Leaf area index retrieval using gap fractions obtained from high resolution satellite data: Comparisons of approaches, scales and atmospheric effects

Seasonal forecasts of crop yield are important components for agricultural policy decisions and farmer planning. A wide range of input data are often needed to forecast crop yield in a region where sophisticated approaches such as machine learning and process-based models are used. This requires considerable effort for data preparation in addition to identifying data sources. Here, we propose a simpler approach called the Analogy Based Crop-yield (ABC) forecast scheme to make timely and accurate prediction of regional crop yield using a minimum set of inputs. In the ABC method, a growing season from a prior long-term period, e.g., 10 years, is first identified as analogous to the current season by the use of a similarity index based on the time series leaf area index (LAI) patterns. Crop yield in the given growing season is then forecasted using the weighted yield average reported in the analogous seasons for the area of interest. The ABC approach was used to predict corn and soybean yields in the Midwestern U.S. at the county level for the period of 2017–2019. The MOD15A2H, which is a satellite data product for LAI, was used to compile inputs. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of crop yield forecasts was <10% for corn and soybean in each growing season when the time series of LAI from the day of year 89 to 209 was used as inputs to the ABC approach. The prediction error for the ABC approach was comparable to results from a deep neural network model that relied on soil and weather data as well as satellite data in a previous study. These results indicate that the ABC approach allowed for crop yield forecast with a lead-time of at least two months before harvest. In particular, the ABC scheme would be useful for regions where crop yield forecasts are limited by availability of reliable environmental data.

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Wheat Leaf Area Index Prediction Using Data Fusion Based on High-Resolution Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Imagery

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1169494/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Shuang Wu ◽

Lei Deng ◽

Lijie Guo ◽

Yanjie Wu

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Data Fusion ◽

Leaf Area Index ◽

Leaf Area ◽

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle ◽

Prediction Accuracy ◽

Sensor Data ◽

Support Vector ◽

Area Index ◽

Aerial Vehicle

Abstract Background: Leaf Area Index (LAI) is half of the amount of leaf area per unit horizontal ground surface area. Consequently, accurate vegetation extraction in remote sensing imagery is critical for LAI estimation. However, most studies do not fully exploit the advantages of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) imagery with high spatial resolution, such as not removing the background (soil and shadow, etc.). Furthermore, the advancement of multi-sensor synchronous observation and integration technology allows for the simultaneous collection of canopy spectral, structural, and thermal data, making it possible for data fusion.Methods: To investigate the potential of high-resolution UAV imagery combined with multi-sensor data fusion in LAI estimation. High-resolution UAV imagery was obtained with a multi-sensor integrated MicaSense Altum camera to extract the wheat canopy's spectral, structural, and thermal features. After removing the soil background, all features were fused, and LAI was estimated using Random Forest and Support Vector Machine Regression.Result: The results show that: (1) the soil background reduced the accuracy of the LAI prediction, and soil background could be effectively removed by taking advantage of high-resolution UAV imagery. After removing the soil background, the LAI prediction accuracy improved significantly, R2 raised by about 0.27, and RMSE fell by about 0.476. (2) The fusion of multi-sensor synchronous observation data improved LAI prediction accuracy and achieved the best accuracy (R2 = 0.815 and RMSE = 1.023). (3) When compared to other variables, 23 CHM, NRCT, NDRE, and BLUE are crucial for LAI estimation. Even the simple Multiple Linear Regression model could achieve high prediction accuracy (R2 = 0.679 and RMSE = 1.231), providing inspiration for rapid and efficient LAI prediction.Conclusions: The method of this study can be transferred to other sites with more extensive areas or similar agriculture structures, which will facilitate agricultural production and management.

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