Can gold hedge against inflation in the UAE? A nonlinear ARDL analysis in the presence of structural breaks

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to explore the role of gold as a hedge against inflation in the case of the United Arab Emirates.Design/methodology/approachThe study utilizes monthly data on the local sharia-compliant spot gold contract traded on the Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange (DGCX) and the corresponding consumer price index series over the period December 2015 to January 2021. The econometric approach employed by the study involves a unit root testing procedure that allows the timing of significant breaks to be estimated. A cointegration analysis is then conducted using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, taking into consideration the presence of structural breaks in addition to short- and long-run asymmetries.FindingsThe results reveal that consumer and gold prices are cointegrated, which implies that investing in gold can hedge against inflation in the long run. No sufficient evidence, nonetheless, is found in support of the ability of gold to serve as a hedge against inflation in the short run.Originality/valueThe findings have several important policy implications for policymakers and investors that are further discussed in the study.

Forecasting and Measuring The Impact on Non-Tax Revenue of Its Principal Determinants in Nepal

This study aims to examine the impact on non-tax revenue of its principal determinants like charges, fines, fees, forfeiture, dividend, principal and interest payment, income received from sales, Royalty, and sales from fixed assets. It also explores the ex-post forecasting of non-tax revenue. It is based on the secondary data taken from various economic surveys of Nepal covering from 1980 to 2019. Descriptive and exploratory research designs are used to examine the impact and forecast the dependent variable. Some statistical and econometric tools like descriptive statistics, unit root testing, ordinary least square, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity test, and dynamic ex-post forecasting approaches. There is a positive impact on non-tax revenue of its principal determinants. The income received from principal and interest payment is found more consistent, whereas the non-tax revenue from sales government goods and services is found more inconsistent than other variables. The value of root means squared error is encountered very small (i.e., 0.7865). So, the gap between actual and forecasted nom-tax revenue is tiny. The results, design, and techniques of this study are not affected by the results and findings of other researchers

ARDL as an Elixir Approach to Cure for Spurious Regression in Nonstationary Time Series

In conventional Econometrics, the unit root and cointegration analysis are the only ways to circumvent the spurious regression which may arise from missing variable (lag values) rather than the nonstationarity process in time series data. We propose the Ghouse equation solution of autoregressive distributed lag mechanism which does not require additional work in unit root testing and bound testing. This advantage makes the proposed methodology more efficient compared to the existing cointegration procedures. The earlier tests weaken their position in comparison to it, as they had numerous linked testing procedures which further increase the size of the test and/or reduce the test power. The simplification of the Ghouse equation does not attain any such type of error, which makes it a more powerful test as compared to widely cited exiting testing methods in econometrics and statistics literature.

Relationship Between Spot Prices and Futures Prices: Evidence From Karachi Stock Exchange

This study investigates the relationship between futures prices and their underlying spot prices of the stocks trading on Pakistan stock market. Data on the monthly closing prices of future contracts and their underlying stocks of 30 companies for the period January 2004 to June 2014 have been taken for analysis. Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dicky Fuller test for unit root testing, Johnson Co-integration test, Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction Model are used. The results confirms significant long term relationship between futures prices and the associated Spot prices in case of 26 companies. The report of Granger causality test indicates that a Bi-directional causality lack to exist in case of each security, VECM shows that Spot prices for current month are effected by previous month prices in case of 7 companies, while futures prices of current month are affected by previous month prices in case of 4 companies. VECM illustrates that the volatility shocks in spot market are less effected by futures market, however the volatility shocks in corresponding futures market were strongly and significantly affected by spot market volatility.

High Persistence and Nonlinear Behavior in Financial Variables: A More Powerful Unit Root Testing in the ESTAR Framework

In this study, we consider the hybrid nonlinear features of the Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive-Fractional Fourier Function (ESTAR-FFF) form unit root test. As is well known, when developing a unit root test for the ESTAR model, linearization is performed by the Taylor approximation, and thereby the nuisance parameter problem is eliminated. Although this linearization process leads to a certain amount of information loss in the unit root testing equation, it also causes the resulting test to be more accessible and consistent. The method that we propose here contributes to the literature in three important ways. First, it reduces the information loss that arises due to the Taylor expansion. Second, the research to date has tended to misinterpret the Fourier function used with the Kapetanios, Shin and Snell (2003) (KSS) unit root test and considers it to capture multiple smooth transition structural breaks. The simulation studies that we carry out in this study clearly show that the Fourier function only restores the Taylor residuals of the ESTAR type function rather than accounting forthe smooth structural break. Third, the new nonlinear unit root test developed in this paper has very strong power in the highly persistent near unit root environment that the financial data exhibit. The application of the Kapetanios Shin Snell- Fractional Fourier (KSS-FF) test to ex-post real interest rates data of 11 OECD countries for country-specific sample periods shows that the new test catches nonlinear stationarity in many more countries than the KSS test itself.

A Simple Integration Order Test: An Alternative to Unit Root Testing

The paper introduces order of integration test (OIT) which serves as a simple alternative to unit root test built generally using auxiliary autoregressive AAR(3) model. The parametric boundary conditions necessary and sufficient for testing the null hypothesis that the non-stationary variable under test is integrated order zero I(0) were estimated via generalized least squares (GLS). The decision on the hypothesis is evaluated using t-statistic. The test procedure was applied to a simulated non-stationary series (y1) of sample size n = 2000 and a known non-stationary time series data (y2) with two unit roots. The results showed that y1 is integrated order one (I(1)) and y2 is I(2). These results were confirmed by Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF); Phillips-Perron (PP); Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS); Elliot, Rothenberg, and Stock Point Optimal (ERS) and Ng and Perron (NP) unit root tests. For logarithm transformed variable, the divergent opinions of other unit root tests in clear-cut solution of the integrated order of such variable makes the new test procedure a better alternative. Nevertheless, the simplicity and aptness of the integration order test give it leverage over conventional methods of unit root test.

The Persistence of Suicides in G20 Countries between 1990 and 2017: an SPSM Approach to Three Generations of Unit Root Tests

Suicides represent an encompassing measure of psychological wellbeing, emotional stability as well as life satisfaction, and they have been recently identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a major global health concern. The G20 countries represent the powerhouse of global economic governance and hence possess the ability to influence the direction of global suicide rates. In applying the sequential panel selection method (SPSM) to three generations of unit root testing procedures, the study investigates the integration properties of suicides in G20 countries between 1990–2017. The results obtained from all three generations of tests provide rigid evidence of persistence within the suicides for most member states of the G20 countries, hence supporting the current strategic agenda pushed by the WHO in reducing suicides to a target rate of 10 percent. In addition, we further propose that such strategies should emanate from within G20 countries and spread globally thereafter.

Impact of Exchange Rate and Oil Prices on Inflation in Pakistan

This study investigates the impact of Exchange Rate (Rupees Vs US $) and oil prices (Pak. Petroleum) and on the inflation rate in Pakistan by applying the Co-Integration technique to the monthly data for all the three series ranging from January 2004 to January 2019. Unit root testing results provide strong statistical evidence for each of the series to be non-stationary at the level and stationary at first difference. Co-integration testing results confirm the existence of Cointegration among the selected time series. Moreover, the empirical results of the regression of inflation on the exchange rate and oil price also lead to conclude that both the series have a strong statistical significant impact on inflation in Pakistan.