The CLT under right censorship and reporting delays

2007 ◽  
Vol 137 (3) ◽  
pp. 1035-1042
Author(s):  
Kai Kopperschmidt ◽  
Winfried Stute
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 237802312098032
Author(s):  
Brandon G. Wagner ◽  
Kate H. Choi ◽  
Philip N. Cohen

In the social upheaval arising from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, we do not yet know how union formation, particularly marriage, has been affected. Using administration records—marriage certificates and applications—gathered from settings representing a variety of COVID-19 experiences in the United States, the authors compare counts of recorded marriages in 2020 against those from the same period in 2019. There is a dramatic decrease in year-to-date cumulative marriages in 2020 compared with 2019 in each case. Similar patterns are observed for the Seattle metropolitan area when analyzing the cumulative number of marriage applications, a leading indicator of marriages in the near future. Year-to-date declines in marriage are unlikely to be due solely to closure of government agencies that administer marriage certification or reporting delays. Together, these findings suggest that marriage has declined during the COVID-19 outbreak and may continue to do so, at least in the short term.


Author(s):  
Yong Sul Won ◽  
Jong-Hoon Kim ◽  
Chi Young Ahn ◽  
Hyojung Lee

While the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has been ongoing in Korea since January 2020, there were limited transmissions during the early stages of the outbreak. In the present study, we aimed to provide a statistical characterization of COVID-19 transmissions that led to this small outbreak. We collated the individual data of the first 28 confirmed cases reported from 20 January to 10 February 2020. We estimated key epidemiological parameters such as reporting delay (i.e., time from symptom onset to confirmation), incubation period, and serial interval by fitting probability distributions to the data based on the maximum likelihood estimation. We also estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) using the renewal equation, which allows for the transmissibility to differ between imported and locally transmitted cases. There were 16 imported and 12 locally transmitted cases, and secondary transmissions per case were higher for the imported cases than the locally transmitted cases (nine vs. three cases). The mean reporting delays were estimated to be 6.76 days (95% CI: 4.53, 9.28) and 2.57 days (95% CI: 1.57, 4.23) for imported and locally transmitted cases, respectively. The mean incubation period was estimated to be 5.53 days (95% CI: 3.98, 8.09) and was shorter than the mean serial interval of 6.45 days (95% CI: 4.32, 9.65). The R0 was estimated to be 0.40 (95% CI: 0.16, 0.99), accounting for the local and imported cases. The fewer secondary cases and shorter reporting delays for the locally transmitted cases suggest that contact tracing of imported cases was effective at reducing further transmissions, which helped to keep R0 below one and the overall transmissions small.


2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 3-4
Author(s):  
B Rice ◽  
A Nardone ◽  
N Gill ◽  
V Delpech

The latest HIV data for 2007 has recently been published for the United Kingdom (UK). During the year, an estimated 6,840 (95% confidence intervals 6,600-7,050) persons (adjusted for reporting delays) were newly diagnosed with HIV in the UK. This represents a 12% decline from a peak of new HIV diagnoses reported in 2005 (7,800). Almost all this decline in new HIV diagnoses was in HIV-infected heterosexuals from sub-Saharan Africa who were probably infected in their country of origin.


AIDS ◽  
1993 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 415-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Elizabeth Whitmore-Overton ◽  
Hilary E. Tillett ◽  
Barry G. Evans ◽  
Gwen M. Allardice

2013 ◽  
Vol 23 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
CM Swaan ◽  
A Wong ◽  
A Bonacic Marinovic ◽  
MEE Kretzschmar ◽  
JE van Steenbergen

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. e193175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas B. DeFelice ◽  
Ruthie Birger ◽  
Nathaniel DeFelice ◽  
Alexandra Gagner ◽  
Scott R. Campbell ◽  
...  

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