India is the third largest contributor of greenhouse gases and its transportation emissions account for nearly one-fifth of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, the transportation sector accounts a significant part of other air pollutant emissions that have damaging consequences to human health. Up until now, it was unclear what the greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions consequences of electrifying vehicles in India would be, as replacing traditional vehicles with electrified ones reduces tailpipe emissions, but it will increase the emissions from the power sector when vehicles are charging. We mitigate that gap in the literature by performing a state specific life-cycle assessment of GHGs and criteria air pollutant emissions for representative passenger vehicles (four-wheelers, three-wheelers, two-wheelers and buses) driven in Indian states/union territories. We consider several vehicle technologies (internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)). We find that in most states, four-wheeler BEVs have higher greenhouse gases and criteria air pollutant emissions than other conventional or alternative vehicles and thus electrification of that vehicle class would not lead to emissions reductions. In contrast, in most states, electrified buses and three-wheelers are the best strategy to reduce greenhouse gases, but these are also the worst solution in terms of criteria air pollutant emissions. Electrified two-wheelers have lower criteria air pollutant emissions than gasoline only in five states. The striking conclusion is that unless the Indian grid becomes less polluting, the case for widespread electrification of vehicles for sustainability purposes is simply not there. Moving towards a sustainable, low carbon and low pollution electricity grid is a requirement to make a widespread transportation electrification case for India.
Identification of the Optimal Passenger Car Vehicle Fleet Transition for Mitigating the Cumulative Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050