Influence of eddies and tropical cyclone heat potential on intensity changes of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

Abstract This analysis examines the predictability of several key forecasting parameters using the ECMWF Variable Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) including tropical cyclone genesis, pregenesis and postgenesis track and intensity projections, and regional outlooks of tropical cyclone activity for the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Based on the evaluation period from 2007 to 2010, the VarEPS TC genesis forecasts demonstrate low false-alarm rates and moderate to high probabilities of detection for lead times of 1–7 days. In addition, VarEPS pregenesis track forecasts on average perform better than VarEPS postgenesis forecasts through 120 h and feature a total track error growth of 41 n mi day−1. VarEPS provides superior postgenesis track forecasts for lead times greater than 12 h compared to other models, including the Met Office global model (UKMET), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and the Global Forecasting System (GFS), and slightly lower track errors than the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This paper concludes with a discussion of how VarEPS can provide much of this extended predictability within a probabilistic framework for the region.

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Genesis potential parameter using satellite derived daily tropical cyclone heat potential for North Indian ocean

International Journal of Remote Sensing ◽

10.1080/01431161.2020.1795299 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 41 (23) ◽

pp. 8934-8947

Author(s):

Satyeshkumar Ghetiya ◽

R.K. Nayak

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Indian Ocean ◽

North Indian Ocean ◽

Potential Parameter ◽

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential ◽

Heat Potential ◽

Genesis Potential Parameter

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On tropical cyclone frequency and the warm pool area

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-9-635-2009 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 635-645 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

R. E. Benestad

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Indian Ocean ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Warm Pool ◽

North Indian Ocean ◽

North West ◽

The North ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Pool Area

Abstract. The proposition that the rate of tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the "warm pool" is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of tropical cyclones. An analysis based on empirical data from the Northern Hemisphere is presented, where the warm pool associated with tropical cyclone activity is defined as the area, A, enclosed by the 26.5°C SST isotherm. Similar analysis was applied to the temperature weighted area AT with similar results. An intriguing non-linear relationship of high statistical significance was found between the temperature weighted area in the North Atlantic and the North-West Pacific on the one hand and the number of cyclones, N, in the same ocean basin on the other, but this pattern was not found over the North Indian Ocean. A simple statistical model was developed, based on the historical relationship between N and A. The simple model was then validated against independent inter-annual variations in the seasonal cyclone counts in the North Atlantic, but the correlation was not statistically significant in the North-West Pacific. No correlation, however, was found between N and A in the North Indian Ocean. A non-linear relationship between the cyclone number and temperature weighted area may in some ocean basins explain both why there has not been any linear trend in the number of cyclones over time as well as the recent upturn in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. The results also suggest that the notion of the number of tropical cyclones being insensitive to the area A is a misconception.

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On the relationship between intensity changes and rainfall distribution in tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

International Journal of Climatology ◽

10.1002/joc.6315 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 40 (4) ◽

pp. 2015-2025 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Kumar Ankur ◽

Nanda Kishore Reddy Busireddy ◽

Krishna K. Osuri ◽

Dev Niyogi

Keyword(s):

Indian Ocean ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

North Indian Ocean ◽

Rainfall Distribution ◽

The North ◽

Intensity Changes ◽

The Relationship

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Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8800 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Abraham Torres ◽

Russell Glazer ◽

Erika Coppola ◽

Xuejie Gao ◽

Kevin Hodges ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Indian Ocean ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

North Atlantic ◽

North Indian Ocean ◽

Eastern Pacific ◽

Northwest Pacific ◽

Future Projections ◽

The North ◽

The Future

<p>Under the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative, simulations of tropical cyclones were performed using the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model 4 (RegCM4) at a spatial resolution of 25 km over four domains (Australasia, Central America, Western Pacific and South Asia). These simulations cover the 130-year period, 1970-2099, for two Representative Concentration Pathways, 2.6 (RCP2.6) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios and were driven by three General Circulation Models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). In these simulations, the potential changes in TC activity for future climate conditions over five areas of tropical cyclone formation (North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific, North Atlantic, Australasia and Eastern Pacific) are investigated, using an objective algorithm to identify and track them. The RegCM4 simulations driven by GCMs are evaluated for the period of 1995&#8211;2014 by comparing them with the observed tropical cyclone data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS); then the changes in two future periods (2041-2016 and 2080&#8211;2099), relative to the baseline period (1995&#8211;2014), are analyzed for RegCM4 simulations driven by GCMs. Preliminary results show that RegCM4 simulations driven by GCMs are capable of most of the features of the observed tropical cyclone climatology, and the future projections show an increase in the number of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions. These changes are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. On the other hand, the North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in the future storm rainfall rate and the frequency of the most intense tropical cyclones over almost all the domains. Our study shows robust and statistically significant responses, often, but not always, in line with previous studies. This implies that a robust assessment of tropical cyclone changes requires analyses of ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models capable of representing the response of different characteristics of different key atmospheric factors.</p>

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Tropical cyclone frequency in the north Indian Ocean in relation to southern oscillation phenomenon

MAUSAM ◽

10.54302/mausam.v52i3.1720 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 52 (3) ◽

pp. 511-514

Author(s):

O. P. SINGH ◽

TARIQ MASOOD ALI KHAN ◽

MD. SAZEDUR RAHMAN

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Indian Ocean ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Bay Of Bengal ◽

Arabian Sea ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

North Indian Ocean ◽

Tropical Cyclone Frequency ◽

The North ◽

Cyclone Frequency

The present paper deals with the influence of Southern Oscillation (SO) on the frequency of tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. The results show that during the negative phase of SO the frequency of tropical cyclones and depressions over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea diminishes in May which is most important pre-monsoon cyclone month. The correlation coefficient between the frequency of cyclones and depressions and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is +0.3 which is significant at 99% level. Post-monsoon cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal during November shows a significant positive correlation with SOl implying that it also decreases during the negative phase of SO. Thus there is a reduction in the tropical cyclone frequency over the Bay of Bengal during both intense cyclone months May and November in EI-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) epochs. Therefore it would not be correct to say that ENSO has no impact on the cyclogenesis in the north Indian Ocean. It is true that ENSO has no significant impact on the frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea. ENSO also seems to affect the rate of intensification of depressions to cyclone stage. The rate of intensification increases in May and diminishes in November in the north Indian Ocean during ENSO. The results are based on the analysis of monthly frequencies of tropical cyclones and depressions and SOI for the 100 year period from 1891-1990.

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