000–2013, whereas the intensity-based conventional Siberian High Index (SHI) shows essentially no skill in predicting the AOD variability. On the monthly scale, some high-AOD months for NC are accompanied with extremely high SHPIs; notably, extreme PM pollution of January 2013 can be explained by the SHPI value exceeding 2.6 standard deviation of the 2000–2013 mean. When the SH extends eastward, thus higher SHPI, prevailing northwesterly winds over NC are suppressed not only in the lower troposphere but also in the middle troposphere, leading to reduced southward transport of pollution from NC to south China (SC). As a consequence, the SHPI exhibits a significantly negative correlation of −0.82 with MODIS AOD over SC during 2000–2013, although the robustness of this correlation depends on that of satellite-derived AOD. The suppressed northwesterly winds during high-SHPI winters also lead to increased relative humidity (RH) over NC. Both the wind and RH changes are responsible for enhanced PM pollution over north China during the high-SHPI winters.
Scenario development for estimating potential climate change impacts on crop production in the North China Plain
