scholarly journals Cross-Validation of the MEDEAS Energy-Economy-Environment Model with the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1967
Author(s):  
Ilaria Perissi ◽  
Gianluca Martelloni ◽  
Ugo Bardi ◽  
Davide Natalini ◽  
Aled Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Decision Tools ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models ◽  
Environment Model ◽  
Energy Economy

In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of integrated assessment models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modeling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different integrated assessment models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP). The investigation was carried out to cross-compare and benchmark the response of MEDEAS models with TIMES and LEAP in depicting the energy transition in two different countries, Austria and Bulgaria. The preliminary results show a good agreement across all the models in representing scenarios projecting historical trends, while a major discrepancy is detectable when the rate of implementation of renewable energy is forced to increase to achieve energy system decarbonization. The discrepancy is mainly traceable to the differences in the models’ conception and structures rather than in a real mismatch in representing the same scenarios. The present study is put forward as a guideline for validating new modeling approaches that link energy policy decision tools to the global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints.

scholarly journals Cross-Validation of the MEDEAS Energy-Economy-Environment Model with the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilaria Perissi ◽  
Gianluca Martelloni ◽  
Ugo Bardi ◽  
Davide Natalini ◽  
Aled Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Decision Tools ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models ◽  
Environment Model

In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of Integrated Assessment Models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modelling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different Integrated Assessment Models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP). The investigation was carried out to cross-compare and benchmark the response of MEDEAS models with TIMES and LEAP in depicting the energy transition in two different countries, Austria and Bulgaria. The preliminary results show a good agreement across all the models in representing scenarios projecting historical trends, while a major discrepancy is detectable when the rate of implementation of renewable energy is forced to increase to achieve energy system decarbonization. The discrepancy is mainly traceable to the differences in the models’ conception and structures rather than in a real mismatch in representing the same scenarios. The present study is put forward as a guideline for validating new modelling approaches that link energy policy decision tools to the global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints.

scholarly journals Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models

Energy Policy ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 86 ◽  
pp. 705-717 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul L. Lucas ◽  
Jens Nielsen ◽  
Katherine Calvin ◽  
David L. McCollum ◽  
Giacomo Marangoni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models ◽  
Future Energy System

scholarly journals Global Sustainability Crossroads: A Participatory Simulation Game to Educate in the Energy and Sustainability Challenges of the 21st Century

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3672 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iñigo Capellán-Pérez ◽  
David Álvarez-Antelo ◽  
Luis J. Miguel
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Simulation Game ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Global Sustainability ◽  
Environmental Consequences ◽  
Environment Model ◽  
Participatory Simulation ◽  
Simulation Group ◽  
Energy Economy ◽  
Sustainability Challenges

There is a general need to facilitate citizens’ understanding of the global sustainability problem with the dual purpose of raising their awareness of the seriousness of the problem and helping them get closer to understanding the complexity of the solutions. Here, the design and application of the participatory simulation game Global Sustainability Crossroads is described, based on a global state-of-the-art energy–economy–environment model, which creates a virtual scenario where the participants are confronted with the design of climate mitigation strategies as well as the social, economic, and environmental consequences of decisions. The novelty of the game rests on the global scope and the representation of the drivers of anthropogenic emissions within the MEDEAS-World model, combined with a participatory simulation group dynamic flexible enough to be adapted to a diversity of contexts and participants. The performance of 13 game workshops with ~420 players has shown it has a significant pedagogical potential: the game is able to generate discussions on crucial topics which are usually outside the public realm such as the relationship between economic growth and sustainability, the role of technology, how human desires are limited by biophysical constraints or the possibility of climate tipping points.

scholarly journals The role of biomaterials for the energy transition from the lens of a national integrated assessment model

2021 ◽  
Vol 167 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilla C. N. de Oliveira ◽  
Gerd Angelkorte ◽  
Pedro R. R. Rochedo ◽  
Alexandre Szklo
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model

scholarly journals Changing Technology or Behavior? The Impacts of a Behavioral Disruption

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5861
Author(s):  
Marianne Pedinotti-Castelle ◽  
Pierre-Olivier Pineau ◽  
Kathleen Vaillancourt ◽  
Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Behavior Changes ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
The North ◽  
Behavioral Disruption ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Additional Costs

Transportation is a key factor in the fight against climate change. Consumer behavior changes in transportation are underrepresented in energy policies, even if they could be essential to achieve the fixed GHG emission reduction targets. To help quantify the role of behaviors in energy transition and their implications on the dynamics of an energy system, this study is conducted using the North American TIMES Energy Model, adapted to Quebec (Canada). A behavioral disruption scenario (an increase in carpooling) is introduced in the model’s transportation sector and is compared to a massive electrification scenario. Our results highlight the fact that a behavioral disruption can lead to the same GHG emission reductions (65%) by 2050 as an electrification policy, while alleviating different efforts (such as additional electrical capacity and additional costs) associated with massive electrification. Moreover, the results are sensitive to behavior-related parameters, such as social discount rates and car lifetimes.

scholarly journals Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation

2021 ◽  
Vol 166 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlie Wilson ◽  
Céline Guivarch ◽  
Elmar Kriegler ◽  
Bas van Ruijven ◽  
Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Evaluation Research ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Change Mitigation

AbstractProcess-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.

scholarly journals An integrated assessment of a low coal low nuclear future energy system for Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 100022
Author(s):  
Candelaria Bergero ◽  
Matthew Binsted ◽  
Chia-Wei Chao ◽  
Kuei-Tien Chou ◽  
Cheng-Cheng Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Future Energy System
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