A robust stochastic stability analysis approach for power system considering wind speed prediction error based on Markov model

2021 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 103503
Author(s):  
Zigang Lu ◽  
Shufeng Lu ◽  
Minrui Xu ◽  
Bowen Cui
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Power System ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Stochastic Stability ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Analysis Approach ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
Stochastic Stability Analysis

THE INFLUENCE OF THE WIND SPEED PREDICTION ERROR ON THE SIZE OF THE STORAGE CONTROLLED OPERATION ZONE IN THE SYSTEM WITH THE WIND GENERATOR

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (57) ◽  
pp. 35-41
Author(s):  
K.S. Klen ◽  
◽  
M.K. Yaremenko ◽  
V.Ya. Zhuykov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Average Energy ◽  
Interpolation Formula ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Wind Generator ◽  
Prediction Horizon ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Predictor Corrector

The article analyzes the influence of wind speed prediction error on the size of the controlled operation zone of the storage. The equation for calculating the power at the output of the wind generator according to the known values of wind speed is given. It is shown that when the wind speed prediction error reaches a value of 20%, the controlled operation zone of the storage disappears. The necessity of comparing prediction methods with different data discreteness to ensure the minimum possible prediction error and determining the influence of data discreteness on the error is substantiated. The equations of the "predictor-corrector" scheme for the Adams, Heming, and Milne methods are given. Newton's second interpolation formula for interpolation/extrapolation is given at the end of the data table. The average relative error of MARE was used to assess the accuracy of the prediction. It is shown that the prediction error is smaller when using data with less discreteness. It is shown that when using the Adams method with a prediction horizon of up to 30 min, within ± 34% of the average energy value, the drive can be controlled or discharged in a controlled manner. References 13, figures 2, tables 3.

scholarly journals An Optimized Method of Wind Speed Prediction with Support Vector Machine and Genetic Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 212-217
Author(s):  
Guan-fa Li ◽  
Wen-sheng Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Power System ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

Due to the randomness of wind speed and direction, the output power of wind turbine also has randomness. After large-scale wind power integration, it will bring a lot of adverse effects on the power quality of the power system, and also bring difficulties to the formulation of power system dispatching plan. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, an optimized method of wind speed prediction with support vector machine and genetic algorithm is put forward. Compared with other optimization methods, the simulation results show that the optimized genetic algorithm not only has good convergence speed, but also can find more suitable parameters for data samples. When the data is updated according to time series, the optimization range of vaccine and parameters is adaptively adjusted and updated. Therefore, as a new optimization method, the optimization method has certain theoretical significance and practical application value, and can be applied to other time series prediction models.

Stochastic Stability Analysis of New Energy Power System Based on Entropy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Jiao ◽  
Xiaoyan Qi ◽  
Qiming Wang ◽  
Xijun Feng ◽  
Kang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Power System ◽  
Stochastic Stability ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Stochastic Stability Analysis

A Markov model for short term wind speed prediction by integrating the wind acceleration information

2021 ◽  
Vol 164 ◽  
pp. 242-253
Author(s):  
Wenzhe Li ◽  
Xiaodong Jia ◽  
Xiang Li ◽  
Yinglu Wang ◽  
Jay Lee
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

A Study of Effects of Stochastic Wind Power and Load to Power System Stability Using Stochastic Stability Analysis Method

2014 ◽  
Vol 931-932 ◽  
pp. 878-882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panom Parinya ◽  
Anawach Sangswang ◽  
Krissanapong Kirtikara ◽  
Dhirayut Chenvidhya ◽  
Sumate Naetiladdanon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Power System ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Stochastic Stability ◽  
First Integral ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Small Signal Stability ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Stochastic Stability Analysis ◽  
Single Machine Infinite Bus

The stochastic stability analysis method is proposed in this paper to investigate the small signal stability (SSS) of the single machine infinite bus power system. An induction generator wind turbine model is examined including frequency dependent load. The first integral energy function method is applied based on Lyapunovs stability and the theory of stochastic stability. This proposed method can investigate effects of stochastic wind power and load quantitatively while the general deterministic methods cannot.

scholarly journals Stochastic Stability Analysis of the Power System with Losses

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongyu Li ◽  
Ping Ju ◽  
Chun Gan ◽  
Feng Wu ◽  
Yichen Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Power System ◽  
Stochastic Stability ◽  
Stochastic Stability Analysis
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