scholarly journals The effect of the ECB’s conventional monetary policy on the real economy: FAVAR-approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 2899-2924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olli-Matti Juhani Laine
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Real ◽  
European Central ◽  
Monetary Policy Effectiveness ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

AbstractThis study applies factor-augmented vector autoregressive models to investigate the effect of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) conventional monetary policy on the real economy. More specifically, the study examines how unanticipated changes in the ECB’s policy rate have affected unemployment rate and industrial production. The effect of monetary policy on unemployment rate and industrial production is estimated to be strong and statistically significant using the data from January 1999 to July 2017 or from the pre-crisis period. However, after the beginning of the crisis the responses weaken drastically and become sometimes statistically insignificant, indicating that the effect of the ECB’s conventional monetary policy became weaker after the financial crisis. This finding is extremely interesting because one could presume either weaker or stronger effect based on economic theory. Additionally, the previous studies that have analysed the possible changes in the monetary policy effectiveness in the euro area have not found any changes (e.g. Bagzibagli in Empir Econ 47(3):781–823, 2014; Von Borstel et al. in Int J Money Finance 68:386–402, 2016).

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and the Real Economy: A Study of the Manufacturing and Services Sectors in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Olumuyiwa Olamade
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

This study examined the effect of monetary policy on the real sector of the Nigerian economy. A model was specified for each of the manufacturing and services sectors to interrogate the effect of monetary policy on the real sector. Annual data were sourced from the World Development Indicators for 1981 to 2017. Preliminary tests of the time series properties suggested the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) regression as the most appropriate framework for the achievement of our objectives. Diagnostic tests of the distribution of regression errors confirmed the satisfaction of all necessary regression assumptions. The models were also found stable over the study period. Thus, the models adequately represented the problems formulated for investigation and good for valid inference. While all the four channels of monetary transmission considered were found significant for value-added expansion in manufacturing, the exchange rate channel was not a significant factor in value-added change in the services sector. Our findings suggested that domestic credit is the dominant channel for the transmission of monetary impulses to the real sector. The study concluded that monetary policy will benefit the real economy more with export expansion in both the manufacturing and services sectors.

Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Russia

2009 ◽  
pp. 9-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kudrin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
The Real

The article examines the causes of origin and manifestation of the current global financial crisis and the policies adopted in developed countries in 2007—2008 to deal with it. It considers the effects of the financial crisis on Russia’s economy and monetary policy of the Central Bank in the current conditions as well as the main guidelines for the fiscal policy under different energy prices. The measures for fighting the crisis that the Russian government and the Central Bank use to support the real economy are described.

scholarly journals The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (4) ◽  
pp. 690-704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Paul
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
House Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Policy Shocks

This paper studies how monetary policy jointly affects asset prices and the real economy in the United States. I develop an estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks. This is achieved by integrating the surprises into a vector autoregressive model as an exogenous variable. I use current short-term rate surprises because these are least affected by an information effect. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, I find that compared to the response of output, the reaction of stock and house prices to monetary policy shocks was particularly low before the 2007–2009 financial crisis.

scholarly journals Mobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Spelta ◽  
Paolo Pagnottoni
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Substitution Effect ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
The Real

AbstractMobility restrictions have been identified as key non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit the spread of the SARS-COV-2 epidemics. However, these interventions present significant drawbacks to the social fabric and negative outcomes for the real economy. In this paper we propose a real-time monitoring framework for tracking the economic consequences of various forms of mobility reductions involving European countries. We adopt a granular representation of mobility patterns during both the first and second waves of SARS-COV-2 in Italy, Germany, France and Spain to provide an analytical characterization of the rate of losses of industrial production by means of a nowcasting methodology. Our approach exploits the information encoded in massive datasets of human mobility provided by Facebook and Google, which are published at higher frequencies than the target economic variables, in order to obtain an early estimate before the official data becomes available. Our results show, in first place, the ability of mobility-related policies to induce a contraction of mobility patterns across jurisdictions. Besides this contraction, we observe a substitution effect which increases mobility within jurisdictions. Secondly, we show how industrial production strictly follows the dynamics of population commuting patterns and of human mobility trends, which thus provide information on the day-by-day variations in countries’ economic activities. Our work, besides shedding light on how policy interventions targeted to induce a mobility contraction impact the real economy, constitutes a practical toolbox for helping governments to design appropriate and balanced policy actions aimed at containing the SARS-COV-2 spread, while mitigating the detrimental effect on the economy. Our study reveals how complex mobility patterns can have unequal consequences to economic losses across countries and call for a more tailored implementation of restrictions to balance the containment of contagion with the need to sustain economic activities.

