Spatiotemporal variation analysis of driving forces of urban land spatial expansion using logistic regression: A case study of port towns in Taicang City, China

2014 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 181-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bangrong Shu ◽  
Honghui Zhang ◽  
Yongle Li ◽  
Yi Qu ◽  
Lihong Chen
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 2025
Author(s):  
Yang Zhang ◽  
Yanfang Liu ◽  
Yan Zhang ◽  
Xuesong Kong ◽  
Ying Jing ◽  
...  

The delimitation of three land management red lines (LMRLs), which refers to urban growth boundaries (UGBs), ecological protection redlines (EPRs), and basic farmland protection zones (BFPZs), has been regarded as a control method for promoting sustainable urban development in China. However, in many Chinese cities, conflicts extensively exist among the three LMRLs in terms of spatial partitioning. This study clarifies the connotation of conflicts among the three LMRLs. Moreover, a red line conflict index (RLCI) is established to characterize the intensity of conflicts among the three LMRLs. The Wuhan Urban Development Area (WUDA) is used for a case study, in which the spatial patterns of the three types of conflicts among the three LMRLs (i.e., conflicts between EPRs and BFPZs, EPRs and UGBs, and UGBs and BFPZs) are analyzed through numerous spatial statistical analysis methods (including spatial autocorrelation, urban-rural gradient, and landscape pattern analyses). In addition, the driving forces of these conflicts are identified from the perspectives of natural physics, socioeconomic development, neighborhood, policy and planning using three binary logistic regression models. Results show that the conflicts between EPRs and BFPZs, EPRs and UGBs, and UGBs and BFPZs are mainly distributed on the edge of the WUDA, inside Wuhan’s third circulation line, and at the urban–rural transition zone, respectively. The patch of conflict between BFPZs and UGBs has the lowest aggregation degree, the highest fragmentation degree, and the most complex shape. Logistic regression results show that the combination and relative importance of driving factors vary in the three types of conflicts among the three LMRLs. In the conflict between EPRs and BFPZs, the distance to city centers is the most important influencing factor, followed by the proportion of ecological land and elevation. In the conflict between UGBs and EPRs, the proportion of construction land, the distance to city centers, and whether the land unit is within the scope of a restricted development zone are the three most important factors. The proportion of construction land, the distances to the Yangtze and Han Rivers, and the proportion of cultivated land significantly influence the conflict between UGBs and BFPZs. This study aids in our understanding of the causes and mechanisms of conflicts among the three LMRLs, and provides important information for the “integration of multi-planning” and land management in Wuhan and similar cities.


Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daquan Huang ◽  
Xin Tan ◽  
Tao Liu ◽  
Erxuan Chu ◽  
Fanhao Kong

Worldwide urban spatial expansion has become a hot topic in recent decades. To develop effective urban growth containment strategies, it is important to understand the spatial patterns and driving forces of urban sprawl. By employing a spatial analysis method and land use survey data for the years 1996–2010, this study explores the effects of hierarchical administrative centers on the intensity and direction of urban land expansion in a Beijing municipality. The results are as follows: (1) land development intensity and expansion speeds are both affected significantly by the municipal and district and county centers where the governments hold a lot of administrative, public, and economic resources. (2) The distances to the administrative centers are determinant factors for the direction of urban land expansion. Except for several subregions adjacent to the municipal center, the closer the area is to an administrative center, the more likely it is that the expansion direction points toward the center. (3) The spatial patterns of urban land development are shaped jointly by governments at different levels, and transportation lines also play a role in remote areas. These findings are expected to have consulting value for future policymaking on urban land use and management in mega-cities, especially those with strong local government powers in other transition economies and developing countries.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8490
Author(s):  
Hongjie Peng ◽  
Lei Hua ◽  
Xuesong Zhang ◽  
Xuying Yuan ◽  
Jianhao Li

In recent years, ecosystem service values (ESV) have attracted much attention. However, studies that use ecological sensitivity methods as a basis for predicting future urban expansion and thus analyzing spatial-temporal change of ESV are scarce in the region. In this study, we used the CA-Markov model to predict the 2030 urban expansion under ecological sensitivity in the Three Gorges reservoir area based on multi-source data, estimations of ESV from 2000 to 2018 and predictions of ESV losses from 2018 to 2030. Research results: (i) In the concept of green development, the ecological sensitive zone has been identified in Three Gorges reservoir area; it accounts for about 35.86% of the study area. (ii) It is predicted that the 2030 urban land will reach 211,412.51 ha by overlaying the ecological sensitive zone. (iii) The total ESV of Three Gorges Reservoir area showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2018 with growth values of about USD 3644.26 million, but the ESVs of 16 districts were decreasing, with Dadukou and Jiangbei having the highest reductions. (iv) New urban land increases by 80,026.02 ha from 2018 to 2030. The overall ESV losses are about USD 268.75 million. Jiulongpo, Banan and Shapingba had the highest ESV losses.


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