Application of Grey System Theory in the Development of a Runoff Prediction Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 92 (4) ◽  
pp. 521-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.V. Trivedi ◽  
J.K. Singh
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Runoff Prediction

scholarly journals Main Driving Factors and Prediction Model of Total Health Expenditure in China: A Study Based on Grey System Theory

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huanhuan Jia ◽  
Xihe Yu ◽  
Jianxing Yu ◽  
Zhou Zheng ◽  
Yingying Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
System Reform ◽  
Total Health Expenditure ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Correlation Degree

Abstract Background: The continuous increase in total health expenditure has become a social issue of common concern in most countries. In China, the total health expenditure still maintains a fast growth trend which is much higher than the growth of the country’s economy, although the new health system reform had been going on for 8 years until 2017. The aims of the current study were thus to investigate the main driving factors affecting total health expenditure and to establish a prediction model. Methods: Gray system theory was employed to explore the correlation degree between total health expenditure and 13 hot spots from the fields of economy, population, health service utilization, and public policy using national data in China from 2009 to 2017. Besides, a prediction model was established using the main driving factors among the 13 hot spots. Results: The main driving factors related to the changes of total health expenditure were public policy (ranked first), health development, economics, and aging, which correlation degrees were more than 0.7. The average error of the GM(1,7) model was 3.17%, the correlation degree, β , between the predicted simulation sequence and the original sequence was 0.78, the variance ratio, C, was 0.138, and the probability of residuals, P, was 1.0000. Therefore, the prediction model of total health expenditure with 6 main driving factors was excellent. Conclusion: The paper finds that since the new health system reform in China, government policies and social invest have contributed greatly to reducing the burden of health expenditure. However, the development of economic and the increase in the elderly population, which are main driving factors, will increase the total health expenditure, so improving the efficiency of investment and providing the precautionary health care and nursing for the elderly are crucial. Besides, the grey system theory had a good application in the field of health economics and policy.

Research on Duration Prediction of the Coupled Task Set Based on the Grey System Theory

2012 ◽  
Vol 220-223 ◽  
pp. 169-173
Author(s):  
Peng Jia ◽  
Qi Gao ◽  
Rong Zhen Xu ◽  
Xiao Chen Zheng ◽  
Gang Liu
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Task Set ◽  
Posterior Variance ◽  
Duration Prediction

In order to solve the problem of duration predicting in the project with poor information, small sample and uncertainty, a method based on grey system theory is put forward to predicting the duration of the coupled task set. A grey duration prediction model GM(1,1) is built, and the accuracy of the model is tested through residual, degree of incidence and posterior variance. Finally, the feasibility of the prediction model is verified by a practical application case.

A Grey System Theory-Based Default Prediction Model for Construction Firms

2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 120-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Ping Tserng ◽  
Thanh Long Ngo ◽  
Po Cheng Chen ◽  
Le Quyen Tran
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Construction Firms ◽  
Default Prediction

Prediction of Technical Reserves Based on Grey Model — GM(1,1): Evidence from Non-life Egyptian Insurance Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 852-860
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Elsayed ◽  
◽  
Amr Soliman ◽  
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Insurance Market ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Loss Ratio ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Mathematical Technique ◽  
Supervisory Authority ◽  
Error Ratio ◽  
Using Data

Grey system theory is a mathematical technique used to predict data with known and unknown characteristics. The aim of our research is to forecast the future amount of technical reserves (outstanding claims reserve, loss ratio fluctuations reserve and unearned premiums reserve) up to 2029/2030. This study applies the Grey Model GM(1,1) using data obtained from the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) over the period from 2005/2006 to 2015/2016 for non-life Egyptian insurance market. We found that the predicted amounts of outstanding claims reserve and loss ratio fluctuations reserve are highly significant than the unearned premiums reserve according to the value of Posterior Error Ratio (PER).

Application of Grey System Theory to tree growth prediction

2000 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang Jing ◽  
Hou Yuesong ◽  
Li Weilin ◽  
Cheng Wenhui
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Growth Prediction
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