Measuring China's monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the real economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 100714 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Li ◽  
Yao Tang ◽  
Jingjie Xiang
2009 ◽  
pp. 9-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kudrin

The article examines the causes of origin and manifestation of the current global financial crisis and the policies adopted in developed countries in 2007—2008 to deal with it. It considers the effects of the financial crisis on Russia’s economy and monetary policy of the Central Bank in the current conditions as well as the main guidelines for the fiscal policy under different energy prices. The measures for fighting the crisis that the Russian government and the Central Bank use to support the real economy are described.


Author(s):  
Olumuyiwa Olamade

This study examined the effect of monetary policy on the real sector of the Nigerian economy. A model was specified for each of the manufacturing and services sectors to interrogate the effect of monetary policy on the real sector. Annual data were sourced from the World Development Indicators for 1981 to 2017. Preliminary tests of the time series properties suggested the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) regression as the most appropriate framework for the achievement of our objectives. Diagnostic tests of the distribution of regression errors confirmed the satisfaction of all necessary regression assumptions. The models were also found stable over the study period. Thus, the models adequately represented the problems formulated for investigation and good for valid inference. While all the four channels of monetary transmission considered were found significant for value-added expansion in manufacturing, the exchange rate channel was not a significant factor in value-added change in the services sector. Our findings suggested that domestic credit is the dominant channel for the transmission of monetary impulses to the real sector. The study concluded that monetary policy will benefit the real economy more with export expansion in both the manufacturing and services sectors.


2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (4) ◽  
pp. 124-136
Author(s):  
Ivan Khotulev ◽  

In October 2021, the Bank of Russia and the New Economic School (NES) hosted a joint international online workshop titled ‘Main Challenges in Banking: Risks, Liquidity, Pricing, and Digital Currencies’. Five papers were presented. They addressed various issues in banking which are currently of paramount importance to central bankers, market participants, and academics: the connections between systemic risk and the real economy, the digitalisation of finance and information asymmetries, credit spreads and monetary policy, the improvement of information flows and outcomes in credit markets, the introduction of central bank digital currencies, and bank intermediation.


2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 711
Author(s):  
Shuiwen Gao ◽  
Haifeng Gu ◽  
Habiba Halepoto

Based on the urgent need of the real economy to “get away from fictitious to substantial”, this paper constructs a quasi-natural experiment based on the margin trading program gradually implemented in China in 2010 and studies the influence of the margin trading program on the financialization level of the target company by using the difference-in-difference method. The results show that, because of the dominant role of financing transactions in margin trading programs in China’s capital market, financing transactions drive up the share prices of listed companies, which leads to an excessive easing of the financing constraints of listed companies and short-sighted behavior of executives, which has a significant role in promoting enterprise financialization. Moreover, the driving effect is more significant in state-owned enterprises, enterprises with a high degree of financing constraint, and enterprises with a low degree of marketization. Economic policy uncertainty will restrain the positive effect of margin trading programs on enterprise financialization through information and governance mechanisms. In contrast, the “branding” effect caused by the financial connection of senior executives will intensify the positive relationship between margin trading programs on enterprise financialization levels. When considering the intermediary effect, we find that the margin trading program will result in the optimistic deviation of analysts’ earnings forecasts and cause the external profit pressure of enterprises, thus increasing the financialization trend. This study is of great theoretical significance and practical value for evaluating the policy effect of the margin trading program, improving this policy, investigating the influencing factors of enterprise financialization, and promoting the real economy to move from fictitious to substantial.


2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 2899-2924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olli-Matti Juhani Laine

AbstractThis study applies factor-augmented vector autoregressive models to investigate the effect of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) conventional monetary policy on the real economy. More specifically, the study examines how unanticipated changes in the ECB’s policy rate have affected unemployment rate and industrial production. The effect of monetary policy on unemployment rate and industrial production is estimated to be strong and statistically significant using the data from January 1999 to July 2017 or from the pre-crisis period. However, after the beginning of the crisis the responses weaken drastically and become sometimes statistically insignificant, indicating that the effect of the ECB’s conventional monetary policy became weaker after the financial crisis. This finding is extremely interesting because one could presume either weaker or stronger effect based on economic theory. Additionally, the previous studies that have analysed the possible changes in the monetary policy effectiveness in the euro area have not found any changes (e.g. Bagzibagli in Empir Econ 47(3):781–823, 2014; Von Borstel et al. in Int J Money Finance 68:386–402, 2016).


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1385-1428
Author(s):  
Chiara Perillo ◽  
Stefano Battiston

Abstract Over the last decades, both advanced and emerging economies have experienced the emergence of the phenomenon known as financialization, that, until some time ago, was generally considered beneficial for the economy. The 2007-2008 crisis and the severe post-crisis recession called into question the assumptions underlying the positive perception of the role played by financialization in the economy. In particular, the effects of financialization on financial stability and inequality are now widely recognized. A recent debate focused on the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy tools in transferring their effects on the financial sphere to the economic sphere (e.g., via stimulating the transmission of resources from the banking system to the real economy). Among these unconventional policy measures, Quantitative Easing (QE) has been recently implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB). In this context, two questions deserve more attention in the literature. First, to what extent QE may generate net flows of additional resources to the real economy. Second, to what extent QE may also alter the pattern of intra-financial exposures among financial actors and what are the implications in terms of financialization. Here, we address these two questions by mapping and analyzing the euro area multilayer macro-network of financial exposures among institutional sectors across financial instruments (i.e., loans, bonds, equity, and insurance and pension schemes) and we illustrate our approach on recently available data. We then test the effect of the implementation of ECB’s QE on some novel measures of financialization that we derive from the time evolution of the financial linkages in the multilayer macro-network of the euro area.


2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Hall ◽  
Thomas J. Sargent

The centerpiece of Milton Friedman's (1968) presidential address to the American Economic Association, delivered in Washington, DC, on December 29, 1967, was the striking proposition that monetary policy has no longer-run effects on the real economy. Friedman focused on two real measures, the unemployment rate and the real interest rate, but the message was broader—in the longer run, monetary policy controls only the price level. We call this the monetary-policy invariance hypothesis. By 1968, macroeconomics had adopted the basic Phillips curve as the favored model of correlations between inflation and unemployment, and Friedman used the Phillips curve in the exposition of the invariance hypothesis. Friedman's presidential address was commonly interpreted as a recommendation to add a previously omitted variable, the rate of inflation anticipated by the public, to the right-hand side of what then became an augmented Phillips curve. We believe that Friedman's main message, the invariance hypothesis about long-term outcomes, has prevailed over the last half-century based on the broad sweep of evidence from many economies over many years. Subsequent research has not been kind to the Phillips curve, but we will argue that Friedman's exposition of the invariance hypothesis in terms of a 1960s-style Phillips curve is incidental to his main message.


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