Air pollutions and loan decision bias

2022 ◽  
Vol 72 ◽  
pp. 102420
Author(s):  
Zhongfei Chen ◽  
Ming Jin ◽  
Fanglin Chen
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Zhujun Dai ◽  
Duanyang Liu ◽  
Kun Yu ◽  
Lu Cao ◽  
Youshan Jiang

Steady meteorological conditions are important external factors affecting air pollution. In order to analyze how adverse meteorological variables affect air pollution, surface synoptic situation patterns and meteorological conditions during heavy pollution episodes are discussed. The results showed that there were 78 RPHPDs (regional PM2.5 pollution days) in Jiangsu, with a decreasing trend year by year. Winter had the most stable meteorological conditions, thus most RPHPDs appeared in winter, followed by autumn and summer, with the least days in spring. RPHPDs were classified into three patterns, respectively, as equalized pressure (EQP), advancing edge of a cold front (ACF) and inverted trough of low pressure (INT) according to the SLP (sea level pressure). RPHPDs under EQP were the most (51%), followed by ACF (37%); INT was the minimum (12%). Using statistical methods and meteorological condition data on RPHPDs from 2013 to 2017 to deduce the thresholds and 2018 as an independent dataset to validate the proposed thresholds, the threshold values of meteorological elements are summarized as follows. The probability of RPHPDs without rain was above 92% with the daily and hourly precipitation of all RPHPDs below 2.1 mm and 0.8 mm. Wind speed, RHs, inversion intensity(ITI), height difference in the temperature inversion(ITK), the lower height of temperature inversion (LHTI) and mixed-layer height (MLH) in terms of 25%–75% high probability range were respectively within 0.5–3.6 m s−1, 55%–92%, 0.7–4.0 °C 100 m −1, 42–576 m, 3–570 m, 200–1200 m. Two conditions should be considered: whether the pattern was EQP, ACF or INT and whether the eight meteorological elements are within the thresholds. If both criteria are met, PM2.5 particles tend to accumulate and air pollution diffusion conditions are poor. Unfavorable meteorological conditions are the necessary, but not sufficient condition for RPHPDs.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianwu Sun ◽  
Xinsheng Xu

We introduce loss aversion into the decision framework of the newsvendor model. By introducing the loss aversion coefficientλ, we propose a novel utility function for the loss-averse newsvendor. First, we obtain the optimal order quantity to maximize the expected utility for the loss-averse newsvendor who is risk-neutral. It is found that this optimal order quantity is smaller than the expected profit maximization order quantity in the classical newsvendor model, which may help to explain the decision bias in the classical newsvendor model. Then, to reduce the risk which originates from the fluctuation in the market demand, we achieve the optimal order quantity to maximize CVaR about utility for the loss-averse newsvendor who is risk-averse. We find that this optimal order quantity is smaller than the optimal order quantity to maximize the expected utility above and is decreasing in the confidence levelα. Further, it is proved that the expected utility under this optimal order quantity is decreasing in the confidence levelα, which verifies that low risk implies low return. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the obtained results and some management insights are suggested for the loss-averse newsvendor model.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 336-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omid Nikoubashman ◽  
Thomas Probst ◽  
Kolja Schürmann ◽  
Ahmed E Othman ◽  
Oliver Matz ◽  
...  

BackgroundEpidemiologic studies identified a ‘weekend effect’ or ‘out-of-hours effect’, which implies that procedural and clinical outcomes of patients with stroke, who are admitted out-of-hours, are less favorable than for patients admitted during working-hours.ObjectiveTo determine (1) whether our procedural times and clinical outcome were affected by an out-of-hours effect and (2) whether the decision in favor of, or against, endovascular stroke treatment (EST) depends on the time of admission.MethodsBetween February 2010 and January 2015, 6412 consecutive patients presenting with symptoms of acute ischemic stroke were evaluated for EST eligibility according to established local protocols and generally accepted consensus criteria, and dichotomized into working-hours and out-of-hours cohorts according to admission times. Within both groups, patients given EST were identified and the rate of treatment decision, procedural times, and clinical outcome were compared and analyzed.ResultsClinical and radiological features of patients admitted in working-hours and out-of-hours did not differ significantly. Procedural times and clinical outcome were not affected by an out-of-hours effect (p≥0.054). 221/240 (92.1%) out-of-hours patients and 154/166 (92.8%) working-hours patients who were eligible for EST were transferred to the angiography suite for EST (p=0.798). The rationale not to treat patients who were eligible for EST did not differ between working-hours and out-of-hours admission (p=0.756).ConclusionsIt is possible to produce competitive procedural times regardless of the time of admission and to prevent a treatment decision bias when standard operating procedures are applied consistently.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-18
Author(s):  
Dirja Nur Ilham ◽  
Rudi Arif Candra ◽  
Muhammed Saat Talib ◽  
Mario di Nardo ◽  
Khusnul Azima

