Abstract. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a potentially important
technology for the mitigation of industrial CO2 emissions. However, the
majority of the subsurface storage capacity is in saline aquifers, for which
there is relatively little information. Published estimates of the potential
storage capacity of such formations, based on limited data, often give no
indication of the uncertainty, despite there being substantial uncertainty
associated with the data used to calculate such estimates. Here, we test the
hypothesis that the uncertainty in such estimates is a significant
proportion of the estimated storage capacity, and should hence be evaluated
as a part of any assessment. Using only publicly available data, a group of
13 experts independently estimated the storage capacity of seven regional saline
aquifers. The experts produced a wide range of estimates for each aquifer
due to a combination of using different published values for some variables
and differences in their judgements of the aquifer properties such as area
and thickness. The range of storage estimates produced by the experts shows
that there is significant uncertainty in such estimates; in particular, the
experts' range does not capture the highest possible capacity estimates.
This means that by not accounting for uncertainty, such regional estimates
may underestimate the true storage capacity. The result is applicable to
single values of storage capacity of regional potential but not to detailed
studies of a single storage site.
Integrating Carbon Capture and Storage with Energy Production from Saline Aquifers: A Strategy to Offset the Energy Cost of CCS
