Portmanteau-type test for unit root with heavy-tailed noise

Author(s):  
Mo Zhou ◽  
Yaolan Ma ◽  
Rongmao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kemal Caglar Gogebakan

Abstract This paper presents extensions to the family of nonparametric fractional variance ratio (FVR) unit root tests of Nielsen (2009. “A Powerful Test of the Autoregressive Unit Root Hypothesis Based on a Tuning Parameter Free Statistic.” Econometric Theory 25: 1515–44) under heavy tailed (infinite variance) innovations. In this regard, we first develop the asymptotic theory for these FVR tests under this setup. We show that the limiting distributions of the tests are free of serial correlation nuisance parameters, but depend on the tail index of the infinite variance process. Then, we compare the finite sample size and power performance of our FVR unit root tests with the well-known parametric ADF test under the impact of the heavy tailed shocks. Simulations demonstrate that under heavy tailed innovations, the nonparametric FVR tests have desirable size and power properties.


2006 ◽  
Vol 43 (02) ◽  
pp. 421-440
Author(s):  
Remigijus Leipus ◽  
Vygantas Paulauskas ◽  
Donatas Surgailis

We discuss the limit behavior of the partial sums process of stationary solutions to the (autoregressive) AR(1) equation X t = a t X t−1 + ε t with random (renewal-reward) coefficient, a t , taking independent, identically distributed values A j ∈ [0,1] on consecutive intervals of a stationary renewal process with heavy-tailed interrenewal distribution, and independent, identically distributed innovations, ε t , belonging to the domain of attraction of an α-stable law (0 < α ≤ 2, α ≠ 1). Under suitable conditions on the tail parameter of the interrenewal distribution and the singularity parameter of the distribution of A j near the unit root a = 1, we show that the partial sums process of X t converges to a λ-stable Lévy process with index λ < α. The paper extends the result of Leipus and Surgailis (2003) from the case of finite-variance X t to that of infinite-variance X t .


2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 733-768
Author(s):  
Iliyan Georgiev ◽  
Paulo M. M. Rodrigues ◽  
A. M. Robert Taylor

2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1208-1227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guodong Li ◽  
Wai Keung Li

This paper considers a local least absolute deviation estimation for unit root processes with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors and derives its asymptotic properties under only finite second-order moment for both errors and innovations. When the innovations are symmetrically distributed, the asymptotic distribution of the estimated unit root is shown to be a functional of a bivariate Brownian motion, and then two unit root tests are derived. The simulation results demonstrate that the tests outperform those based on the Gaussian quasi maximum likelihood estimators with heavy-tailed innovations and those based on the simple least absolute deviation estimators.


2021 ◽  
Vol 81 (319) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Esther Barros Campello ◽  
Carlos Pateiro Rodríguez ◽  
Venancio Salcines Cristal

<p>En este trabajo realizamos un análisis empírico de la evolución del agregado monetario M3 y de sus componentes en Colombia, con el propósito de evaluar las propiedades de estabilidad de cada uno de los activos que forman M3. El análisis se realiza con base en pruebas de raíces unitarias y cointegración. La estacionariedad de las series se estudia mediante las pruebas de ADF-GLS y M-type test, así como con pruebas que consideran la posibilidad de cambio estructural. El estudio prosigue empleando el modelo de vectores de corrección de errores (VECM) y mínimos cuadrados ordinarios totalmente modificados (FMOLS) para estimar la relación de largo plazo entre los componentes de M3 y las variables macroeconómicas determinantes. Los resultados obtenidos nos permiten afirmar que la estabilidad de la demanda de los diferentes componentes de M3 se mantiene, a pesar de distintos shocks que han afectado a la economía colombiana durante estos años.</p><p align="center"><strong> </strong></p><p align="center">THE (IN)STABILITY OF MONEY DEMAND IN COLOMBIA, 2003-2020</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>An empirical analysis is made of the evolution of M3 and its components in Colombia during the period 2003-2020. The purpose is to evaluate the stability of each of the assets that make up the aggregate M3. Unit-root and co-integration tests are used. The stationarity of the series is studied by ADF-GLS and M-type tests, as well as with tests that incorporate the possibility of structural change. In the following we implement two different methodologies to estimate the long-run relationship between M3 components and the macroeconomic determinant variables [Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS)]. The results obtained allow us to affirm that the stability of the demand of the different components of M3 is maintained, in spite of different shocks that have affected the Colombian economy over these years.</p>


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