Role and impact of Siberian High on the temporal variation of Indian northeast monsoon rainfall

The relation between the intensity of Siberian High, defined as the mean sea level pressure over the Siberian region bounded by 87.5 & 102.5° E longitudes and 47.5 & 52.5° N latitudes (PSH) and Indian northeast monsoon rainfall has been studied in antecedent and concurrent modes based on monthly/seasonal mean PSH and monthly/seasonal rainfall data of Tamil Nadu (NMR) for the 34 year period, 1971 to 2004. It has been found that a positive relationship exists between the PSH and NMR of October-November (ON) which is significant in the antecedent mode [PSH(AS/Sep)] and modest in concurrent mode. The relationship turns negative for NMR (Dec) with both PSH(Sep) (antecedent) and PSH(Dec) (concurrent). By and large, negative anomaly profile of PSH during September-November (SON) followed by a positive PSH (Dec) anomaly is associated with a deficient NMR, but, a normal to positive PSH anomaly profile in SON becoming negative in December is associated with an excess NMR. The manifestation of PSH on NMR has been shown to be by way of modulating the strength of low level easterlies over the Bay of Bengal off the southeast coast of peninsular India as well as the latitudinal positions of Sub Tropical Ridge at 200 hPa (STR) and Equatorial Trough at 850 hPa (ET) over India. An intense PSH (Sep) is associated with strengthening of easterlies over the Bay of Bengal as well as southward location of STR/ET thereby favouring a good NMR (ON). During December, a weaker than normal PSH (Dec) is associated with northward location of ET from its normal latitudinal position near the equator which becomes conducive for good NMR(Dec). That a weaker than normal PSH in December is associated with good NMR(Dec) is comprehended from an analysis of time series of PSH. It has been found that the PSH itself undergoes a phase change in December on most occasions, i.e., an intense PSH (Nov) is by and large, followed by a weaker than normal PSH (Dec) and vice versa.

Diverse Inter-Annual Variations of Winter Siberian High and Link With Eurasian Snow in Observation and BCC-CSM2-MR Coupled Model Simulation

An observational study illustrates that three distinct modes of winter Siberian high variability exist in observations at the inter-annual time scale. In this paper, we compare the connection between these diverse Siberian high variation modes with pre-autumn and simultaneous Eurasian snow cover in an observation and BCC-CSM2-MR coupled climate model run under pre-industrial conditions from the CMIP6 project. Our analyses indicate that the inter-annual variation of observed Siberian high modes do have a connection with pre-autumn and simultaneous Eurasian snow cover anomalies, but the BCC-CSM2-MR coupled climate model does not capture the observed diverse Eurasian snow–Siberian high relationships well. The BCC-CSM2-MR coupled climate model can partly reproduce the observed Siberian high variation modes, but fail to capture the spatial distribution and statistics of boreal fall and winter Eurasian snowpack, which is a key facet of simulated diverse Siberian high variability irrespective of the influence of Eurasian snow cover.

The impact of large-scale circulation on daily fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) over major populated regions of China in winter

The influence of large-scale circulation on daily PM2.5 variability through its direct effect on key regional meteorological variables is examined over three major populated regions of China: Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD). In BTH, a shallow East Asian trough curbs northerly cold and dry air from the Siberian High, enhancing PM2.5 pollution levels. Weak southerly winds in eastern and southern China, associated with a weakened Siberian High, suppress horizontal dispersion, contributing to air pollution accumulation over YRD. In PRD, weak southerly winds and precipitation deficits over southern China are conducive to high PM2.5 pollution levels. To account for these dominant large-scale circulation – PM2.5 relationships, we propose three new circulation-based indices for predicting different levels of air pollution based on regional PM2.5 concentrations in each region: a 500 hPa geopotential height-based index for BTH, a sea level pressure-based index for YRD and an 850 hPa meridional wind-based index for PRD. These three indices can effectively distinguish clean days from heavily polluted days in these regions, assuming variation is solely due to meteorology. We also find that including the most important regional meteorological variable in each region improves the performance of the circulation-based indices in predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations on the regional scale. These results are beneficial to understanding and forecasting the occurrence of heavily polluted PM2.5 days in BTH, YRD and PRD from a large-scale perspective.

