A generic prediction interval estimation method for quantifying the uncertainties in ultra-short-term building cooling load prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 173 ◽  
pp. 115261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaobo Zhang ◽  
Yang Zhao ◽  
Cheng Fan ◽  
Tingting Li ◽  
Xuejun Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Interval Estimation ◽  
Cooling Load ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Building Cooling

A Comparison of NARX and BP Neural Network in Short-Term Building Cooling Load Prediction

2014 ◽  
Vol 513-517 ◽  
pp. 1545-1548 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Li Xu ◽  
Hong Xun Chen ◽  
Wang Guo ◽  
Qiu Yu Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Cooling Load ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Building Cooling

A comparison of nonlinear autoregression with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural network and back-propagation (BP) neural network in short-term prediction of building cooling load is presented in this dissertation. Both predictive models have been applied in a group of commercial buildings and analysis of prediction errors has been highlighted. Training and testing data for both prediction models have been generated from DeST (Designers Simulation Toolkits) with climate data of Shanghai. The simulation results indicate that NARX method can achieve better accuracy and generalization ability than traditional method of BP neural network. This work provides a key support in smooth and optimizing control in air-conditioning system.

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