Portfolio optimization with irreversible long-term investments in renewable energy under policy risk: A mixed-integer multistage stochastic model and a moving-horizon approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 290 (2) ◽  
pp. 734-748
Author(s):  
Nadine Gatzert ◽  
Alexander Martin ◽  
Martin Schmidt ◽  
Benjamin Seith ◽  
Nikolai Vogl
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Portfolio Optimization ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Policy Risk

Energy Mix Forecasting in Abu Dhabi Using Mixed Integer Linear Program

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moza Salim Al Naimi ◽  
Mohamed I. Hassan Ali ◽  
Gento Mogi
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Systems ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Linear Program ◽  
Integer Linear Program ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Mixed Integer Linear Program ◽  
Further Development

Sustainable energy transition requires a critical prediction for the long-term evolvement of energy systems around the world. It is affected by several factors: the changes in the oil economy, the climate change, and the development of renewable energy supply technologies. The aim of this research is to compare and analyze Abu Dhabi’s generation sector in its transition from complete conventional gas to a mix of conventional and Photovoltaic (PV) energy systems. Employing a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP) and PLEXOS software, two capacity expansion scenarios of Abu Dhabi’s generation sector for five years are optimized, analyzed, and compared using a real data from the generation and demand sides. This research means to highlight, to the UAE government, the effect of introducing more renewable energy and to evaluate the performance of the generation side in meeting the forecasted demand. Furthermore, this work opens the doors wide for further development and optimization in the GCC area.

scholarly journals Investment Planning Methodology for Complex Urban Energy Systems Applied to a Hospital Site

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bastien Bornand ◽  
Luc Girardin ◽  
Francesca Belfiore ◽  
Jean-Loup Robineau ◽  
Stéphane Bottallo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Integer Linear Programming ◽  
Mixed Integer Linear Programming ◽  
Energy Systems ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Energy Integration ◽  
Investment Planning ◽  
Urban Energy

Industrial process integration based on mixed integer linear programming has been used for decades to design and improve industrial processes. The technique has later been extended to solve multi-period and multi-scale problems for the design of urban energy systems. Assistance is indeed required for the elaboration of coordinated investment scheduling strategies to promote renewable and efficient urban energy infrastructure shaping the future energy context for the next decades. Major energy consumers, such as hospital complexes, airports, or educational campuses can act as a driving force for the development of renewable energy cities by attracting profitable large-scale energy networks and infrastructure. The proposed methodology generates optimal alternatives for the replacement, in a long-term perspective, of the various energy supply units and systems considering the evolution of the energy demand and the availability of the energy resources. Energy integration techniques are coupled to a parametric multi-objective optimization routine to select and size the energy equipment with both financial profitability and CO2 emission reduction as objectives. The originality of the developed method lies in the integration of a multi-period mixed integer linear programming formulation to generate long-term investment planning scenarios. The method has been demonstrated on a complex of eight hospitals totaling 466,000 m2 and an operating budget of 1.85 billion USD per year. The energy integration of new centralized and decentralized equipment has been evaluated on a monthly basis over four periods until the year 2035. The results show that among the four scenarios identified, the most optimistic alternative allows to decrease the final energy consumption of about 36%, cut the CO2 emissions by a half, multiply the renewable energy share by a factor 3.5 while reducing the annual total cost by 24%. This scenario considers mainly the integration of a very low temperature district heating with decentralized heat pumps to satisfy the heat requirements below 75°C, as well as heat recovery systems and the refurbishment of about 33% of the building stock.

Power Projects and Covid-19: A Practical Analysis of the Relevance of Force Majeure Clauses under the Standardised Power Purchase and Implementation Agreements of Uganda

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-193
Author(s):  
Aisha Naiga ◽  
Loyola Rwabose Karobwa
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
The State ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Force Majeure ◽  
Practical Analysis ◽  
Energy Justice

Over 90% of Uganda's power is generated from renewable sources. Standardised Implementation Agreements and Power Purchase Agreements create a long-term relationship between Generating Companies and the state-owned off-taker guaranteed by Government. The COVID-19 pandemic and measures to curb the spread of the virus have triggered the scrutiny and application of force majeure (FM) clauses in these agreements. This article reviews the FM clauses and considers their relevance. The authors submit that FM clauses are a useful commercial tool for achieving energy justice by ensuring the continuity of the project, despite the dire effects of the pandemic. Proposals are made for practical considerations for a post-COVID-19 future which provides the continued pursuit of policy goals of promoting renewable energy sources and increasing access to clean energy, thus accelerating just energy transitions.