Strengthened Impacts of November Snow Cover Over Siberia on the Out-of-phase Change in the Siberian High Between December and January Since 2000 and Implication for Intraseasonal Climate Prediction

This study investigates the out-of-phase change in the Siberian High (SH) between December and January (stronger than normal in December and weaker than normal in January, and vice versa). The results show that the monthly reversal frequency of the SH between December and January increases significantly after 2000 from 30% (1981–2000) to 63% (2001-2019). Correspondingly, the influence of November snow cover over Siberia on the phase reversal of the SH has intensified after 2000. The reasons may be as follows. Higher snow depth over Siberia (SSD) in November corresponds to stronger diabatic cooling and increased snow accumulation over Siberia in November and December, which may strengthen the SH in December via the positive feedback of snow albedo. The dynamic mechanisms between the higher SSD in November and weaker SH in January are further investigated from the perspective of troposphere–stratosphere interaction. Such anomalously higher SSD with strong upward heat flux induces the upward-propagating wave activity flux in November and December over the Urals and Siberia, leading to a weaker and warmer stratospheric polar vortex in January. Subsequently, the anomalies of the stratospheric polar vortex signal propagate downwards, giving rise to a negative Arctic Oscillation–like structure in the troposphere and a weakening of the SH in January. This mechanism can be partly reproduced in CMIP6. Additionally, the variability of the September–October Arctic sea ice mainly leads to coherent variations of the SH in December and January via the eddy–mean flow interaction before 2000. Furthermore, the preceding November snow cover over Siberia enhances the intraseasonal prediction skill for the winter SH after 2000. Meanwhile, considering the previous November SSD, the prediction accuracy for the out-of-phase change in the SH between December and January increases from 16% (outputs of the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System, version 2) to 75%.

The impact of large-scale circulation on daily fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in major populated regions of China during winter

<p>With rapid economic growth and urbanization, air pollution episodes with high levels of particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) have become common in China. While emissions of pollutant precursors are important, meteorology also plays a major role in pollution episodes, especially in winter. We examine the influence of the dominant large-scale circulation and the key regional meteorological features on PM<sub>2.5</sub> over three major regions of China: Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD). The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is primarily studied, including some of its main large-scale components such as the East Asian trough and the Siberian high, as it influences PM<sub>2.5 </sub>differently in different parts of China. In the BTH region, the shallow East Asian trough curbs the invasion of northerly cold and dry air from the Siberian high which induces high relative humidity and heavy pollution, possibly via relative humidity-promoted aerosol formation and growth. A weak southerly wind in Eastern and Southern China associated with a weakened Siberian high suppresses horizontal dispersion, contributing to pollution accumulation over YRD. In addition, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the dominant mode of global ocean-atmosphere interaction has a substantial modulation on precipitation over southern China. In the PRD, weak southerly winds and precipitation deficits over southern China are conducive to atmospheric pollution possibly via reduced wet deposition. Furthermore, we construct new circulation-based indices based on the dominant large-scale circulation: a 500 hPa geopotential height-based index for BTH, a sea level pressure-based index for YRD and an 850 hPa meridional wind-based index for PRD. These three indices can effectively distinguish different levels of pollution over BTH, YRD and PRD, respectively. We also show how additional regional meteorological variables can improve the prediction of regional PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations for these three regions. These results are beneficial to understanding and forecasting the occurrence of severely polluted days for BTH, YRD and PRD from a large-scale perspective.</p>

A Possible Linkage between Dust Frequency and the Siberian High in March over Northeast Asia

Spring dust frequency in northeast Asia has been investigated using various approaches to understand the mechanisms of dust emission and transport. However, little attention has been paid to the linkage between dust activity and the Siberian High (SH), particularly when the SH pressure system is highly variable. In this study, we characterize the possible physical mechanisms of dust emission and transport associated with the Siberian High Intensity (SHI) and Siberian High Position Index (SHPI) in March using 18 years of ground-based observations and reanalysis data. We found that when the SHI was strong and the SH’s center was farther east (“Strong–East period”), surface and atmospheric temperatures were cooler than when the SHI was weak and the SH’s center was farther west (“Weak-West period”), due to anomalous anticyclonic pressure and strong easterlies. As a result, a reduction in the meridional temperature gradient in the lower atmosphere suppressed dust emission and transport, due to stagnant atmospheric conditions. This anomalous anticyclonic pressure in the Strong-East case seems to reduce the development of extratropical cyclones (ETC) in northeast Asia, leading to a less effective dust transport. A case study with composite analysis also showed a similar physical mechanism: stagnant air accompanying weakened westerlies in the Strong-East period suppressed dust transport to South Korea. Our findings reveal that the intensity and position of the SH can be utilized to identify spring transboundary air pollutants in northeast Asia.