Forecast of omicron wave time evolution

Adopting an early doubling time of three days for the rate of new infections with the omicron mutant the temporal evolution of the omicron wave in different countries is predicted. The predictions are based on the susceptible-infectious-recovered/removed (SIR) epidemic compartment model with a constant stationary ratio k=mu(t)/a(t) between the infection (a(t)) and recovery (mu(t)) rate. The fixed early doubling time then uniquely relates the initial infection rate a0 to the ratio k, which therefore determines the full temporal evolution of the omicron waves. For each country three scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, intermediate) are considered and the resulting pandemic parameters are calculated. These include the total number of infected persons, the maximum rate of new infections, the peak time and the maximum 7-day incidence per 100000 persons. Among the considered European countries Denmark has the smallest omicron peak time and the recently observed saturation of the 7-day incidence value at 2478 is in excellent agreement with the prediction in the optimistic scenario. For Germany we predict peak times of the omicron wave ranging from 32 to 38 and 45 days after the start of the omicron wave in the optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic scenario, respectively, with corresponding maximum SDI values of 7090, 13263 and 28911, respectively. Adopting Jan 1st, 2022 as the starting date our predictions implies that the maximum of the omicron wave is reached between Feb 1 and Feb 15, 2022. Rather similar values are predicted for Switzerland. Due to an order of magnitude smaller omicron hospitalization rate, due to the high percentage of vaccinated and boostered population, the German health system can cope with maximum omicron SDI value of 2800 which is about a factor 2.5 smaller than the maximum omicron SDI value 7090 in the optimistic case. By either reducing the duration of intensive care during this period of maximum, and/or by making use of the nonuniform spread of the omicron wave across Germany, it seems that the German health system can barely cope with the omicron wave avoiding triage decisions. The reduced omicron hospitalization rate also causes significantly smaller mortality rates compared to the earlier mutants in Germany. In the optimistic scenario one obtains for the total number of fatalities 7445 and for the maximum death rate 418 per day which are about one order of magnitude smaller than the beta fatality rate and total number.

Long-term benefits of targeted micronutrition with the holoBLG lozenge in house dust mite allergic patients

Summary Purpose The long-term effects of targeted micronutrition with the holoBLG lozenge in house dust mite (HDM) allergic rhinoconjunctivitis (ARC) patients were evaluated at a follow-up visit in an allergen exposure chamber (AEC). Methods Patients who were supplemented for 3‑months with the holoBLG lozenge in a previous study with two controlled HDM-AEC challenges [visits: V1, V3] were recruited for a third AEC challenge (V5) 7–8 months after cessation of supplementation. Symptoms (nose, conjunctival, bronchial, others), well-being, and lung function parameters were recorded exactly as in the previous study. Primary endpoint was change in median Total Nasal Symptom Score (TNSS) at V5 compared to V1. Secondary endpoints included e.g. change in median Total Symptom Score (TSS) and the exploratory analysis of temporal evolution of symptom scores using linear mixed effects models. Results Of the 32 patients included in the original study, 27 could be recruited for the follow-up visit with a third AEC challenge. An improvement of 20% (p = 0.15) in the primary endpoint TNSS [V1: 2.5 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1–4), V5: 2.0 (IQR: 1–3)] was observed; 40% (p = 0.04) improvement was seen for the TSS [V1: 5.0 (IQR: 3–9), V5: 3.0 (IQR: 2–5.5)]. Analysis of temporal evolution of all symptom scores, and the personal well-being revealed sustained, clinically meaningful improvement at V5 compared to V1. No relevant lung function parameter differences were observed. Conclusions Sustained long-term reduction of TNSS (primary endpoint) and sustained long-term improvement of secondary endpoints (temporal evolution of all symptom scores and well-being) were demonstrated 7–8 months after cessation of holoBLG supplementation, indicative of a long-lasting nature of immune resilience induced by holoBLG. Trial registration The study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04872868).

