Perception of Climate Variability and Its Impact by Smallholders in Pastoral Systems of Abudwak District, Galmudug State, Somalia

it is true in all the regions of the country; there is no stable and reliable documented meteorological data for reasonable tracking of the climate change and variability. Thus, this study explores the perception of significant variability in climate and related impact on local livestock holders among smallholders in pastoral systems of Abudwak district, Somalia. We drew on empirical data obtained from pastoral communities surveys conducted in 4 villages, 169 pastoral associations. Using this data, this study analyses smallholders' perception of climate variability and its associated impact on local livelihood, and the effect of several household on perception. Respondents interviewed during the study period, however, believed that there has been significant variability in the rainfall and temperature patterns for the last twenty years and considered climate variability as a salient risk to their future livelihoods and economic development. Likewise, the general perception of the people is that both rainfall and temperature have highly been fluctuating for decades now became unpredictable with less rainfall in shorter duration and warmer temperature over year now than usual. Different levels of perception were expressed in terms of climate variability and the impact on traditional rain-fed. Age, education level, livestock holding, access to climate information and extension services significantly affected perception levels.

The Relationship between Climate Change, Variability, and Food Security: Understanding the Impacts and Building Resilient Food Systems in West Pokot County, Kenya

This study integrated local and scientific knowledge to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on food security in West Pokot County, Kenya from 1980–2012. It characterized rainfall and temperature from 1980–2011 and the phenology of agricultural vegetation, assessed land use and land cover (LULC) changes, and surveyed local knowledge and perceptions of the relationships between climate change and variability, land use decisions, and food (in)security. The 124 respondents were aware of long-term changes in their environment, with 68% strongly believing that climate has become more variable. The majority of the respondents (88%) reported declining rainfall and rising temperatures, with respondents in the lowland areas reporting shortened growing seasons that affected food production. Meteorological data for 1980–2011 confirmed high inter-annual rainfall variability around the mean value of 973.4 mm/yr but with no notable trend. Temperature data showed an increasing trend between 1980 and 2012 with lowlands and highlands showing changes of +1.25 °C and +1.29 °C, respectively. Land use and land cover changes between 1984 and 2010 showed cropland area increased by +4176% (+33,138 ha), while grassland and forest areas declined by –49% (–96,988 ha) and –38% (–65,010 ha), respectively. These area changes illustrate human-mediated responses to the rainfall variability, such as increased stocking after good rainfall years and crop area expansion. The mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values ranged from 0.36–0.54 within a year, peaking in May and September. For weather-related planning, respondents relied on radio (64%) and traditional forecasters (26%) as predominant information sources. Supporting continuous climate change monitoring, intensified early warning systems, and disseminating relevant information to farmers could help farmers adopt appropriate adaptation strategies.

Livestock Farmer Demography and Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change and Variability in Limpopo and Mpumalanga Province of South Africa

The study investigated the demographic characteristics of smallholder livestock farmers in Limpopo and Mpumalanga Province of South Africa and their effect on the capacity of the farmers to adapt to climate change and variability. Respondents were mainly heads (58.7%) and parents (25.7%) to heads of households and were mostly male (63.4%) with good health (97.8%) associated with high adaptive capacity to climate change and variability. Regarding socio-economic status, four in five (81.5%) of the livestock farmers had only secondary education at most, and incomes were generally low, probably associated with low capacity to adapt to climate change and variability. On the contrary, the quality of housing for the livestock farmers was either top (48.5% of farmers) or medium (47.4%). Some 45.9% of farmers owned 4 to 5 rooms, 44.5% owned six or more rooms, with 88.5% of them having financed their houses. Almost all the respondents (97.3%) had access to electricity, and these suggest the high capacity to adapt to climate change and variability. With regards to aspects of livestock farming, one male (40.1% of households) and female (39.3%) member was fit to work in farming, livestock was owned by heads (52.9% of the households) and by children (29.0%), affirming the high capacity to adapt to climate change and variability. Almost all respondents (99.2%) used communal land, had fewer livestock, lacked training (99.5%), never belonged to a farmers’ union (99.7%) or a producer organization (100.0%), and had no access to financial support from the government (99.2%) associated with low adaptive capacity. The findings of the study revealed that demographic factors had different influences on the capacity of smallholder livestock farmers to adapt to adverse effects of climate change and variability on the farming enterprises. This was true for all the three types of demographic factors studied, namely: personal characteristics, economic status, and aspects of livestock farming.

