scholarly journals Nonlinear softening as a predictive precursor to climate tipping

2012 ◽  
Vol 370 (1962) ◽  
pp. 1205-1227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Sieber ◽  
J. Michael T. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Basin Of Attraction ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Geological Time ◽  
Nonlinear Features ◽  
Last Ice Age ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
Linear Decay

Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes increasingly precarious in the presence of noisy disturbances. We argue that one needs to extract information about the nonlinear features (a ‘softening’) of the underlying potential from the time series to judge the probability and timing of tipping. This analysis is the logical next step if one has detected a decrease of the linear decay rate. If there is no discernible trend in the linear analysis, nonlinear softening is even more important in showing the proximity to tipping. After extensive normal-form calibration studies, we check two geological time series from palaeo-climate tipping events for softening of the underlying well. For the ending of the last ice age, where we find no convincing linear precursor, we identify a statistically significant nonlinear softening towards increasing temperature.

scholarly journals Teleconnection between the climates of the Polar Regions during the last ice age

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Yang ◽  
Jose A. Rial
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Phase Synchronization ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Mutual Synchronization ◽  
Polar Climate ◽  
Nonlinear Coupled Oscillators ◽  
Last Ice Age ◽  
Climate Time Series

Abstract. Understanding the well-documented differences between Greenland and Antarctica's paleoclimate proxy time series in terms of the dynamic processes connecting the two Polar Regions would help develop a quantitative theory of polar climate teleconnections. Multiple conceptual models have been proposed to explain the polar climate time series relationship, and to extend Greenland climate records based on the much longer records from Antarctica. Here we compare the most relevant conceptual models proposed to characterize inter-polar teleconnections associated with these time series. We show that the polar synchronization model, which proposes that the climates of the Polar Regions were phase synchronized over most of the last ice age, shows better overall skill across the range of parameter space under test and provides a physical explanation of the polar teleconnection as the mutual synchronization of two nonlinear, coupled oscillators. Phase synchronization results when two or more nonlinear oscillators couple (in this case the two polar climates coupled through the ocean and atmosphere) and therein adjust their (initially different) natural rhythms to a common frequency and constant relative phase. Detailed analyses presented here show that the polar synchronization is a reliable framework to support further studies of polar climate teleconnections.

scholarly journals Arctic Ocean stratification set by sea level and freshwater inputs since the last ice age

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse R. Farmer ◽  
Daniel M. Sigman ◽  
Julie Granger ◽  
Ona M. Underwood ◽  
François Fripiat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Surface Waters ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
Central Arctic Ocean ◽  
Phytoplankton Productivity ◽  
Nitrate Consumption ◽  
Western Arctic ◽  
Last Ice Age

AbstractSalinity-driven density stratification of the upper Arctic Ocean isolates sea-ice cover and cold, nutrient-poor surface waters from underlying warmer, nutrient-rich waters. Recently, stratification has strengthened in the western Arctic but has weakened in the eastern Arctic; it is unknown if these trends will continue. Here we present foraminifera-bound nitrogen isotopes from Arctic Ocean sediments since 35,000 years ago to reconstruct past changes in nutrient sources and the degree of nutrient consumption in surface waters, the latter reflecting stratification. During the last ice age and early deglaciation, the Arctic was dominated by Atlantic-sourced nitrate and incomplete nitrate consumption, indicating weaker stratification. Starting at 11,000 years ago in the western Arctic, there is a clear isotopic signal of Pacific-sourced nitrate and complete nitrate consumption associated with the flooding of the Bering Strait. These changes reveal that the strong stratification of the western Arctic relies on low-salinity inflow through the Bering Strait. In the central Arctic, nitrate consumption was complete during the early Holocene, then declined after 5,000 years ago as summer insolation decreased. This sequence suggests that precipitation and riverine freshwater fluxes control the stratification of the central Arctic Ocean. Based on these findings, ongoing warming will cause strong stratification to expand into the central Arctic, slowing the nutrient supply to surface waters and thus limiting future phytoplankton productivity.

scholarly journals Latin America in Global History: An Historiographic Overview

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (60) ◽  
pp. 253-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Olstein
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
New World ◽  
World History ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Global History ◽  
The World ◽  
Last Ice Age ◽  
Great Divergence

Abstract World history can be arranged into three major regional divergences: the 'Greatest Divergence' starting at the end of the last Ice Age (ca. 15,000 years ago) and isolating the Old and the New Worlds from one another till 1500; the 'Great Divergence' bifurcating the paths of Europe and Afro-Asia since 1500; and the 'American Divergence' which divided the fortunes of New World societies from 1500 onwards. Accordingly, all world regions have confronted two divergences: one disassociating the fates of the Old and New Worlds, and the other within either the Old or the New World. Latin America is in the uneasy position that in both divergences it ended up on the 'losing side.' As a result, a contentious historiography of Latin America evolved from the very moment that it was incorporated into the wider world. Three basic attitudes toward the place of Latin America in global history have since emerged and developed: admiration for the major impact that the emergence on Latin America on the world scene imprinted on global history; hostility and disdain over Latin America since it entered the world scene; direct rejection of and head on confrontation in reaction the former. This paper examines each of these three attitudes in five periods: the 'long sixteenth century' (1492-1650); the 'age of crisis' (1650-1780); 'the long nineteenth century' (1780-1914); 'the short twentieth century' (1914-1991); and 'contemporary globalization' (1991 onwards).

