scholarly journals Intermittency and obsolescence: A Croston method with linear decay

Author(s):  
S.D. Prestwich ◽  
S.A. Tarim ◽  
R. Rossi
Keyword(s):  
2018 ◽  
Vol 620 ◽  
pp. A191 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Benko ◽  
S. J. González Manrique ◽  
H. Balthasar ◽  
P. Gömöry ◽  
C. Kuckein ◽  
...  

Context. It has been empirically determined that the umbra-penumbra boundaries of stable sunspots are characterized by a constant value of the vertical magnetic field. Aims. We analyzed the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field properties of a decaying sunspot belonging to NOAA 11277 between August 28–September 3, 2011. The observations were acquired with the spectropolarimeter on-board of the Hinode satellite. We aim to prove the validity of the constant vertical magnetic-field boundary between the umbra and penumbra in decaying sunspots. Methods. A spectral-line inversion technique was used to infer the magnetic field vector from the full-Stokes profiles. In total, eight maps were inverted and the variation of the magnetic properties in time were quantified using linear or quadratic fits. Results. We find a linear decay of the umbral vertical magnetic field, magnetic flux, and area. The penumbra showed a linear increase of the vertical magnetic field and a sharp decay of the magnetic flux. In addition, the penumbral area quadratically decayed. The vertical component of the magnetic field is weaker on the umbra-penumbra boundary of the studied decaying sunspot compared to stable sunspots. Its value seem to be steadily decreasing during the decay phase. Moreover, at any time of the sunspot decay shown, the inner penumbra boundary does not match with a constant value of the vertical magnetic field, contrary to what is seen in stable sunspots. Conclusions. During the decaying phase of the studied sunspot, the umbra does not have a sufficiently strong vertical component of the magnetic field and is thus unstable and prone to be disintegrated by convection or magnetic diffusion. No constant value of the vertical magnetic field is found for the inner penumbral boundary.


1975 ◽  
Vol 229 (2) ◽  
pp. 365-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
JC Swaner ◽  
WE Connor

After the establishment of a relatively linear decay curve for plasma [4-14C]cholesterol, rabbits were starved for 26-32 days. The plasma cholesterol concentration increased 400% during starvation. Concurrently, the plasma triglyceride level declined by 50%. While the plasma cholesterol was rising, the cholesterol specific radioactivity of the plasma remained unchanged in starved animals, but in control animals the plasma cholesterol specific radioactivity declined substantially. The cholesterol content of the liver and adipose tissue increased with starvation. The cholesterol specific radioactivities relative to plasma for adipose tissue were lower in the starved animals versus controls. These results support the hypothesis that cholesterol stored in the lipid droplet of the adipose tissue cell is released into plasma and is the chief source of the hypercholesterolemia observed during complete caloric starvation. Cholesterol metabolism in the starved animal can be depicted as a virtually closed system in both the input from biosynthesis and diet being low or zero and the output likewise being close to zero.


Friction ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 970-981
Author(s):  
Xiaogang Zhang ◽  
Yali Zhang ◽  
Zhongmin Jin

AbstractThe elastic loading behaviour of rough surfaces is derived based on the physical understanding of the contact phenomena, where the pressure distribution is analytically obtained without any negative values or convergence problems, thus the evolution of the contact behaviour is obtained in a semi-analytical manner. Numerical results obtained by the proposed approach facilitate the understanding of the contact behaviour in the following aspects: 1) the ratio of contact area to load decreases with an increase in real contact area; 2) normal approach-load relationship is approximated by an exponential decay under relatively small loads and a linear decay under relatively large loads; and 3) average gap shows an exponential relationship with load only in moderate load range.


2002 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 556-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandip Mitra ◽  
Paul Chamney ◽  
Roger Greenwood ◽  
Ken Farrington

Author(s):  
Jan Sieber ◽  
J. Michael T. Thompson

Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes increasingly precarious in the presence of noisy disturbances. We argue that one needs to extract information about the nonlinear features (a ‘softening’) of the underlying potential from the time series to judge the probability and timing of tipping. This analysis is the logical next step if one has detected a decrease of the linear decay rate. If there is no discernible trend in the linear analysis, nonlinear softening is even more important in showing the proximity to tipping. After extensive normal-form calibration studies, we check two geological time series from palaeo-climate tipping events for softening of the underlying well. For the ending of the last ice age, where we find no convincing linear precursor, we identify a statistically significant nonlinear softening towards increasing temperature.