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Precipitation and Maximum Flows in Devil’s Creek, Tacna, Peru

Global projections of climate change indicate negative impacts on hydrological systems, with significant changes in precipitation and temperature in many parts of the world. As a result, floods and droughts are expected. This article discusses the potential effects of climate change and variability on the maximum precipitation, temperature, and hydrological regime in Devil’s Creek, Tacna, Peru. The outputs of precipitation and daily temperature of fifteen regional climate models were used for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The methodology used includes the bias correction and downscaling of meteorological variables using the quintiles mapping technique, hydrological modeling, the evaluation of two emission scenarios, and its effect on the maximum flows of the stream. The results of the multi-model ensemble show that the maximum annual precipitation will probably increase by more than 30% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 period relative to the 1981–2005 period. Likewise, as expected, the maximum flows could increase by 220% and 154% for the RCP4.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 terms, respectively, and 234% and 484% for the RCP8.5 scenarios and for the 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 terms, respectively, concerning the recorded historical value, increasing the probability of flood events and damage in populations located downstream.

Influences of Climate Change and Variability on Estuarine Ecosystems: An Impact Study in Selected European, South American and Asian Countries

It is well-known that climate change significantly impacts ecosystems (at the macro-level) and individual species (at the micro-level). Among the former, estuaries are the most vulnerable and affected ecosystems. However, despite the strong relations between climate change and estuaries, there is a gap in the literature regarding international studies across different regions investigating the impacts of climate change and variability on estuaries in different geographical zones. This paper addresses this need and reviews the impacts of climate change, variability and extreme weather on estuaries. It emphasises the following: (i) a set of climate parameters governing estuarine hydrology and processes; and (ii) a sample of countries in Asia (Bangladesh), Europe (Portugal) and South America (Uruguay). We reviewed the influences of the climatic drivers of the estuarine hydrology, ecological processes and specific species in estuarine communities across the selected geographical regions, along with an analysis of their long-term implications. The key results from the three estuaries are as following: (i) Hilsa fish, of which the catches contribute to 10% of the total earnings of the fishery sector (1% of GDP), are affected by climate-forced hydrological and productivity changes in the Meghna; (ii) extreme droughts and short-term severe precipitation have driven the long-term abundance and spatial distribution of both fish larvae and juveniles/adults in the Mondego; and (iii) the river inflow and fluctuations increases since the early 1970s have contributed to variations in the salinity, the stratification, the oxygen, nutrient and trophic levels and the spatial pattern for the life stages of planktonic species, fish biomass and captures in the Rio de la Plata. The results suggested that immediate action is needed to reduce the vulnerability of estuaries to climate stressors, mainly the changing river flows, storms and sea-level rise. As a contribution to addressing current problems, we described a set of adaptation strategies to foster climate resilience and adaptive capacity (e.g., early-warning systems, dam management to prevent overflows and adaptive fisheries management). The implications of this paper are two-fold. Firstly, it showcases a variety of problems that estuaries face from changing climate conditions. Secondly, the paper outlines the need for suitable adaptive management strategies to safeguard the integrity of such vital ecosystems.

Reducing Climate Risks by Improving Food Production and Value Chains: A Case of Sandy Soils in Semi-arid Kenya

Due to climate change and variability, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent worldwide, causing significant reductions in agricultural production and food security. The livelihoods of smallholder farmers, especially those eking out a living by farming on sandy soils, are particularly affected. We examined this issue using the case of Makueni County, a semi-arid area with sandy soils in south-eastern Kenya. Using survey data from 202 households, we examined extreme weather events affecting smallholder farmers and current management strategies used to mitigate the consequences. We then performed field experiments to assess potential gains of implementing sub-surface water retention technology (SWRT) in the region. Finally, we held group discussions with stakeholders in food value chains (FVC) to identify ways of managing climate risks to smallholder farmers. Analysis of the survey data showed that 199 of 202 farmers surveyed had experienced an extreme event associated with climate change and variability during the previous five years. Of these 199 farmers, 161 reported having changed their farming practices to adapt, especially to drought (70%) and increased temperature (22%). Common adaptation practices included early planting, reducing the area under cultivation, and water harvesting. In the field experiments, using SWRT resulted in a 50, 100, 150, and 170% increase in maize grain yield, cob numbers, cob weight, and maize stover biomass, respectively, compared with the control (without SWRT). Stakeholder group discussions along the FVC demonstrated a need for synergy among actors to mitigate climate risks caused by extreme weather events. These findings suggest that diversification of management strategies at farm level, combined with external inputs (new technologies, improved seeds, etc.) and services (credit access, learning from peers and professionals), will be instrumental in reducing future climate risks to smallholder farmers. Improving access to viable markets and fostering mutually beneficial linkages with post-harvest processors would add value to farm produce, thus further increasing income and the capacity of smallholder farmers to manage climate risks.

The Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Small-Scale Peri-Urban Horticultural Farmers in Domboshawa, Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is a semi-arid country reliant on regular rains (November-April). Mean annual rainfall is low, and many rivers in the drier parts of the country are not perennial. In the small-scale horticultural sector, irrigation becomes handy. Rainfall exhibits spatial and temporal variability. This scenario is characterized by shifts in the onset of rains, increases in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, increases in the proportion of low rainfall years, decreases in low-intensity rainfall events, and increases in the frequency and intensity of mid-season dry spells. Drought have increased in frequency and intensity. Agriculture is the main source of income for most smallholder farmers who depend on rain-fed cropping and livestock rearing. Adaptation of agriculture to climate variability and change impacts is vital for livelihood. To develop appropriate strategies and institutional responses to climate change adaptation, a clear understanding of climate change impacts on smallholder farmers at farm-level is vital.

Climate Variability and Urban Agricultural Activities in Ibadan, Nigeria

Two terms that are enjoying increasing overwhelming global literature advocacy and discussion are urban farming and climate change. While there is increasing advocacy towards the relevance of urban agriculture for urban dwellers and how it translates into a mitigation strategy against climate change variability and adaptation to urban poverty, the effect of some urban farming activities and how it serves as a driver to climate change needs to be investigated. In most of the urban periphery where there is availability of a large expanse of land areas, farming activities are usually practised in form of settlement farm, livestock rearing, or plantation agriculture. The study based on quantitative and qualitative data from urban farmers in Ibadan argues that the location of urban farmlands is dependent on climatic factor such as access to land. The study identified that climate variability as reported by the urban farmers has resulted in the increased use of fertilizer for farming by urban farmers, and the main activity that is pro-climate change and variability is bush burning.

Analysis of Past and Projected Trends of Rainfall and Temperature Parameters in Eastern and Western Hararghe Zones, Ethiopia

Smallholder farmers in East and West Hararghe zones, Ethiopia frequently face problems of climate extremes. Knowledge of past and projected climate change and variability at local and regional scales can help develop adaptation measures. A study was therefore conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of rainfall and temperature in the past (1988–2017) and projected periods of 2030 and 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) at selected stations in East and West Hararghe zones, Ethiopia. To detect the trends and magnitude of change Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed, respectively. The result of the study indicated that for the last three decades annual and seasonal and monthly rainfall showed high variability but the changes are not statistically significant. On the other hand, the minimum temperature of the ‘Belg’ season showed a significant (p < 0.05) increment. The mean annual minimum temperature is projected to increase by 0.34 °C and 2.52 °C for 2030, and 0.41 °C and 4.15 °C for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Additionally, the mean maximum temperature is projected to change by −0.02 °C and 1.14 °C for 2030, and 0.54 °C and 1.87 °C for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Annual rainfall amount is also projected to increase by 2.5% and 29% for 2030, and 12% and 32% for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Hence, it is concluded that there was an increasing trend in the Belg season minimum temperature. A significant increasing trend in rainfall and temperature are projected compared to the baseline period for most of the districts studied. This implies a need to design climate-smart crop and livestock production strategies, as well as an early warning system to counter the drastic effects of climate change and variability on agricultural production and farmers’ livelihood in the region.

Adaptive Garlic Farming on Climate Change and Variability in Lombok

Climate change impact in Indonesia is generally characterized by changes in daily temperature, rainfall patterns, and sea level rise. These changes mainly influence agricultural practices for various crops, including garlic (Alium sativum L.). Current knowledge on climate vulnerability related to agricultural impact in Indonesia is limited. This study aims to identify the level of vulnerability of garlic farmer households to climate change and provide recommendations for adaptation activities for garlic farmers. The household vulnerability profile was assessed using Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and LVI-IPCC approaches. We carried out interviews for 100 respondents in four villages in Lombok to obtain primary data related to agricultural practices. Relation between climate variables and garlic productivity was determined using linear regression approach. The results showed that rainfall and temperature had a negative correlation with garlic productivity as indicated statistical indicators used, namely R2. According to LVI and LVI-IPCC approach, Sembalun Timba Gading and Sajang have the highest level of vulnerability (0.60) and Sajang Village has the lowest level of vulnerability (0.55) among all villages. The findings suggested that climate information should be considered in agricultural sector for climate change mitigation and adaptation.