Role of the eastern boundary-generated waves on the termination of 1997 Indian Ocean Dipole event

The termination of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events is examined in terms of equatorial wave dynamics. In situ and satellite observations combined with an output from a linear wave model are used in this study. Our emphasis is on the 1997 IOD event but our results apply to other positive IOD events as well. We find that the termination of anomalously cold sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern pole of the dipole is associated with a warming tendency caused by the net surface heat fluxes. However, net surface heat fluxes alone cannot explain the total change in the SST. We show that during the peak phase of an IOD event, the weakening of zonal heat advection caused by eastern boundary-generated Rossby waves combined with the reduction of vertical entrainment and diffusion creates favorable conditions for surface heat fluxes to warm the SST in the eastern basin.

Mechanisms of Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in HadGEM3-GC3.1 at Two Different Resolutions

This study broadly characterises and compares the key processes governing internal AMV in two resolutions of HadGEM3-GC3.1: N216ORCA025, corresponding to ~ 60km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, and N96ORCA1 (~ 135km / 1°). Both models simulate AMV with a timescale of 60-80 years, which is related to low frequency ocean and atmosphere circulation changes. In both models, ocean heat transport convergence dominates polar and subpolar AMV, whereas surface heat fluxes associated with cloud changes drive subtropicalAMV. However, details of the ocean circulation changes differ between the models. In N216 subpolar subsurface density anomalies propagate into the subtropics along the western boundary, consistent with the more coherent circulation changes and widespread development of SST anomalies. In contrast, N96 subsurface density anomalies persist in the subpolar latitudes for longer, so circulation anomalies and the development of SST anomalies are more centred there. The drivers of subsurface density anomalies also differ between models. In N216, the NAO is the dominant driver, while upper-ocean salinity-controlled density anomalies that originate from the Arctic appear to be the dominant driver in N96. These results further highlight that internal AMV mechanisms are model dependent and motivate further work to better understand and constrain the differences.

Large-eddy simulations of marine boundary-layer clouds associated with cold air outbreaks during the ACTIVATE campaign– part 1: Case setup and sensitivities to large-scale forcings

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is able to capture key boundary-layer (BL) turbulence and cloud processes. Yet, large-scale forcing and surface turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat are often poorly prescribed for LES simulations. We derive these quantities from measurements and reanalysis obtained for two cold air outbreak (CAO) events during Phase I of the Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) in February-March 2020. We study the two contrasting CAO cases by performing LES and test the sensitivity of BL structure and clouds to large-scale forcings and turbulent heat fluxes. Profiles of atmospheric state and large-scale divergence and surface turbulent heat fluxes obtained from the reanalysis data ERA5 agree reasonablywell with those derived fromACTIVATE field measurements for both cases at the sampling time and location. Therefore, we adopt the time evolving heat fluxes, wind and advective tendencies profiles from ERA5 reanalysis data to drive the LES.We find that large-scale thermodynamic advective tendencies and wind relaxations are important for the LES to capture the evolving observed BL meteorological states characterized by the hourly ERA5 reanalysis data and validated by the observations. We show that the divergence (or vertical velocity) is important in regulating the BL growth driven by surface heat fluxes in LES simulations. The evolution of liquid water path is largely affected by the evolution of surface heat fluxes. The liquid water path simulated in LES agrees reasonably well with the ACTIVATE measurements. This study paves the path to investigate aerosol-cloud-meteorology interactions using LES informed and evaluated by ACTIVATE field measurements.

On the relationship between CYGNSS surface heat fluxes and the lifecycle of low-latitude ocean extratropical cyclones

Surface latent and sensible heat fluxes are important for extratropical cyclone evolution and intensification. Because extratropical cyclone genesis often occurs at low-latitude, CYGNSS surface latent and sensible heat flux retrievals are composited to provide a mean picture of their spatial distribution in low-latitude oceanic extratropical cyclones. CYGNSS heat fluxes are not affected by heavy precipitation and offer observations of storms with frequent revisit times. Consistent with prior results obtained for cyclones in the Gulf Stream region, the fluxes are strongest in the wake of the cold fronts, and weakest to negative in the warm sector in advance of the cold fronts. As cyclone strength increases, or mean precipitable water decreases, the maximum in surface heat fluxes increases while the minimum decreases. This impacts the changes in fluxes during cyclone intensification: the post-cold frontal surface heat flux maximum increases due to the increase in near surface winds. During cyclone dissipation, the fluxes in this sector decrease, due to the decrease in winds and in temperature and humidity contrast. The warm sector minimum decreases throughout the entire cyclone lifetime and is mostly driven by sea-air temperature and humidity contrast changes. However, during cyclone dissipation, the surface heat fluxes increase along the cold front in a narrow band to the east, independently from changes in the cyclone characteristics. This suggests that, during cyclone dissipation, energy transfers from the ocean to the atmosphere are linked to frontal in addition to synoptic-scale processes.

