scholarly journals Scenario analysis and sensitivity exploration of the MEDEAS Europe energy-economy-environment model

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 100582
Author(s):  
Roger Samsó ◽  
Ignacio de Blas ◽  
Ilaria Perissi ◽  
Gianluca Martelloni ◽  
Jordi Solé
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Environment Model ◽  
Energy Economy

scholarly journals Global Sustainability Crossroads: A Participatory Simulation Game to Educate in the Energy and Sustainability Challenges of the 21st Century

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3672 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iñigo Capellán-Pérez ◽  
David Álvarez-Antelo ◽  
Luis J. Miguel
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Simulation Game ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Global Sustainability ◽  
Environmental Consequences ◽  
Environment Model ◽  
Participatory Simulation ◽  
Simulation Group ◽  
Energy Economy ◽  
Sustainability Challenges

There is a general need to facilitate citizens’ understanding of the global sustainability problem with the dual purpose of raising their awareness of the seriousness of the problem and helping them get closer to understanding the complexity of the solutions. Here, the design and application of the participatory simulation game Global Sustainability Crossroads is described, based on a global state-of-the-art energy–economy–environment model, which creates a virtual scenario where the participants are confronted with the design of climate mitigation strategies as well as the social, economic, and environmental consequences of decisions. The novelty of the game rests on the global scope and the representation of the drivers of anthropogenic emissions within the MEDEAS-World model, combined with a participatory simulation group dynamic flexible enough to be adapted to a diversity of contexts and participants. The performance of 13 game workshops with ~420 players has shown it has a significant pedagogical potential: the game is able to generate discussions on crucial topics which are usually outside the public realm such as the relationship between economic growth and sustainability, the role of technology, how human desires are limited by biophysical constraints or the possibility of climate tipping points.

scholarly journals Cross-Validation of the MEDEAS Energy-Economy-Environment Model with the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1967
Author(s):  
Ilaria Perissi ◽  
Gianluca Martelloni ◽  
Ugo Bardi ◽  
Davide Natalini ◽  
Aled Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Decision Tools ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models ◽  
Environment Model ◽  
Energy Economy

In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of integrated assessment models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modeling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different integrated assessment models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP). The investigation was carried out to cross-compare and benchmark the response of MEDEAS models with TIMES and LEAP in depicting the energy transition in two different countries, Austria and Bulgaria. The preliminary results show a good agreement across all the models in representing scenarios projecting historical trends, while a major discrepancy is detectable when the rate of implementation of renewable energy is forced to increase to achieve energy system decarbonization. The discrepancy is mainly traceable to the differences in the models’ conception and structures rather than in a real mismatch in representing the same scenarios. The present study is put forward as a guideline for validating new modeling approaches that link energy policy decision tools to the global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints.

scholarly journals Dynamic Evaluation of Policy Feasibility, Feedbacks and the Ambitions of COALitions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Bi ◽  
Nico Bauer ◽  
Jessica Jewell
Keyword(s):  
Policy Evaluation ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Economy Model ◽  
Median Estimate ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Energy Economy ◽  
Dynamic Policy

Abstract The Paris Agreement prioritised international bottom-up climate negotiations. Meanwhile, research has asserted the coal exit as a prerequisite for Paris-consistent pathways. The Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), an opt-in initiative toward phasing-out coal-fired electricity by mid-century, embodies both paradigms but currently encompasses just 5% of global coal demand. To assess its long-term prospects against Paris-consistent pathways, we couple the energy-economy model REMIND to an empirical coalition accession model and demonstrate a novel scenario analysis technique, Dynamic Policy Evaluation (DPE). Capturing co-evolutionary feedbacks between policy uptake and global energy markets, we simulate nationally-and-temporally-fragmented PPCA accession and analyse its sensitivity to coalition growth, sectoral ambition, and Covid-19-related uncertainty. Surprisingly, we find that virtually-global PPCA participation achieves <3% of 1.5oC-consistent coal declines, as non-electric consumption remains unregulated. In contrast, our median-estimate scenario (82% accession) assuming economy-wide coverage achieves ~53% efficacy (virtually-global: ~85%), suggesting that the PPCA should prioritise policy ambition over coalition expansion.

