AbstractWintertime (April–September) area estimates of the Terra Nova Bay polynya (TNBP), Antarctica, based on satellite microwave radiometry are compared with in situ observations of water salinity, temperature and currents at a mooring in Terra Nova Bay in 1996 and 1997. In 1996, polynya area anomalies and associated anomalies in polynya ice production are significantly correlated with salinity anomalies at the mooring. Salinity anomalies lag area and/or ice production anomalies by about 3 days. Up to 50% of the variability in the salinity at the mooring position can be explained by area and/or ice production anomalies in the TNBP for April–September 1996. This value increases to about 70% when considering shorter periods like April–June or May–July, but reduces to 30% later, for example July–September, together with a slight increase in time lag. In 1997, correlations are smaller, less significant and occur at a different time lag. Analysis of ocean currents at the mooring suggests that in 1996 conditions were more favourable than in 1997 for observing the impact of descending plumes of salt-enriched water formed in the polynya during ice formation on the water masses at the mooring depth.
Modelling sea ice formation in the Terra Nova Bay polynya