scholarly journals Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets of Pakistan: Looking for a Preferable Trading Avenue

2020 ◽  
pp. 19-26
Author(s):  
Fakiha Tariq ◽  
Tayyaba Rafique ◽  
Tehseen Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Spot Markets ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
The Impact

The primary objective of this study is to find out the impact of oil price on futures and spot markets of agricultural products in Pakistan. Secondly, the study compares the research findings to suggest less oil price sensitive market for trading agricultural products in Pakistan. Futures (1 and 2 months futures) and spot prices of rice and sugar are taken as proxies for prices of agricultural products representing respective markets. Oil price sensitivity analysis is conducted via Vector Error Correction model. Further, Granger Causality approach is used for the causality analysis. Futures (1 and 2 months futures) and spot prices of rice and sugar are taken as proxies for prices of agricultural products representing derivatives and spot markets respectively. Time series data constituting 7 variables of 60 observations is analyzed from October 2012 to October 2017. The results are then subject to comparison and discussed.

scholarly journals A quantitative assessment of the impact of government activities on the economy of Poland

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-233
Author(s):  
Daniel Francois Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Government interventions and economic activities could have significant impacts on the economies of countries. Effective governance and quality institutions are required for sustainable economic growth in both developed and developing countries. The primary objective of this study was to analyse the impact of government activities on economic growth in Poland. The study followed a quantitative research approach, employing time series data from 1995 to 2017 including GDP as the dependent variable with variables such as government spending and debt, size and effectiveness of government, and the level of corruption as independent variables. The relationships between the variables were analysed by making use of an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric model. The results indicated that there are both long- and short-run relationships between the variables. Other results indicated that government variables included in the study, caused changes in economic growth as assessed via a Granger causality analysis. A number of recommendations were listed which include inter alia, that effective government spending and management have a positive impact on the economy, while efforts to limit the levels of corruption also contributes to economic improvements in a country.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 730-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of oil price changes on output and inflation for the case of Turkey using monthly time series data for the period 1990:1–2012:3. Recent studies suggest that oil price changes may have asymmetric effects on the macroeconomic variables. To account for asymmetric effects, we decompose oil price changes into positive and negative parts following Hamilton (1996). Our results show that while oil price increases have clear negative effects on output growth, the impact of oil price decline is insignificant. Similarly, oil price increases have positive and significant effects on inflation. However, oil price declines have not a significant effect on inflation. The Granger causality tests also support these results.

scholarly journals Empirical analysis of crude oil consumption and price on Ghana’s economic growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gideon Kweku Appiah ◽  
Ebenezer Oduro ◽  
Shadrack Benn
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

AbstractThe objective of this paper was to investigate the impact of crude oil consumption and oil price on the growth of the Ghanaian economy. It proceeded with annual time series data (1980-2016) sourced from World Development Indicator (WDI) and Energy Information Administration (EIA). All variables used in the study were integrated of order one as suggested by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Further, the Johansen Cointegration test suggested the existence of cointegration among the variables. The study used the OLS estimation procedure.The study found a positive and statistically significant relationship between oil price and economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, an inverse relationship was found between crude oil consumption and economic growth in the long run.Based on the findings the study recommends that the government diversify the economy to reduce the shock the economy might experience in times of oil price shocks. Further, risk management instruments like physical reserves and hedging against oil prices should also be employed.Also, the study recommends policies that encourage efficient consumption of crude oil, especially in the productive sectors like industry in order to trigger growth. This notwithstanding, the study recommends effective measures to mitigate the externalities associated with increased production and consumption of crude oil, such as the carbon tax.

scholarly journals Impact of Capital Flow on Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Empirical evidence from (1980-2010) using ARDL Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bewket Aschale Gashu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Equilibrium ◽  
Capital Flow ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Export Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Evidence abound that some transitioning and developing countries are attracting large inflows of foreign capital that could engender economic growth or have destabilizing effects on their economies if not well managed. This has undoubtedly aroused anxiety over its potential effects on economic growth, the competitiveness of the export and external sectors viability. The study examines the impact of capital flow on economic growth in Ethiopia as well as the causal short-run and long-run relationship among the variables, using time series data from 1980–2010. Using the ARDL Approach, the result revealed that all the variables are statistically significant; which implies that the capital flow has an impact on economic growth in both short- and long-run dynamic equilibrium models. Additionally, VAR and Innovative Accounting Techniques approach to Granger causality analysis showed that there exists bidirectional causality between gross capital flow and economic growth. Consequently, these findings suggest that policy makers should critically understand, the nature, what drives the capital flows and the impact of its sudden surge or reversal on economy. Moreover, it is also recommended that government should continue to pursue trade and foreign exchange policies that would ensure competitiveness of the export sector viability and economic growth.

scholarly journals Welfare Effect of Monetary Financing

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
Tersoo Shimonkabir SHITILE ◽  
Abubakar SULE
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Welfare Loss ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Welfare Losses ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Impact

