scholarly journals Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: Overnight indexed swaps and the term structure

2020 ◽  
Vol 119 ◽  
pp. 105915
Author(s):  
Simon P. Lloyd
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate

scholarly journals The term structure of interest rates and inflation forecast targeting

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 162-179
Author(s):  
Eric Schaling ◽  
Willem Verhagen ◽  
Sylvester Eiffinger
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Term Spread ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Output Persistence

This paper examines the implications of the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates for the implementation of inflation targeting. We show that the responsiveness of the central bank’s instrument to the underlying state of the economy is increasing in the duration of the long-term bond.  On the other hand, an increase in duration will make long-term inflationary expectations - and therefore also the long-term nominal interest rate - less responsive to the state of the economy. The extent to which the central bank is concerned with output stabilisation will exert a moderating influence on the central bank’s response to leading indicators of future inflation. However, the effect of an increase in this parameter on the long-term nominal interest rate turns out to be ambiguous. Next, we show that both the sensitivity of the nominal term spread to economic fundamentals and the extent to which the spread predicts future output, are increasing in the duration of the long bond and the degree of structural output persistence. However, if the central bank becomes relatively less concerned about inflation stabilisation the term spread will be less successful in predicting real economic activity.

scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

Revolving cards: A financial analysis of the credit repayment and legal implications

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvador Cruz Rambaud ◽  
Salvador Cruz Vargas
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Card ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Excessive Amount ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Legal Implications ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Very High

The framework of this paper is credit card holding by users and consumers, more specifically, the so-called revolving cards. In most cases, the true interest rate applied to a credit is much higher than its nominal interest rate. Usually, this is due to the existence of some fees to be paid by the holder, and to the process of splitting the periods of interest. However, the contracted annual interest rate of revolving cards is very high which, together with the peculiar amortization system, gives rise to an excessive amount of interests. The objective of this paper is to describe and analyze, from a legal and financial point of view, the main characteristics of the credit repayment in revolving cards. We conclude that the complete amortization of the principal needs a long duration and the payment of a high amount of interests.

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