Nationalization of the American States

1978 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen A. Kemp
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Relative Variation ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
American States ◽  
Policy Variation

This paper describes a test of the nationalization thesis that the American states have become similar in their policies and that variance in states' policies has decreased to the point where no significant policy differences remain. A time series analysis of states' expenditures in four policy areas reveals that relative variation remains unchanged and that absolute variation increases in all policy areas during the 1958-1974 period. In addi tion, a time series analysis of the effect of region on policy variation provides no support for the argument that the process of diffusion results in a stable state of policy uniformity across time.

Evidence for a large surface ablation zone in central East Antarctica during the last Ice Age

2003 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin J. Siegert ◽  
Richard C. A. Hindmarsh ◽  
Gordon S. Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Ice Core ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Internal Layers ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Glacial Ice ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Ice Flows ◽  
Last Ice Age ◽  
The Hill

AbstractInternal isochronous ice sheet layers, recorded by airborne ice-penetrating radar, were measured along an ice flowline across a large (>1 km high) subglacial hill in the foreground of the Transantarctic Mountains. The layers, dated through an existing stratigraphic link with the Vostok ice core, converge with the ice surface as ice flows over the hill without noticeable change to their separation with each other or the ice base. A two-dimensional ice flow model that calculates isochrons and particle flowpaths and accounts for ice flow over the hill under steady-state conditions requires net ablation (via sublimation) over the stoss face for the predicted isochrons to match the measured internal layers. Satellite remote sensing data show no sign of exposed ancient ice at this site, however. Given the lack of exposed glacial ice, surface balance conditions must have changed recently from the net ablation that is predicted at this site for the last 85,000 years to accumulation.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Lead in Antarctic Ice during the Last Climatic Cycle

1988 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 5-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claude F. Boutron ◽  
Clair C. Patterson ◽  
Claude Lorius ◽  
V.N. Petrov ◽  
N.I. Barkov
Keyword(s):  
Isotope Dilution Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Crustal Rock ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Toxic Heavy Metal ◽  
Mass Spectrometry Technique ◽  
Spectrometry Technique ◽  
Last Ice Age ◽  
The Antarctic

Concentrations of lead (Pb) have been measured by the ultra-clean isotope dilution mass spectrometry technique in various sections of the Antarctic Dome C and Vostok deep ice cores, whose ages range from 3.85 to 155 ka B.P., in order to assess the natural, pre-human, sources of this toxic heavy metal in the global troposphere. Pb concentrations were very low, as low as about 0.3 pg Pb/g during the Holocene and probably during the last interglacial and part of the last ice age. On the other hand, they were quite high, up to about 40 pg Pb/g, during the Last Glacial Maximum and at the end of the penultimate ice age. Wind-blown dust from crustal rock and soil appears to be the main natural source of Pb in the global troposphere. Pb contribution from volcanoes is significant during periods of low Pb only. Contribution from the oceans is insignificant.

scholarly journals A simple conceptual model to interpret the 100 000 years dynamics of paleo-climate records

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 585-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. S. Quiroga Lombard ◽  
P. Balenzuela ◽  
H. Braun ◽  
D. R. Chialvo
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Power Spectra ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
De Vries ◽  
Last Ice Age ◽  
Paleoclimate Records ◽  
Dominant Frequencies

Abstract. Spectral analyses performed on records of cosmogenic nuclides reveal a group of dominant spectral components during the Holocene period. Only a few of them are related to known solar cycles, i.e., the De Vries/Suess, Gleissberg and Hallstatt cycles. The origin of the others remains uncertain. On the other hand, time series of North Atlantic atmospheric/sea surface temperatures during the last ice age display the existence of repeated large-scale warming events, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, spaced around multiples of 1470 years. The De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles with periods close to 1470/7 (~210) and 1470/17 (~86.5) years have been proposed to explain these observations. In this work we found that a conceptual bistable model forced with the De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles plus noise displays a group of dominant frequencies similar to those obtained in the Fourier spectra from paleo-climate during the Holocene. Moreover, we show that simply changing the noise amplitude in the model we obtain similar power spectra to those corresponding to GISP2 δ18O (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2) during the last ice age. These results give a general dynamical framework which allows us to interpret the main characteristic of paleoclimate records from the last 100 000 years.

scholarly journals Paleontology of the Bears Ears National Monument: history of exploration and designation of the monument

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Uglesich ◽  
Robert J Gay ◽  
M. Allison Stegner ◽  
Adam K Huttenlocker ◽  
Randall B Irmis
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Record ◽  
Landscape Scale ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Bureau Of Land Management ◽  
National Monument ◽  
Resource Protection ◽  
History Of ◽  
Last Ice Age ◽  
Dry Climates ◽  
Cretaceous Period

Bears Ears National Monument (BENM) is a new, landscape-scale national monument jointly administered by the Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service in southeastern Utah as part of the National Conservation Lands system. As initially designated, BENM encompasses 1.3 million acres of land with exceptionally fossiliferous rock units. These units comprise a semi-continuous depositional record from the Pennsylvanian Period through the middle of the Cretaceous Period. Additional Quaternary and Holocene deposits are known from unconsolidated river gravels and cave deposits. The fossil record from BENM provides unique insights into several important paleontological periods of time, including the Pennsylvanian-Permian transition from fully aquatic to more fully terrestrial tetrapods; the rise of the dinosaurs following the Triassic-Jurassic extinction; and the response of ecosystems in dry climates to sudden temperature increases at the end of the last ice age and across the Holocene. While the paleontological resources of BENM are extensive, they have historically been under-studied. Here we summarize prior paleontological work in BENM and review the data used to support paleontological resource protection in the 2016 BENM proclamation.

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