This study ascertained the direction and asymmetric pass-through of central bank’s monetary financing to welfare in Nigeria using annual time series data covering the period 1970 to 2018. The study depended on both the Monetarist and Keynesian theoretical postulations to provide insights on the policy significance of monetary financing. To undertake the empirical analysis, the study applied both the linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) technique. Unlike the ARDL equation, the estimated NARDL equation established that welfare losses respond negatively to both positive and negative changes in monetary financing; but the impact of negative monetary financing shock (7.11) is greater than the positive shock (2.87). In addition, the study found that it takes about 9 to 11 quarters for the changes in positive and negative monetary financing to fully release its effects on welfare loss. Besides, the results revealed that welfare loss is also driven by oil price, which is suggestive from oil price pass-through to domestic prices (exchange rate and consumer prices). The study, therefore, supports monetary financing in proper amounts and conditions to boost aggregate nominal demand but not to spur a fully-fledged monetary policy capture in the process.

scholarly journals Impact of Oil Price Changes on Certain Budget Variables, Government and Tax Revenues, External Grants, and Government Expenditures in Jordan

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 150
Author(s):  
Amjad Qwader
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Energy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study evaluated the impact of oil price changes on certain budget variables in Jordan over the period of 1992 to 2015. Time series data were analyzed using econometric techniques that included ordinary least squares. Findings from the analysis revealed a statistically significant positive correlation for oil price on government and tax revenues, external grants, and government expenditures, whereas oil price on budget deficits had a statistically significant negative correlation. Therefore, the study proposes that the government of Jordan directly invests its oil tax revenues in economic sectors, such as agriculture and manufacturing, to broaden the sources of revenue, as well as exploit such revenues to establish alternative energy projects, whether from the sun, wind, or both. In addition, the establishment of such projects is suitable for the conditions of the Jordanian environment.

scholarly journals AN ANALYSIS OF PALM OIL PRICE FLUCTUATION IN THE FOREIGN MARKET

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mr. Buyung
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Foreign Market ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
The Other ◽  
Series Data ◽  
International Price ◽  
The Impact

This research is aimed at investigating the impact of price and non-price on the demand for palm oil, supply and stock of palm oil in a foreign market. The data employed in this research were time series data. The analysis used the model of demand, supply and stock of palm oil. Full simultaneity in a dynamic model with inventories was adopted from Nerlove (1956). This research has shown that the supply of palm oil in the foreign market had a positive influence on the price, the area and the supply in previous years while the response of the demand was negative. On the other hand, the income and the demand in the previous years had a positive influence. The palm oil stock was influenced by the quantity in the previous years and international price.

Transport infrastructure of the Rostov Oblast: Problems and prospects for development in the context of national projects implementation

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1015-1034
Author(s):  
O.Yu. Patrakeeva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Rostov Oblast ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The paper considers national projects in the field of transport infrastructure, i.e. Safe and High-quality Roads and Comprehensive Plan for Modernization and Expansion of Trunk Infrastructure, and the specifics of their implementation in the Rostov Oblast. Objectives. The aim is to conduct a statistical assessment of the impact of transport infrastructure on the region’s economic performance and define prospects for and risks of the implementation of national infrastructure projects in conditions of a shrinking economy. Methods. I use available statistics and apply methods and approaches with time-series data, namely stationarity and cointegration tests, vector autoregression models. Results. The level of economic development has an impact on transport infrastructure in the short run. However, the mutual influence has not been statistically confirmed. The paper revealed that investments in the sphere of transport reduce risk of accidents on the roads of the Rostov Oblast. Improving the quality of roads with high traffic flow by reducing investments in the maintenance of subsidiary roads enables to decrease accident rate on the whole. Conclusions. In conditions of economy shrinking caused by the complex epidemiological situation and measures aimed at minimizing the spread of coronavirus, it is crucial to create a solid foundation for further economic recovery. At the government level, it is decided to continue implementing national projects as significant tools for recovery growth.

A Macroeconomic Analysis of Agricultural Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-25
Author(s):  
Isah Funtua Abubakar ◽  
Umar Bambale Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Size Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Impact

This paper attempts to study the Nigerian agriculture industry as a panacea to growth as well as an anchor to the diversification agenda of the present government. To do this, the time series data of the four agriculture subsectors of crop production, livestock, forestry and fishery were analysed as stimulus to the Real GDP from 1981-2016 in order to explicate the individual contributions of the subsectors to the RGDP in order to guide the policy thrust on diversification. Using the Johansen approach to cointegration, all the variables were found to be cointegrated. With the exception of the forestry subsector, all the three subsectors were seen to have impacted on the real GDP at varying degrees during the time under review. The crop production subsector has the highest impact, however, taking size-by-size analysis, the livestock subsector could be of much importance due to its ability to retain its value chain and high investment returns particularly in poultry. Therefore, it is recommended that, the government should intensify efforts to retain the value chain in the crop production subsector, in order to harness its potentials optimally through the encouragement of the establishment of agriculture cottage industries. Secondly, the livestock subsector is found to be the most rapidly growing and commercialized subsector. Therefore, it should be the prime subsector to hinge the diversification agenda naturally. Lastly, the tourism industry which is a source through which the impact of the subsector is channeled to the GDP should be developed, in order to improve the impact of such channel to GDP with the sole objective to resuscitate the forestry subsector.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document