The role of large-scale moistening by adiabatic lifting in the Madden-Julian Oscillation convective onset

The initiation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation over the Indian Ocean is examined through the use of a moisture budget that applies a version of the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation that does not neglect dry adiabatic vertical motions. Examination of this budget in ERA-Interim reveals that horizontal moisture advection and vertical advection by adiabatic lifting govern the moistening of the troposphere for both primary and successive MJO initiation events. For both types of initiation events, horizontal moisture advection peaks prior to the maximum moisture tendency, while adiabatic lifting peaks after the maximum moisture tendency. Once convection initiates, moisture is maintained by anomalous radiative and adiabatic lifting. Adiabatic lifting during successive MJO initiation is attributed to the return of the circumnavigating circulation from a previous MJO event, while in primary events the planetary-scale circulation appears to originate over South America. Examination of the same budget with data from the DYNAMO northern sounding array shows that adiabatic lifting contributes significantly to MJO maintenance, with a contribution that is comparable to that of surface heat fluxes. However, results from the DYNAMO data disagree with those from ERA-Interim over the importance of adiabatic lifting to the moistening of the troposphere prior to the onset of convection. In spite of these differences, the results from the two data sets show that small departures from WTG balance in the form of dry adiabatic motions cannot be neglected when considering MJO convective onset.

Influences of changing sea ice and snow thicknesses on Arctic winter heat fluxes

In the high latitude Arctic, wintertime sea ice and snow insulate the relatively warmer ocean from the colder atmosphere. As the climate warms, wintertime Arctic surface heat fluxes will be dominated by the insulating effect of snow and sea-ice covering the ocean until the sea ice thins enough or sea ice concentrations decrease enough such that direct ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes become more important. Simulated wintertime conductive heat fluxes in the ice-covered Arctic Ocean increase ~7–11 W m−2 by mid-21st century and are due to both thinning sea ice and snow on sea ice. Surface heat flux estimates calculated using grid-cell mean values of sea ice thicknesses underestimate mean heat fluxes by ~16–35 % and overestimate changes in conductive heat fluxes by up to ~36 % in the wintertime Arctic basin even while sea ice concentrations remain above 90 %.

Memory of land surface and subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) initial anomalies over Tibetan Plateau in different land models

This study applies three widely used land models (SSiB, CLM, and Noah-MP) coupled in a regional climate model to quantitatively assess their skill in preserving the imposed ± 5℃ anomalies on the initial land surface and subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) and generating the 2-m air temperature (T2m) anomalies over Tibetan Plateau (TP) during May-August. The memory of the LST/SUBT initial anomalies (surface/soil memory) is defined as the first time when time series of the differences in daily LST/SUBT cross the zero line during the simulation, with the unit of days. The memory of the T2m anomalies (T2m memory) is defined in the same way. The ensemble results indicate that the simulated soil memory generally increases with soil depth, which is consistent with the results based on the observations with statistic methods. And the soil memory is found to change rapidly with depth above ~ 0.6-0.7m and vary gradually below it. The land models have fairly long soil memories, with the regional mean 1.0-m soil memory generally longer than 60 days. However, they have short T2m memory, with the regional means generally below 20 days. This may bring a big challenge to use the LST/SUBT approach on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. Comparison between the three land models shows that CLM and Noah-MP have longer soil memory at the deeper layers ( > ~ 0.05m) while SSiB has longer T2m/surface memories and near-surface (\(\le\)~0.05m) soil memory. As a result, it is difficult to say which land model is optimal for the application of the LST/SUBT approach on the S2S prediction. The T2m/surface/soil memories are various over TP, distinct among the land models, and different between the + 5℃ and − 5℃ experiment, which can be explained by both changes in the surface heat fluxes and variances in the hydrological processes over the plateau.