Uncertainty in regional estimates of capacity for carbon capture and storage
Abstract. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a potentially important technology for the mitigation of industrial CO2 emissions, however the majority of the subsurface storage capacity is in geological strata for which there is relatively little information, the so-called saline aquifers. Published estimates of the potential storage capacity of such formations, based on limited data, often give no indication of the uncertainty, despite there being substantial uncertainty associated with the data used to calculate such estimates. Using only publicly available data, a group of experts independently estimated the storage capacity of 7 regional saline aquifers. The experts produced a wide range of estimates for each aquifer due a combination of using different published values for some variables and differences in their judgements of the aquifer properties such as area and thickness. The range of storage estimates produced by the experts shows that there is significant uncertainty in such estimates, in particular the experts' range does not capture the highest possible capacity estimates, meaning that by not accounting for uncertainty, such regional estimates may underestimate the true storage capacity. The result is applicable to single values of storage capacity of regional potential, but not to detailed studies of a single storage site.