Prediction of Technical Reserves Based on Grey Model — GM(1,1): Evidence from Non-life Egyptian Insurance Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 852-860
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Elsayed ◽  
◽  
Amr Soliman ◽  
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Insurance Market ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Loss Ratio ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Mathematical Technique ◽  
Supervisory Authority ◽  
Error Ratio ◽  
Using Data

Grey system theory is a mathematical technique used to predict data with known and unknown characteristics. The aim of our research is to forecast the future amount of technical reserves (outstanding claims reserve, loss ratio fluctuations reserve and unearned premiums reserve) up to 2029/2030. This study applies the Grey Model GM(1,1) using data obtained from the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) over the period from 2005/2006 to 2015/2016 for non-life Egyptian insurance market. We found that the predicted amounts of outstanding claims reserve and loss ratio fluctuations reserve are highly significant than the unearned premiums reserve according to the value of Posterior Error Ratio (PER).

Research and Application of Grey Predictive Model Based on Wavelet Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 170-173 ◽  
pp. 2912-2916
Author(s):  
Hai Ping Xiao ◽  
Lan Lan Chen ◽  
Yi Qiang Chen ◽  
Zhong Qun Guo
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Wavelet Transformation ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Predicting Model ◽  
Feasible Method

It is the scientific basis of instructing the project to produce and operate that the deformation is monitored, and the analysis and prediction in constructing and operating of project is one of the important jobs. In order to analyze and predict the deformation of the project more timely and accurately, the paper analyzed and established the feasibility of wavelet-grey predicting model on the basis of the grey system theory in modeling limitations and the characteristics of wavelet transformation. With the comparison of predictive datas in two kinds of models, the results show, the predictive datas of the wavelet-grey model are more accurately than grey model’s, and has achieved good results in prediction of the engineering, is a feasible method.

scholarly journals Outlier Detection and Correction for the Deviations of Tooth Profiles of Gears

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-62
Author(s):  
Han Lianfu ◽  
Fu Changfeng ◽  
Wang Jun ◽  
Tang Wenyan
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Outlier Detection ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Preprocessing Method ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Modeling Data

To decrease the influence of outlier on the measurement of tooth profiles, this paper proposes a method of outlier detection and correction based on the grey system theory. After studying the characteristics of outliers from the deviations of tooth profiles, this paper proposes a preprocessing method for the modeling data which include abnormal value, and establishes an outlier detection and correction model for the deviations of tooth profiles. Simulation results show that the precision of ONDGM(1,1)(one order and one variable non-homogenous discrete grey model whose outlier is processed by the preprocessing method proposed in this paper) is higher than that of NDGM(1,1)(one order and one variable non-homogenous discrete grey model), and the ONDGM(1,1) is more suitable than the NDGM(1,1) for dealing with the outliers from the deviations of tooth profiles. The experiment results show that the outlier detection and correction model detects and corrects the outliers from the deviations of tooth profiles, and the correction value of the outlier is basically in accordance with the actual deviation. Therefore, the method of outlier detection and correction decreases the influence of outlier and improves the precision in the measurement of tooth profiles.

Applications of Grey System Theory to Construction Control of Cable-Stayed Bridge

2010 ◽  
Vol 163-167 ◽  
pp. 2502-2506
Author(s):  
Fang Wen Wu ◽  
Cheng Feng Xue
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Construction Control ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Feedback Information ◽  
Technology System ◽  
Cable Stayed Bridge ◽  
Main Girder

Based on the grey system theory, and combined with the construction features of cable-stayed bridges and construction control method, the paper takes the cable-stayed bridge under construction as the interferential grey technology system with physical prototype and analyzes the random process as grey process in line with grey system theory. The grey model is established by the initialize heights of main girder and cables’ tension as two control inputs of system during the construction of the cable-stayed bridge. Through the feedback information and rectifying the grey model, the initialize heights of main girder and the cable force of next construction stage are predicted in order to control the bridge configuration and cable tension successfully.

scholarly journals Integrating Data Envelopment Analysis and Grey System Theory to Access Ho Chi Minh City Power Corporation Performance Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nhu-Ty Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Data Envelopment Analysis ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Malmquist Productivity Index ◽  
Productivity Index ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Corporation Performance ◽  
Using Data

Any study of the development of the economy must take into account the role of the electricity sector. This is the sector promoting production, improving competitiveness, and attracting investment. With the motto "electricity goes one step ahead," the power sector has contributed to the restructuring of the industry, economic recovery and growth, security and defense. Specifically, agriculture, forestry and fishery production activities of rural and mountainous areas have been oriented toward commodity and export markets. Improved services and quality of electricity have encouraged domestic and foreign businesses to be comfortable and expand their production. This study will provide some insights after combining the results of Data Envelopment Analysis and Grey System Theory – GM(1,1). Using Data Envelopment Analysis, the researcher input some performance attributes, classify them as inputs and outputs, and then use them for Data Envelopment Analysis researches. For evaluating this industry, the researcher used Malmquist Productivity Index from 2012 to 2016 and used GM (1,1) for forecasting, which provides better “Past – Present – Future” insights for decision makers.

