Abstract
BackgroundHydrologic systems have been changing due to the impact of climate change and climate variability. The impacts of climate change are set to increase in the future due to the rise of global warming. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal hydrological processes is important for integrated water resource management. The Lake Tana basin, which is the source of the Upper Blue Nile, is vulnerable to climate change and variability. This study was carried out in the four major tributary watersheds of the Lake Tana basin: Gilgel Abay, Gumara, Ribb, and Megech. The climate model and hydrological model was used to (i) to evaluate the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for study watershed, (ii) to assess the future rainfall and temperature variability and change in the study watershed, and (iii) to examine the impact of climate change on future watershed hydrology. The study used dynamically downscaled climate data for the baseline (2010–2015) and future period (2046–2051) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The climate scenarios were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a 4-km horizontal resolution. A linear scaling method was applied to minimize model biases. The SWAT model was used to estimate the baseline and future hydrology using the bias-corrected climate data. ResultsThe performance of the SWAT model was ‘good’ to ‘very good’ for both the calibration and validation periods, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values between 0.71 to 0.92. The projected changes in rainfall vary with seasons and watershed under both scenarios. On average, annual rainfall may increase by 9.8% and 21.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Minimum temperature may rise by 1.68 °C and 2.26 °C while maximum temperature may increase by 1.65 °C and 2.75 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The changes in climate may cause an increase in surface runoff by 20.9% and 46.5% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the evapotranspiration increase by 4.7% and 12.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. ConclusionThe findings provide valuable insights to implement appropriate water management strategies to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change and variability on the Lake Tana basin, and other regions which have similar agro-ecology.
Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Responses in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia
