Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty

2022 ◽  
Vol 306 ◽  
pp. 114453
Author(s):  
Jennifer F. Moore ◽  
Julien Martin ◽  
Hardin Waddle ◽  
Evan H. Campbell Grant ◽  
Jill Fleming ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Population Status ◽  
Large Uncertainty ◽  
The Face ◽  
Status Assessment

scholarly journals Probabilistic Performance Assessment vs. the Safety Case Approach

MRS Advances ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (17-18) ◽  
pp. 987-992
Author(s):  
François Diaz-Maurin ◽  
Rodney C. Ewing
Keyword(s):  
Performance Assessment ◽  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
International Community ◽  
Regulatory Framework ◽  
Geologic Repository ◽  
Large Uncertainty ◽  
Safety Case ◽  
The Face ◽  
The U.S

ABSTRACTThe “safety case” approach has been developed to address the issue of evaluating the performance of a geologic repository in the face of the large uncertainty that results for evaluations that extend over hundreds of thousands of years. This paper reviews the concept of the safety case as it has been defined by the international community. We contrast the safety case approach with that presently used in the U.S. repository program. Especially, we focus on the role of uncertainty quantification. There are inconsistencies between the initial proposal to dealing with uncertainties in a safety case and current U.S. practice. The paper seeks to better define the safety case concept so that it can be usefully applied to the regulatory framework of the U.S. repository program.

Rediscovery of the mistletoeBakerella hoyifoliasubsp.bojeri(Loranthaceae) on Reunion Island: population status assessment for its conservation

2017 ◽  
Vol 164 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Albert ◽  
A. Rhumeur ◽  
J. L. Rivière ◽  
A. Chauvrat ◽  
S. Sauroy-Toucouère ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Island Population ◽  
Reunion Island ◽  
Population Status ◽  
Réunion Island ◽  
Status Assessment

A simulation study to evaluate impacts of uncertainty on the assessment of American lobster fishery in the Gulf of Maine

2002 ◽  
Vol 59 (8) ◽  
pp. 1394-1403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Chen ◽  
Carl Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Level ◽  
Gulf Of Maine ◽  
Homarus Americanus ◽  
American Lobster ◽  
Large Uncertainty ◽  
Decision Confidence ◽  
The Status ◽  
Status Assessment ◽  
Lobster Fishery ◽  
Risk Managers

The status of the American lobster (Homarus americanus) in the Gulf of Maine (GOM) has been assessed for the last two decades by comparing an estimated current fishing mortality rate for females (Fcur) with a deterministically estimated biological reference point, F10%. The most recent assessment determined that GOM had exceeded the F10% for every year calculated, although in this time landings and abundance have doubled. The current policy does not consider uncertainty in the assessment. This study evaluates the impacts of uncertainty in F10% and Fcur on the status assessment of lobster fishery. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we found that the status assessment would be influenced by uncertainties in estimating F10% and Fcur, and by the choice of decision confidence level reflecting the level of risk managers would like to take. A large uncertainty in Fcur and F10% and a high decision confidence level reduce the likelihood of defining the stock as overfished, and vice versa. Our results suggest that the probability of lobster overfishing may be less than previously thought, and that uncertainty in Fcur and F10% should be quantified and considered in determining the status of the GOM lobster stock.

Population status, distribution, and movements of woodland caribou in west central Alberta

1988 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 817-826 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Janet Edmonds
Keyword(s):  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Population Status ◽  
Woodland Caribou ◽  
Winter Range ◽  
West Central ◽  
The Face ◽  
Two Populations ◽  
Maximum Estimate

Twenty-four woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in the mountains and foothills of west central Alberta were radio collared to obtain information on seasonal movements, location and extent of seasonal ranges, rutting and calving areas, and population status. The study was conducted from December 1979 to June 1984 (fall composition surveys continued to 1986). Two populations of woodland caribou resided in the foothills winter range: a migratory mountain variety that moved west to the mountains in spring and returned in fall, and a more sedentary woodland variety that remained year round in the forested foothills. Calving and rutting grounds of the two populations were widely separated (minimum of 60 km). The mountain population ranged over a much larger area (11 000 km2) than the woodland population (4000 km2). Woodland caribou were fewer (maximum estimate 50) than the mountain caribou (maximum estimate 200). Population sex–age structure of the mountain caribou population, based on six surveys during the rut (October), averaged 54 males: 100 females: 27 calves (15% calves). Annual minimum adult mortality was 22% for the mountain and woodland populations, and both populations appeared to be declining. Predation, primarily by wolves, was strongly implicated in adult mortality, but causes of calf mortality were not determined. Human-caused mortality was an additional factor. Intensive management is required to ensure the viability of these caribou populations in the face of increasing industrial and recreational development. A short-term wolf reduction program and long-term public education, law enforcement, and habitat protection programs are recommended.