scholarly journals An Energy-Economy-Environment Model for Simulating the Impacts of Socioeconomic Development on Energy and Environment

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Wenyi Wang ◽  
Weihua Zeng ◽  
Bo Yao
Keyword(s):  
Solid Waste ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Developing Regions ◽  
Energy And Environment ◽  
Environment Model ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Energy Economy ◽  
Key Issues

Many rapidly developing regions have begun to draw the attention of the world. Meanwhile, the energy and environmental issues associated with rapid economic growth have aroused widespread critical concern. Therefore, studying energy, economic, and environmental systems is of great importance. This study establishes a system dynamic model that covers multiple aspects of those systems, such as energy, economy, population, water pollution, air pollution, solid waste, and technology. The model designed here attempts to determine the impacts of socioeconomic development on the energy and environment of Tongzhou District in three scenarios: under current, planning, and sustainable conditions. The results reveal that energy shortages and water pollutions are very serious and are the key issues constraining future social and economic development. Solid waste emissions increase with population growth. The prediction results provide valuable insights into social advancement.

scholarly journals Dynamic Evaluation of Policy Feasibility, Feedbacks and the Ambitions of COALitions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Bi ◽  
Nico Bauer ◽  
Jessica Jewell
Keyword(s):  
Policy Evaluation ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Economy Model ◽  
Median Estimate ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Energy Economy ◽  
Dynamic Policy

Abstract The Paris Agreement prioritised international bottom-up climate negotiations. Meanwhile, research has asserted the coal exit as a prerequisite for Paris-consistent pathways. The Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), an opt-in initiative toward phasing-out coal-fired electricity by mid-century, embodies both paradigms but currently encompasses just 5% of global coal demand. To assess its long-term prospects against Paris-consistent pathways, we couple the energy-economy model REMIND to an empirical coalition accession model and demonstrate a novel scenario analysis technique, Dynamic Policy Evaluation (DPE). Capturing co-evolutionary feedbacks between policy uptake and global energy markets, we simulate nationally-and-temporally-fragmented PPCA accession and analyse its sensitivity to coalition growth, sectoral ambition, and Covid-19-related uncertainty. Surprisingly, we find that virtually-global PPCA participation achieves <3% of 1.5oC-consistent coal declines, as non-electric consumption remains unregulated. In contrast, our median-estimate scenario (82% accession) assuming economy-wide coverage achieves ~53% efficacy (virtually-global: ~85%), suggesting that the PPCA should prioritise policy ambition over coalition expansion.

Carbon Chain Growth by Sequential Reactions of CO and CO2 with a Transition Metal Carbonyl Complex

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Kong ◽  
Mark Crimmin
Keyword(s):  
Transition Metal ◽  
Metal Carbonyl ◽  
Carbon Chain ◽  
Chain Growth ◽  
Carbonyl Complex ◽  
Fischer Tropsch ◽  
Carbon Chains ◽  
Sequential Coupling ◽  
Energy Economy ◽  
Sequential Reactions

<i>The formation of carbon chains by the coupling of COx (X = 1 or 2) units on transition metals is a fundamental step relevant to Fischer-Tropsch catalysis. Fischer-Tropsch catalysis produces energy dense liquid hydrocarbons from synthesis gas (CO and H2) and has been a mainstay of the energy economy since its discovery nearly a century ago. Despite detailed studies aimed at elucidating the steps of catalysis, experimental evidence for chain growth (Cn to Cn+1 ; n > 2) from the reaction of CO with metal complexes is unprecedented. In this paper, we show that carbon chains can be grown from sequential reactions of CO or CO2 with a transition metal carbonyl complex. By exploiting the cooperative effect of transition and main group metals, we document the first example of chain propagation from sequential coupling of CO units (C1 to C3 to C4), along with the first example of incorporation of CO2 into the growing carbon chain.</i><br>

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