Smoke is one of the air pollutions that is very detrimental to the health of both the smoker himself and others around him. Inhaling other people's smoke is even more dangerous than inhaling your own smoke. Even the dangers that must be borne by passive smokers are three times greater than the dangers of active smokers. Smoke is also very detrimental to the health of patients in hospitals, especially patients who suffer from asthma. For people with asthma who have problems in the respiratory tract, asthma can recur at any time due to inhaling smoke. This research will develop a smart room that can detect smoke to maintain and protect the room from smoke that interferes with health. The tool to be developed uses an MQ2 sensor, LCD, exhaust fan, buzzer, and Arduino Uno microcontroller. Where an MQ2 sensor is needed to detect smoke around it, an LCD is needed to display the percentage of smoke, a microcontroller as a controller for all components, a buzzer is used as an alarm when the smoke level in the room is unhealthy, and the exhaust fan functions as a sucker for dirty air so that the smoke level in the room can be reduced.


Mathematics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoqing Liu ◽  
Felix T. S. Chan ◽  
Xinsheng Xu

This paper studies the optimal order decisions for the loss-averse newsvendor problem with backordering and contributes to the risk hedging issue in the newsvendor model. The Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) measure is applied to quantify the potential risks for the loss-averse newsvendor in a backordering setting, and we obtain the optimal order quantity for a loss-averse newsvendor to maximize the CVaR of utility. It is found that the optimal order quantity to maximize the CVaR objective could be bigger or smaller than the expected profit maximization (EPM) order quantity, which provides an alternative explanation on decision bias in the newsvendor model. This study also reveals that the optimal order quantity for a loss-averse newsvendor to maximize expected utility with backordering is smaller than the EPM order quantity, which implies that backordering encourages the loss-averse newsvendor to order fewer items. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the properties of the optimal order quantities and managerial insights are suggested. This paper provides a novel method for the risk management of the loss-averse newsvendor model and presents several new ordering policies for the retailers in practice.


2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (9) ◽  
pp. 1191-1199
Author(s):  
Susanne Becker ◽  
Martin Löffler ◽  
Ben Seymour

The notion that reward inhibits pain is a well-supported observation in both humans and animals, allowing suppression of pain reflexes to acquired rewarding stimuli. However, a blanket inhibition of pain by reward would also impair pain discrimination. In contrast, early counterconditioning experiments implied that reward might actually spare pain discrimination. To test this hypothesis, we investigated whether discriminative performance was enhanced or inhibited by reward. We found in adult human volunteers ( N = 25) that pain-based discriminative ability is actually enhanced by reward, especially when reward is directly contingent on discriminative performance. Drift-diffusion modeling shows that this relates to an augmentation of the underlying sensory signal strength and is not merely an effect of decision bias. This enhancement of sensory-discriminative pain-information processing suggests that whereas reward can promote reward-acquiring behavior by inhibition of pain in some circumstances, it can also facilitate important discriminative information of the sensory input when necessary.


2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 263-287
Author(s):  
Yan Yu ◽  
Ben Qianqian Liu ◽  
Jin-Xing Hao ◽  
Chuanqi Wang

Purpose Prior literature indicates conflicting effects of online product information, which may complicate or simplify consumer purchase decisions. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate how different online product information (i.e. the choice set size and the popularity information and its presentation) affect consumers’ decision making and the related market outcomes. Design/methodology/approach This research relies on information-processing theories and social learning theory. By stepwise conducting two 2×2 within-subject factorial design experiments, this research examines the effects of the choice set size, product popularity information and product presentation on consumers’ decision making and the aggregated market outcomes. Findings The results show that product popularity information led consumers to either simplify or complicate their decision strategy, depending on the size of the choice sets. Additionally, presenting products by their popularity in descending order resulted in consumers making decisions with a larger decision bias. The results also show that the presence of product popularity was more likely to forge a “superstar” structure in a large market. Practical implications The research suggests that e-retailers and e-marketplace operators should carefully utilize product popularity information. Multiple mechanisms that shape different shopping environments with different orders are necessary to create a long-tailed market structure. Originality/value This study found the mixed effects of product popularity information when it is presented in different environments (i.e. the large/small choice set and the sorted/randomized product presentation). The overuse of popularity information may induce consumers’ decision bias.


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