Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 1098-1104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saban Nazlioglu ◽  
Ugur Soytas
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Commodity

The Role of Oil Price in the Forecasts of Agricultural Commodity Prices

2017 ◽  
pp. 422-429
Author(s):  
Rossarin Osathanunkul ◽  
Chatchai Khiewngamdee ◽  
Woraphon Yamaka ◽  
Songsak Sriboonchitta
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity

scholarly journals Does Oil Price Drive World Food Prices? Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Modeling

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mourad Zmami ◽  
Ousama Ben-Salha
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

The macroeconomic outcomes of oil price fluctuations have been at the forefront of the debate among economists, financial analysts and policymakers over the last decades. Among others, the oil price–food price nexus has particularly received a great deal of attention. While an abundant body of literature has focused on the linear relationship between oil price and food price, little is known regarding the nonlinear interactions between them. The aim of this paper is to conduct aggregated and disaggregated analyses of the impact of the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices on international food prices between January 1990 and October 2017. The empirical investigation is based on the estimation of linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The findings confirm the presence of asymmetries since the overall food price is only affected by positive shocks on oil price in the long-run. While the dairy price index reacts to both positive and negative changes of oil price, the impact of oil price increases is found to be greater. Finally, the asymmetry is present for some other agricultural commodity prices in the short-run, since they respond only to oil price decreases. All in all, the study concludes that studies assuming the presence of a symmetric impact of oil price on food price might be flawed. The findings are important for the undertaking of future studies and the design of international and national policies in the fight against food insecurity.

scholarly journals PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS IN DETERMINING RELATIONSHIP OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY AND OIL FUEL PRICE IN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-358
Author(s):  
Marizsa Herlina
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Fuel

This paper contributes to explain the relationship between oil fuel prices, oil price, the exchange rates, and agricultural commodity prices in Indonesia by using panel cointegration. Thus, this paper studied the short- and long-run relationships between oil fuel prices, oil prices, exchange rates, and agricultural commodity prices using the panel cointegration and causality analysis on five main agricultural commodities in Indonesia (i.e. rice, beef, palm oil, red chili, and sugar). The study was conducted using weekly agricultural, oil fuel, oil prices, and exchange rates from October 2014 until May 2016. The results showed that the oil fuel prices and the exchange rate had a long-run impact on agricultural commodity prices. The direction of the causality had also been determined. The oil fuel prices, oil prices, and exchange rate altogether had a unidirectional Granger causality to all of the agricultural commodity prices except beef and palm oil prices in the long-run.

Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 22-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yudong Wang ◽  
Chongfeng Wu ◽  
Li Yang
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Price Shocks

scholarly journals Analysis of the Relationship between World Oil Price and Exchange Rate on Agricultural Commodity Prices in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cut Endang Kurniasih ◽  
Hizir . ◽  
Muhammad Nasir ◽  
Mohd Sadad Mahmud ◽  
Norfadzilah Rashid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
The Relationship

Social and economic aspects of the recent fall in global oil prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 258-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Solaymani
Keyword(s):  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
Entire Economy

Purpose The global energy market has been facing lower prices of crude oil in recent years. Lower fuel price leads to lower transport cost and cheaper agricultural inputs (such as pesticides and chemical fertilizer), resulting in lower prices of agricultural commodities in the international markets. On the other hand, lower global oil price reduces the oil revenues of oil exporting countries, resulting in a decrease in government expenditures. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of lower global oil and agricultural commodity prices and government expenditure on the entire economy and poverty level of Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach This study used a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to investigate four simulation scenarios based on the latest Malaysia’s input-output table belonging to 2010. The first scenario is a 30 per cent fall in the export and import prices of agricultural commodity prices, while the second is a 50 per cent decline in the export and import prices of crude oil, and the third combines them. In the fourth scenario, government operating expenditure declines by 4 per cent because of the fall in government’s oil revenues as a result of the decline in global oil prices. Findings The simulation results suggest that lower international oil price decreases real gross domestic product (GDP) and investment in Malaysia and influences positively the output and employment of some agriculture sectors. However, lower agricultural commodity price increases real GDP and investment in the country and negatively influences the output, employment and exports of all agriculture sectors. The decline in government expenditures also increases the output and the employment in the economy, whereas it decreases household consumption. In conclusion, results show that the agriculture sector losses from the current decline in international agricultural commodity prices, while it benefits from lower oil and government expenditure. Originality/value The main contribution of this study is comparing the impacts of recent falls in global oil and agricultural prices on the entire economy and agriculture sector of Malaysia. Investigating the impacts of these issues on the poverty level of Malaysian households is another contribution to the study. Another contribution is analyzing the impact of a reduction in government expenditures because of the decline in global oil price on the economy and welfare of Malaysia. Therefore, this study makes a useful contribution to the small literature of the topic.

scholarly journals Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets of Pakistan: Looking for a Preferable Trading Avenue

2020 ◽  
pp. 19-26
Author(s):  
Fakiha Tariq ◽  
Tayyaba Rafique ◽  
Tehseen Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Spot Markets ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
The Impact

The primary objective of this study is to find out the impact of oil price on futures and spot markets of agricultural products in Pakistan. Secondly, the study compares the research findings to suggest less oil price sensitive market for trading agricultural products in Pakistan. Futures (1 and 2 months futures) and spot prices of rice and sugar are taken as proxies for prices of agricultural products representing respective markets. Oil price sensitivity analysis is conducted via Vector Error Correction model. Further, Granger Causality approach is used for the causality analysis. Futures (1 and 2 months futures) and spot prices of rice and sugar are taken as proxies for prices of agricultural products representing derivatives and spot markets respectively. Time series data constituting 7 variables of 60 observations is analyzed from October 2012 to October 2017. The results are then subject to comparison and discussed.

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