IMPACT OF THE PORT STRUCTURE IN THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF THE SEDIMENTARY AND BATHYMETRIC CHARACTERISTICS OF A MOROCCAN ATLANTIC BAY, STUDY CASE BAY OF SAFI CITY

This study focuses on morpho-sedimentary changes in the bay of Safi (Atlantic coast of Morocco), due to a progressive extension of the port. For this purpose, several bathymetric and sedimentary surveys carried out by the Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service of the Navy (SHOM) in 1892, 1906 and 1940 respectively, coupled with a bathymetric and sedimentary measurement mission in 2009, were analyzed to understand the impact of the port developments on the bottom of Safi Bay. This analysis consists of making maps of the evolution of (i) sedimentary facies (of different dates 1892, 1906, 1940 and 2009) and (ii) the shallow seabed of the three periods 1892–1906, 1906–1940 and 1940–2009. The sedimentary facies maps show that the facies appear unstable and evolve intermittently in response to environmental changes in the bay (port construction and expansion). In addition, the overlay of the bathymetric maps indicates that the bay has undergone changes (lowering, stability, and raising) controlled by hydrodynamic conditions before, during, and even after harbor construction. Analysis of the data showed that the expansion of the port often reshaped the morphology of the bay's seabed. The consequences of these evolutions are the appearance of the fattening or the erosion of the bank and the filling of small depressions of sediments. This evolution is reflected in the modification of the funds near the port and the beach of Safi.

Vertical Profiling of Fresh Biomass Burning Aerosol Optical Properties over the Greek Urban City of Ioannina, during the PANACEA Winter Campaign

Vertical profiling of aerosol particles was performed during the PANhellenic infrastructure for Atmospheric Composition and climatE chAnge (PANACEA) winter campaign (10 January 2020–7 February 2020) over the city of Ioannina, Greece (39.65° N, 20.85° E, 500 m a.s.l.). The middle-sized city of Ioannina suffers from wintertime air pollution episodes due to biomass burning (BB) domestic heating activities. The lidar technique was applied during the PANACEA winter campaign on Ioannina city, to fill the gap of knowledge of the spatio-temporal evolution of the vertical mixing of the particles occurring during these winter-time air pollution episodes. During this campaign the mobile single-wavelength (532 nm) depolarization Aerosol lIdAr System (AIAS) was used to measure the spatio-temporal evolution of the aerosols’ vertical profiles within the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and the lower free troposphere (LFT; up to 4 km height a.s.l.). AIAS performed almost continuous lidar measurements from morning to late evening hours (typically from 07:00 to 19:00 UTC), under cloud-free conditions, to provide the vertical profiles of the aerosol backscatter coefficient (baer) and the particle linear depolarization ratio (PLDR), both at 532 nm. In this study we emphasized on the vertical profiling of very fresh (~hours) biomass burning (BB) particles originating from local domestic heating activities in the area. In total, 33 out of 34 aerosol layers in the lower free troposphere were characterized as fresh biomass burning ones of local origin, showing a mean particle linear depolarization value of 0.04 ± 0.02 with a range of 0.01 to 0.09 (532 nm) in a height region 1.21–2.23 km a.s.l. To corroborate our findings, we used in situ data, particulate matter (PM) concentrations (PM2.5) from a particulate sensor located close to our station, and the total black carbon (BC) concentrations along with the respective contribution of the fossil fuel (BCff) and biomass/wood burning (BCwb) from the Aethalometer. The PM2.5 mass concentrations ranged from 5.6 to 175.7 μg/m3, while the wood burning emissions from residential heating were increasing during the evening hours, with decreasing temperatures. The BCwb concentrations ranged from 0.5 to 17.5 μg/m3, with an extremely high mean contribution of BCwb equal to 85.4%, which in some cases during night-time reached up to 100% during the studied period.

Intra-osseous migration in calcific rotator cuff tendinopathy- A novel depiction of temporal evolution on multi-modality imaging

We present a case of calcific tendinopathy of the rotator cuff with intraosseous migration of the calcification, treated with ultrasound-guided bursal steroid injection and followed up with multiple imaging modalities for a year following the initial presentation. The radiographs, ultrasound, CT, nuclear scintigraphy, and MRI images demonstrate the temporal evolution of the intraosseous migrated calcium and show how this pathology, in its acute phase, can mimic other pathologies like osteoid osteoma. The follow-up imaging also illustrated how the migrated intraosseous focus of calcification took a much longer time to heal compared to its intratendinous counterpart, possibly leading to the protracted course of recovery. This report also highlights a previously undescribed pattern of healing of the intraosseous migrated calcium on multiple imaging modalities.