A grey-based assessment approach to the site selection of a desalination plant in Libya

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 366-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim A. Badi ◽  
Ali M. Abdulshahed ◽  
Ali Shetwan ◽  
Mohamed Ali Ballem
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Site Selection ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Desalination Plant ◽  
A Site ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a site selection method using grey system theory for a desalination plant in Libya. Design/methodology/approach In order to tackle incompleteness and imprecision of human’s judgments, grey numbers were used. This work uses a grey-based approach to represent decision makers’ comparison judgments and extent analysis method to select the best site. Therefore, a real case study of a selection problem of a site selection of desalination plant in Libya was used to illustrate the proposed approach. Findings Site selection in a desalination plant can be one of the most important decisions in planning a desalination project. The decision affects both the project cost and potentially the project schedule. Based on the results of grey model, a clear order of these sites and the degree of preference are obtained. This paper presents a way to improve a site selection by using a grey model, especially in a complex environment like Libya. Originality/value To the best knowledge of the authors, there is no literature for site selection using grey system theory in a desalination plant in Libya. This attempt may well enhance and facilitate the decision-making process of the best site in the country involved in this research.

Analysis of circular economy of E-commerce market based on grey model under the background of big data

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Peng ◽  
Xiang Li ◽  
Xiao Yang
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Circular Economy ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Theory Model ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Content Type

PurposeIn order to more accurately predict the dynamics of the e-commerce market and increase the comprehensive value of the circular e-commerce industry, proposes to use Grey system theory to analyze the circular economy of the e-commerce market.Design/methodology/approachConstruct a Grey system theory model, analyze the big data of e-commerce and circular economy of the e-commerce market and predict the development potential of China's e-commerce market.FindingsThe results show that the Grey system theory model can play an important role in the data analysis of circular economy of the e-commerce market.Originality/valueUse Grey model to analyze e-commerce data, discover e-commerce market rules and problems and then optimize e-commerce market.

Study and Application of Grey System Theory for Fatigue Life Prediction

2009 ◽  
Vol 413-414 ◽  
pp. 717-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Liang Wang ◽  
Hong Nie ◽  
Quan Jiang
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Fatigue Life ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Fatigue Life Prediction ◽  
New Method ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Safe Side

The complexity of fatigue phenomenon results in the difficulty of fatigue life prediction. The fatigue phenomenon is treated as being in a grey system. By using of grey system theory, a new method for fatigue life prediction based on grey model GM(1,1) is proposed. Results of the example show that the prediction error can be reduced from 61.55% to 24.32%, and the prediction is on the safe side. Therefore, it is proved that the method is practical and useful for fatigue life prediction in engineering.

Application of Grey Model Theory to Forecast Flight Training Time

2014 ◽  
Vol 635-637 ◽  
pp. 1696-1699
Author(s):  
Jun Wen ◽  
Hai Feng Duan ◽  
Shu Xia Sun ◽  
Ming Xing Li ◽  
Jian Fei Lv
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Flight Training ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Training Time ◽  
Forecast Result ◽  
High Prediction

Grey model GM(1,1) is applied to forecast flight training time. The discreteness of originality data is overcome and the high-precise predicted result is received under the condition of a small amount of data. This paper takes a short-term forecast flight training time of Civil Aviation Flight University of China (CAFUC) by using grey system theory. With a comparison of the actual data to the forecast result, it is proved that using grey system theory to forecast the flight training time of Civil Aviation Flight University of China is feasible with relatively high prediction accuracy.

scholarly journals Utilizing an Adaptive Grey Model for Short-Term Time Series Forecasting: A Case Study of Wafer-Level Packaging

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Che-Jung Chang ◽  
Der-Chiang Li ◽  
Wen-Li Dai ◽  
Chien-Chih Chen
Keyword(s):  
Semiconductor Manufacturing ◽  
Manufacturing System ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Wafer Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Packaging Process ◽  
Wafer Level Packaging

The wafer-level packaging process is an important technology used in semiconductor manufacturing, and how to effectively control this manufacturing system is thus an important issue for packaging firms. One way to aid in this process is to use a forecasting tool. However, the number of observations collected in the early stages of this process is usually too few to use with traditional forecasting techniques, and thus inaccurate results are obtained. One potential solution to this problem is the use of grey system theory, with its feature of small dataset modeling. This study thus uses the AGM(1,1) grey model to solve the problem of forecasting in the pilot run stage of the packaging process. The experimental results show that the grey approach is an appropriate and effective forecasting tool for use with small datasets and that it can be applied to improve the wafer-level packaging process.

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