scholarly journals The Application of Time-Delay-DependentH∞Control in the Transmission Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Estate Market

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Haifeng Guo ◽  
Yu Qian ◽  
Bo Wang ◽  
Yi Qiu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transmission Effect ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy ◽  
Delay Dependent

This paper uses a time-delay-dependentH∞control model to analyze the transmission effect of monetary policy on the real estate market. We establish a theoretical framework between monetary policy and real estate market based on the three channels, that is, interest rate channel, monetary supply channel, and credit channel. Then we construct a basic model usingH∞control method. By analyzing the effect of the time-delay characteristics of monetary policy on the real estate market, we introduce time variables and propose a time-delay-dependentH∞control model. We test the robustness of the model using the Chinese data of the monetary policy and the real estate market and prove that this model can be well employed in the reality.

scholarly journals Review of the Bank of Russia – NES Workshop ‘Main Challenges in Banking: Risks, Liquidity, Pricing, and Digital Currencies’

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (4) ◽  
pp. 124-136
Author(s):  
Ivan Khotulev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Credit Spreads ◽  
Information Flows ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Central Bankers ◽  
Liquidity Pricing

In October 2021, the Bank of Russia and the New Economic School (NES) hosted a joint international online workshop titled ‘Main Challenges in Banking: Risks, Liquidity, Pricing, and Digital Currencies’. Five papers were presented. They addressed various issues in banking which are currently of paramount importance to central bankers, market participants, and academics: the connections between systemic risk and the real economy, the digitalisation of finance and information asymmetries, credit spreads and monetary policy, the improvement of information flows and outcomes in credit markets, the introduction of central bank digital currencies, and bank intermediation.

scholarly journals Financialization and unconventional monetary policy: a financial-network analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1385-1428
Author(s):  
Chiara Perillo ◽  
Stefano Battiston
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Recent Debate ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Net Flows

Abstract Over the last decades, both advanced and emerging economies have experienced the emergence of the phenomenon known as financialization, that, until some time ago, was generally considered beneficial for the economy. The 2007-2008 crisis and the severe post-crisis recession called into question the assumptions underlying the positive perception of the role played by financialization in the economy. In particular, the effects of financialization on financial stability and inequality are now widely recognized. A recent debate focused on the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy tools in transferring their effects on the financial sphere to the economic sphere (e.g., via stimulating the transmission of resources from the banking system to the real economy). Among these unconventional policy measures, Quantitative Easing (QE) has been recently implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB). In this context, two questions deserve more attention in the literature. First, to what extent QE may generate net flows of additional resources to the real economy. Second, to what extent QE may also alter the pattern of intra-financial exposures among financial actors and what are the implications in terms of financialization. Here, we address these two questions by mapping and analyzing the euro area multilayer macro-network of financial exposures among institutional sectors across financial instruments (i.e., loans, bonds, equity, and insurance and pension schemes) and we illustrate our approach on recently available data. We then test the effect of the implementation of ECB’s QE on some novel measures of financialization that we derive from the time evolution of the financial linkages in the multilayer macro-network of the euro area.

scholarly journals Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Hall ◽  
Thomas J. Sargent
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Presidential Address ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Invariance Hypothesis ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Right ◽  
Main Message

The centerpiece of Milton Friedman's (1968) presidential address to the American Economic Association, delivered in Washington, DC, on December 29, 1967, was the striking proposition that monetary policy has no longer-run effects on the real economy. Friedman focused on two real measures, the unemployment rate and the real interest rate, but the message was broader—in the longer run, monetary policy controls only the price level. We call this the monetary-policy invariance hypothesis. By 1968, macroeconomics had adopted the basic Phillips curve as the favored model of correlations between inflation and unemployment, and Friedman used the Phillips curve in the exposition of the invariance hypothesis. Friedman's presidential address was commonly interpreted as a recommendation to add a previously omitted variable, the rate of inflation anticipated by the public, to the right-hand side of what then became an augmented Phillips curve. We believe that Friedman's main message, the invariance hypothesis about long-term outcomes, has prevailed over the last half-century based on the broad sweep of evidence from many economies over many years. Subsequent research has not been kind to the Phillips curve, but we will argue that Friedman's exposition of the invariance hypothesis in terms of a 1960s-style Phillips curve is incidental to his main message.

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