SAPI: Statistical Analysis of Propagation of Incidents. A new approach for rescheduling trains after disruptions

2011 ◽  
Vol 215 (1) ◽  
pp. 227-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Acuna-Agost ◽  
Philippe Michelon ◽  
Dominique Feillet ◽  
Serigne Gueye
Radiocarbon ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 720-730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Bronk Ramsey ◽  
Sharen Lee

OxCal is a widely used software package for the calibration of radiocarbon dates and the statistical analysis of 14C and other chronological information. The program aims to make statistical methods easily available to researchers and students working in a range of different disciplines. This paper will look at the recent and planned developments of the package. The recent additions to the statistical methods are primarily aimed at providing more robust models, in particular through model averaging for deposition models and through different multiphase models. The paper will look at how these new models have been implemented and explore the implications for researchers who might benefit from their use. In addition, a new approach to the evaluation of marine reservoir offsets will be presented. As the quantity and complexity of chronological data increase, it is also important to have efficient methods for the visualization of such extensive data sets and methods for the presentation of spatial and geographical data embedded within planned future versions of OxCal will also be discussed.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (01) ◽  
pp. 283-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Morales ◽  
José Aguilar ◽  
Danilo Chávez ◽  
Claudia Isaza

This paper proposes a new approach to improve the performance of Learning Algorithm for Multivariable Data Analysis (LAMDA). This algorithm can be used for supervised and unsupervised learning, based on the calculation of the Global Adequacy Degree (GAD) of one individual to a class, through the contributions of all its descriptors. LAMDA has the capability of creating new classes after the training stage. If an individual does not have enough similarity to the preexisting classes, it is evaluated with respect to a threshold called the Non-Informative Class (NIC), this being the novelty of the algorithm. However, LAMDA has problems making good classifications, either because the NIC is constant for all classes, or because the GAD calculation is unreliable. In this work, its efficiency is improved by two strategies, the first one, by the calculation of adaptable NICs for each class, which prevents that correctly classified individuals create new classes; and the second one, by computing the Higher Adequacy Degree (HAD), which grants more robustness to the algorithm. LAMDA-HAD is validated by applying it in different benchmarks and comparing it with LAMDA and other classifiers, through a statistical analysis to determinate the cases in which our algorithm presents a better performance.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 429-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin L. Witek ◽  
Michael J. Garay ◽  
David J. Diner ◽  
Michael A. Bull ◽  
Felix C. Seidel

Abstract. A new method for retrieving aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its uncertainty from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) observations over dark water is outlined. MISR's aerosol retrieval algorithm calculates cost functions between observed and pre-simulated radiances for a range of AODs (from 0.0 to 3.0) and a prescribed set of aerosol mixtures. The previous version 22 (V22) operational algorithm considered only the AOD that minimized the cost function for each aerosol mixture and then used a combination of these values to compute the final, “best estimate” AOD and associated uncertainty. The new approach considers the entire range of cost functions associated with each aerosol mixture. The uncertainty of the reported AOD depends on a combination of (a) the absolute values of the cost functions for each aerosol mixture, (b) the widths of the cost function distributions as a function of AOD, and (c) the spread of the cost function distributions among the ensemble of mixtures. A key benefit of the new approach is that, unlike the V22 algorithm, it does not rely on empirical thresholds imposed on the cost function to determine the success or failure of a particular mixture. Furthermore, a new aerosol retrieval confidence index (ARCI) is established that can be used to screen high-AOD retrieval blunders caused by cloud contamination or other factors. Requiring ARCI ≥0.15 as a condition for retrieval success is supported through statistical analysis and outperforms the thresholds used in the V22 algorithm. The described changes to the MISR dark water algorithm will become operational in the new MISR aerosol product (V23), planned for release in 2017.


2002 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. M. Batanov ◽  
V. E. Bening ◽  
V. Yu. Korolev ◽  
A. E. Petrov ◽  
K. A. Sarksyan ◽  
...  

2012 ◽  
Vol 504-506 ◽  
pp. 631-636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Steffes-Lai ◽  
Tanja Clees

This paper presents a new approach for statistical analysis of process chains, including a parameter sensitivity analysis of each process step as a basis for dimension reduction, and an efficient interpolatory metamodel in order to predict new designs. A Monte Carlo alike evaluation of this metamodel results in the requested statistical information, e.g. quantiles of the output functionals. Numerical results are presented for the forming process of a ZStE340 metal blank of a B-pillar. Additionally, a brief overview of results of the process chain forming to crash is given.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong-Kong T. Nguyen

This essay reviews the research on suicide from the pre-Durkheim period in the 18th century to modern day. It highlights major developments in suicidology--the study of suicide--and suggests a new proposal. The new approach, built on the mindsponge model, integrates existing theories as well as Bayesian statistical analysis to facilitate our understanding of suicide through the lens of information processing and updating.


2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (7) ◽  
pp. 6734-6746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Ramirez-Espinosa ◽  
Laureano Moreno-Pozas ◽  
Jose F. Paris ◽  
Jose A. Cortes ◽  
Eduardo Martos-Naya

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