2010 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. K. H. Salje ◽  
J. Koppensteiner ◽  
W. Schranz ◽  
E. Fritsch

AbstractThe collapse of minerals and mineral assemblies under external stress is modelled using a master curve where the stress failure is related to the relative, effective elastic moduli which are in turn related to the porosity of the sample. While a universal description is known not to be possible, we argue that for most porous materials such as shales, silica, cement phases, hydroxyapatite, zircon and also carbonates in corals and agglomerates we can estimate the critical porosity ϕc at which small stresses will lead to the collapse of the sample. For several samples we find ϕc ~0.5 with an almost linear decay of the bulk moduli with porosity at ϕc <0.5. The second scenario involves the persistence of elasticity for porosities until almost 1 whereby the bulk modulus decreases following a power law κ ~ (1–ϕm, m>2, between ϕ = 0.5 and ϕ = 1.


2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (03) ◽  
pp. 1640005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Safayat-Al Imam ◽  
Nasheen Kalam ◽  
Sharmin Abdullah

This paper deals with the performance of both gate and drain control coefficients to analyze the behavior of carbon nanotube field effect transistors (CNTFETs) under ballistic conditions and based on the change of different parameter value, such as oxide thickness of structure and temperature variation. A thorough study of both gate and drain control coefficient effects on the performance of CNTFETs has been conducted under different temperature and oxide layers and the output of the device has been analyzed through different parameters. Higher values of control coefficient help to attain larger transconductance by the increasing temperatures. For a fixed value of control coefficient, 4[Formula: see text]nm thickness of oxide has a transconductance of [Formula: see text] 4.5 [Formula: see text] 10[Formula: see text] S/m. Smaller oxide layer thickness has higher slope of increment in transconductance value. ON-state current to leakage current ratio shows a steady state response toward increment of gate control coefficient. Also, increment of oxide thickness has an adverse effect on current ratio, while a linear decay of current ratio is observed with the increased value of drain controlled one. Drain-induced battery lowering (DIBL) effect decreases with the value of gate control one and increases with the drain control coefficient. In this way, the optimum value for both the control coefficients has to be considered in order to perform well.


The possibility of travelling reaction-diffusion waves developing in the isothermal chemical system governed by the cubic autocatalytic reaction A + 2B → 3B (rate k 3 ab 2 ) coupled with either the linear decay step B → C (rate k 2 b ) or the quadratic decay step B + B → C (rate k 4 b 2 ) is examined. Two simple solutions are obtained,namely the well-stirred analogue of the spatially inhomogeneous problem and the solution for small input of the autocatalyst B. Both of these suggest that, for the quadratic decay case, a wave will develop only if the non-dimensional parameter k ═ k 4 / k 3 a 0 < 1 (where a 0 is the initial concentration of the reactant A), with there being no restriction on the initial input of the autocatalyst B. However, for the linear decay case the initiation of a travelling wave depends on the parameter v ═ k 2 / k 3 a 2 0 and that, in addition, there is an input threshold on B before the formation of a wave will occur. The equations governing the fully developed travelling waves are then considered and it is shown that for the quadratic decay case the situation is similar to previous work in quadratic autocatalysis with linear decay, with a necessary condition for the existence of a travelling-wave solution being that K < 1. However, the case of linear decay is quite different, with a necessary condition for the existence of a travelling wave solution now found to be v < 1/4 Numerical solutions of the equations governing this case reveal further that a solution exists only for v < v c , with v c ≈ 0.0465, and that there are two branches of solution for 0 < v < v c . The behaviour of these lower branch solutions as v → 0 is discussed. The initial-value problem is then considered. For the quadratic decay case it is shown that the uniform state a ═ a 0 , b ═ 0 is globally asymptotically stable (i. e. a → a 0 , b → 0 uniformly for large times) for all k > 1. For the linear decay case it is shown that the development of a travelling wave requires β 0 > v (where β 0 is a measure of the initial input of B) for v < v c . These theoretical results are then complemented by numerical solutions of the initial-value problem for both cases, which confirm the various predictions of the theory. The behaviour of the solution of the equations governing the travelling waves is then discussed in the limits K → 0, v → 0 and K → 1. In the first case the solution approaches the solution for K ═ 0 (or v =0) on the length scale of the reaction-diffusion front, with there being a long tail region of length scale O ( K -1 ) (or O ( v -1 )) in which the autocatalyst B decays to zero. In the latter case we find that the concentration of reactant A is 1 + O [(1 - k )] and autocatalyst B is O[(1 - k 2 ] with the thickness of the reaction-diffusion front becoming large, of thickness O [(1- k ) -3/2 ].


1988 ◽  
Vol 28 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 313-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Avinash ◽  
W. G. F. Core ◽  
T. Hellsten

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