scholarly journals An Attention-Based Multilayer GRU Model for Multistep-Ahead Short-Term Load Forecasting

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1639
Author(s):  
Seungmin Jung ◽  
Jihoon Moon ◽  
Sungwoo Park ◽  
Eenjun Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Power Consumption ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Input Sequence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Performance Improvements ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Significant Performance ◽  
Input Variables

Recently, multistep-ahead prediction has attracted much attention in electric load forecasting because it can deal with sudden changes in power consumption caused by various events such as fire and heat wave for a day from the present time. On the other hand, recurrent neural networks (RNNs), including long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, can reflect the previous point well to predict the current point. Due to this property, they have been widely used for multistep-ahead prediction. The GRU model is simple and easy to implement; however, its prediction performance is limited because it considers all input variables equally. In this paper, we propose a short-term load forecasting model using an attention based GRU to focus more on the crucial variables and demonstrate that this can achieve significant performance improvements, especially when the input sequence of RNN is long. Through extensive experiments, we show that the proposed model outperforms other recent multistep-ahead prediction models in the building-level power consumption forecasting.

scholarly journals A Novel Load Forecasting Approach Based on Smart Meter Data Using Advance Preprocessing and Hybrid Deep Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2742
Author(s):  
Fatih Ünal ◽  
Abdulaziz Almalaq ◽  
Sami Ekici
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Planning And Scheduling ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

Short-term load forecasting models play a critical role in distribution companies in making effective decisions in their planning and scheduling for production and load balancing. Unlike aggregated load forecasting at the distribution level or substations, forecasting load profiles of many end-users at the customer-level, thanks to smart meters, is a complicated problem due to the high variability and uncertainty of load consumptions as well as customer privacy issues. In terms of customers’ short-term load forecasting, these models include a high level of nonlinearity between input data and output predictions, demanding more robustness, higher prediction accuracy, and generalizability. In this paper, we develop an advanced preprocessing technique coupled with a hybrid sequential learning-based energy forecasting model that employs a convolution neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BLSTM) within a unified framework for accurate energy consumption prediction. The energy consumption outliers and feature clustering are extracted at the advanced preprocessing stage. The novel hybrid deep learning approach based on data features coding and decoding is implemented in the prediction stage. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real-world datasets in Turkey, and the results outperformed the traditional prediction models compared in this paper.

scholarly journals Short-Term Load Forecasting of Microgrid via Hybrid Support Vector Regression and Long Short-Term Memory Algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 7076 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arash Moradzadeh ◽  
Sahar Zakeri ◽  
Maryam Shoaran ◽  
Behnam Mohammadi-Ivatloo ◽  
Fazel Mohammadi
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Input Variables

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is the most appropriate type of forecasting for both electricity consumers and generators. In this paper, STLF in a Microgrid (MG) is performed via the hybrid applications of machine learning. The proposed model is a modified Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) called SVR-LSTM. In order to forecast the load, the proposed method is applied to the data related to a rural MG in Africa. Factors influencing the MG load, such as various household types and commercial entities, are selected as input variables and load profiles as target variables. Identifying the behavioral patterns of input variables as well as modeling their behavior in short-term periods of time are the major capabilities of the hybrid SVR-LSTM model. To present the efficiency of the suggested method, the conventional SVR and LSTM models are also applied to the used data. The results of the load forecasts by each network are evaluated using various statistical performance metrics. The obtained results show that the SVR-LSTM model with the highest correlation coefficient, i.e., 0.9901, is able to provide better results than SVR and LSTM, which have the values of 0.9770 and 0.9809, respectively. Finally, the results are compared with the results of other studies in this field, which continued to emphasize the superiority of the SVR-LSTM model.

scholarly journals Deep Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory for Electric Power Load Forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (18) ◽  
pp. 6489
Author(s):  
Namrye Son ◽  
Seunghak Yang ◽  
Jeongseung Na
Keyword(s):  
Power Consumption ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Power Demand ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Electric Power Load

Forecasting domestic and foreign power demand is crucial for planning the operation and expansion of facilities. Power demand patterns are very complex owing to energy market deregulation. Therefore, developing an appropriate power forecasting model for an electrical grid is challenging. In particular, when consumers use power irregularly, the utility cannot accurately predict short- and long-term power consumption. Utilities that experience short- and long-term power demands cannot operate power supplies reliably; in worst-case scenarios, blackouts occur. Therefore, the utility must predict the power demands by analyzing the customers’ power consumption patterns for power supply stabilization. For this, a medium- and long-term power forecasting is proposed. The electricity demand forecast was divided into medium-term and long-term load forecast for customers with different power consumption patterns. Among various deep learning methods, deep neural networks (DNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) were employed for the time series prediction. The DNN and LSTM performances were compared to verify the proposed model. The two models were tested, and the results were examined with the accuracies of the six most commonly used evaluation measures in the medium- and long-term electric power load forecasting. The DNN outperformed the LSTM, regardless of the customer’s power pattern.

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