scholarly journals Influence of the Share of Renewable Energy Sources on the Level of Energy Security in EECCA Countries

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Trifonov ◽  
Dmitry Trukhan ◽  
Yury Koshlich ◽  
Valeriy Prasolov ◽  
Beata Ślusarczyk
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Resource ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Structural Content ◽  
High Degree

In this study we aimed to determine the extent to which changes in the share of renewable energy sources, their structural complex, and the level of energy security in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA) countries in the medium- and long-term are interconnected. The study was performed through modeling and determination of the structural characteristics of energy security in the countries. The methodology of the approach to modeling was based on solving the problem of nonlinear optimization by selecting a certain scenario. For the study, the data of EECCA countries were used. The ability of EECCA countries to benefit from long-term indirect and induced advantages of the transformation period depends on the extent to which their domestic supply chains facilitate the deployment of energy transformation and induced economic activity. This study provides an opportunity to assess the degree of influence of renewable energy sources on the level of energy security of countries in the context of energy resource diversification. The high degree of influence of renewable energy sources on energy security in the EECCA countries has been proven in the implementation of the developed scenarios for its increase. Energy security is growing. At the same time, its level depends not only on an increase in the share of renewable sources but also on the structure of energy resources complex of countries, and the development of various renewable energy sources. Therefore, today the EECCA countries are forced not only to increase the share of renewable energy sources but also to attach strategic importance to the structural content of their energy complex.

scholarly journals Portfolio optimization of power plants by using renewable energy in Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyedeh Asra Ahmadi ◽  
Seyed Mojtaba Mirlohi ◽  
Mohammad Hossein Ahmadi ◽  
Majid Ameri
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Portfolio Optimization ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Capital Costs

Abstract Lack of investment in the electricity sector has created a huge bottleneck in the continuous flow of energy in the market, and this will create many problems for the sustainable growth and development of modern society. The main reason for this lack of investment is the investment risk in the electricity sector. One way to reduce portfolio risk is to diversify it. This study applies the concept of portfolio optimization to demonstrate the potential for greater use of renewable energy, which reduces the risk of investing in the electricity sector. Besides, it shows that investing in renewable energies can offset the risk associated with the total input costs. These costs stem from the volatility of associated prices, including fossil fuel, capital costs, maintenance, operation and environmental costs. This case study shows that Iran can theoretically supply ~33% of its electricity demand from renewable energy sources compared to its current 15% share. This case study confirms this finding and predicts that Iran, while reducing the risk of investing in electricity supply, can achieve a renewable energy supply of ~9% with an average increase in supply costs. Sensitivity analysis further shows that with a 10% change in input cost factors, the percentage of renewable energy supply is only partially affected, but basket costs change according to the scenario of 5–32%. Finally, suggestions are made that minimize risk rather than cost, which will bring about an increase in renewable energy supply.

scholarly journals Optimal Design on Fossil-to-Renewable Energy Transition of Regional Integrated Energy Systems under CO2 Emission Abatement Control: A Case Study in Dalian, China

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 2879
Author(s):  
Xinxin Liu ◽  
Nan Li ◽  
Feng Liu ◽  
Hailin Mu ◽  
Longxi Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Optimal Design ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Systems ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Total Annual Cost ◽  
Emission Abatement ◽  
Integrated Energy Systems

Optimal design of regional integrated energy systems (RIES) offers great potential for better managing energy sources, lower costs and reducing environmental impact. To capture the transition process from fossil fuel to renewable energy, a flexible RIES, including the traditional energy system (TES) based on the coal and biomass based distributed energy system (BDES), was designed to meet a regional multiple energy demand. In this paper, we analyze multiple scenarios based on a new rural community in Dalian (China) to capture the relationship among the energy supply cost, increased share of biomass, system configuration transformation, and renewable subsidy according to regional CO2 emission abatement control targets. A mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model was developed to find the optimal solutions. The results indicated that a 40.58% increase in the share of biomass in the RIES was the most cost-effective way as compared to the separate TES and BDES. Based on the RIES with minimal cost, by setting a CO2 emission reduction control within 40%, the RIES could ensure a competitive total annual cost as compared to the TES. In addition, when the reduction control exceeds 40%, a subsidy of 53.83 to 261.26 RMB/t of biomass would be needed to cover the extra cost to further increase the share of biomass resource and decrease the CO2 emission.

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