scholarly journals MONITORING PROPOSAL OF THE SPECIES VIOLET CARPENTER BEE XYLOCOPA VIOLACEA IN POLAND

2021 ◽  
Vol 360 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-17
Author(s):  
Maria ALEKSA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Field Research ◽  
Scientific Publication ◽  
Population Status ◽  
Effective Protection ◽  
Carpenter Bee ◽  
Regular Monitoring ◽  
Habitat Stability ◽  
Status Assessment ◽  
National Borders

The main purpose of this scientific publication is to present the suggested methods of monitoring the species violet carpenter bee Xylocopa violacea, which belongs to Hymenoptera of the bee family Apidae. Despite the fact that this insect is only partially protected under Polish national law, there are very few identified localities of these animals in Poland. The main problem related to the uncertainty of the number of the violet carpenter bee Xylocopa violacea is the lack of monitoring within national borders. The proposed method of population status assessment is based on the field research. These studies include the observations of many elements of the population and the environment and on predicting what are the prospects for protecting the violet carpenter bee Xylocopa violacea in Poland. The proposed method of population status assessment is based on the analysis of species presence and abundance and the proposed method of habitat status assessment is based on the analysis of area, food base, type of environment, elements of the habitat, the nature of the surroundings and habitat stability. The proposed methods can be also applied for Xylocopa valga, which can be easily confused with the violet carpenter bee Xylocopa violacea. What is the most important – regular monitoring may contribute to the recognition of other places of occurrence and will enable effective protection of the violet carpenter bee Xylocopa violacea in Poland.

scholarly journals Conservation status assessment and new population record of the threatened Golden Himalayan Spike Phlomoides superba (Royle ex Benth.) Kamelin & Makhm. from Jammu & Kashmir, India

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 10089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amber Srivastava ◽  
Yash Pal Sharma ◽  
O.P. Sharma Vidyarthi ◽  
Sunil Kumar Srivastava
Keyword(s):  
Conservation Status ◽  
Population Status ◽  
In The Wild ◽  
Status Assessment

This paper deals with distribution and conservation status of the Golden Himalayan Spike Phlomoides superba (Royle ex Benth.) Kamelin & Makhm. (syn. Eremostachys superba Royle ex Benth.), an endangered herb in India. A new locality report from Jammu & Kashmir along with population status in previously reported localities of occurrence of this species is also provided. Since the species is reported from a very few localities in India and is facing critical threats in the wild, the addition of a new locality holds significance in terms of its declining population status.

Population Status Assessment and Restoration Modeling of White AbaloneHaliotis sorenseniin California

2016 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 593-599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cynthia A. Catton ◽  
Kevin L. Stierhoff ◽  
Laura Rogers-Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Population Status ◽  
Status Assessment

scholarly journals Applying expert elicitation of viability and persistence to a lynx species status assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan W. Cummings ◽  
Mary Parkin ◽  
Jim Zelenak ◽  
Heather Bell ◽  
Kurt Broderdorp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Species Status ◽  
Status Assessment

scholarly journals MONITORING PROPOSAL OF THE SPECIES Streptocephalus torvicornis (Waga 1842) IN POLAND

2020 ◽  
Vol 356 (55) ◽  
pp. 11-22
Author(s):  
Stanisław CUKIER ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Samples ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Population Status ◽  
Effective Protection ◽  
Regular Monitoring ◽  
Large Branchiopods ◽  
Sources Of Pollution ◽  
Potential Sources ◽  
Status Assessment ◽  
Trees And Shrubs

The paper presents a proposal of methods for monitoring the species Streptocephalus torvicornis, which belongs to large branchiopods. This species occurs in small ephemeral water bodies. Currently, there is only one known locality of S. torvicornis in Poland. Many species of large branchiopods are considered to be in danger of extinction. Their observation in the environment is hampered by the periodic nature of the occurrence of adults. The proposed method of population status assessment is based on the analysis of soil samples in terms of the presence of persistent cysts. The following factors may be used to assess the condition of the habitat: the presence of vegetation indicating the astatic or ephemeral nature of the pools, the level of succession of trees and shrubs, the presence of fish, the presence of potential sources of pollution. The proposed methods are universal and can be applied to the monitoring of other large branchiopods species. Regular monitoring may contribute to the recognition of other places of occurrence and will enable effective protection of the species S. torvicornis in Poland.

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