scholarly journals Short-term load forecasting considering improved cumulative effect of hourly temperature

2022 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 107746
Author(s):  
Min Wang ◽  
Zixuan Yu ◽  
Yuan Chen ◽  
Xingang Yang ◽  
Jian Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Hourly Temperature ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

scholarly journals Short-term load forecasting using Theta method

2019 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
pp. 01004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grzegorz Dudek
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Cycles ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Data Definition ◽  
System Data ◽  
Theta Method

The Theta method attracted the attention of researchers and practitioners in recent years due to its simplicity and superior forecasting accuracy. Its performance has been confirmed by many empirical studies as well as forecasting competitions. In this article the Theta method is tested in short-term load forecasting problem. The load time series expressing multiple seasonal cycles is decomposed in different ways to simplify the forecasting problem. Four variants of input data definition are considered. The standard Theta method is uses as well as the dynamic optimised Theta model proposed recently. The performances of the Theta models are demonstrated through an empirical application using real power system data and compared with other popular forecasting methods.

scholarly journals An Attention-Based Multilayer GRU Model for Multistep-Ahead Short-Term Load Forecasting

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1639
Author(s):  
Seungmin Jung ◽  
Jihoon Moon ◽  
Sungwoo Park ◽  
Eenjun Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Power Consumption ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Input Sequence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Performance Improvements ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Significant Performance ◽  
Input Variables

Recently, multistep-ahead prediction has attracted much attention in electric load forecasting because it can deal with sudden changes in power consumption caused by various events such as fire and heat wave for a day from the present time. On the other hand, recurrent neural networks (RNNs), including long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, can reflect the previous point well to predict the current point. Due to this property, they have been widely used for multistep-ahead prediction. The GRU model is simple and easy to implement; however, its prediction performance is limited because it considers all input variables equally. In this paper, we propose a short-term load forecasting model using an attention based GRU to focus more on the crucial variables and demonstrate that this can achieve significant performance improvements, especially when the input sequence of RNN is long. Through extensive experiments, we show that the proposed model outperforms other recent multistep-ahead prediction models in the building-level power consumption forecasting.

Convolutional and recurrent neural network based model for short-term load forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 195 ◽  
pp. 107173
Author(s):  
Hosein Eskandari ◽  
Maryam Imani ◽  
Mohsen Parsa Moghaddam
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting
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