scholarly journals Covid-19: Regional policies and local infection risk: Evidence from Italy with a modelling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 100169
Author(s):  
Gabriele Guaitoli ◽  
Roberto Pancrazi
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tetsuo Yasutaka ◽  
Michio Murakami ◽  
Yuichi Iwasaki ◽  
Wataru Naito ◽  
Masaki Onishi ◽  
...  

There is a need to evaluate and minimise the risk of novel coronavirus infections at mass gathering events, such as sports. In particular, to consider how to hold mass gathering events, it is important to clarify how the local infection prevalence, the number of spectators, the capacity proportion, and the implementation of preventions affect the infection risk. In this study, we used an environmental exposure model to analyse the relationship between infection risk and infection prevalence, the number of spectators, and the capacity proportion at mass gathering events in football and baseball games. In addition to assessing risk reduction through the implementation of various preventive measures, we assessed how face-mask-wearing proportion affects infection risk. Furthermore, the model was applied to estimate the number of infectors who entered the stadium and the number of newly infected individuals, and to compare them with actual reported cases. The model analysis revealed an 86%-95% reduction in the infection risk due to the implementation of face-mask wearing and hand washing. Among the individual measures, face-mask wearing was particularly effective, and the infection risk increased as the face-mask-wearing proportion decreased. A linear relationship was observed between infection risk at mass gathering events and the infection prevalence. Furthermore, the number of newly infected individuals was also dependent on the number of spectators and the capacity proportion independent of the infection prevalence, confirming the importance of considering spectator capacity in infection risk management. These results highlight that it is beneficial for organisers to ensure prevention compliance and to mitigate or limit the number of spectators according to the prevalence of local infection. Both the estimated and reported numbers of newly infected individuals after the events were small, below 10 per 3-4 million spectators, despite a small gap between these numbers.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna-Katharina Hildebrandt ◽  
Konstantin Bob ◽  
David Teschner ◽  
Thomas Kemmer ◽  
Jennifer Leclaire ◽  
...  

Timely information on current infection numbers during an epidemic is of crucial importance for decision makers in politics, medicine, and businesses. As information about local infection risk can guide public policy as well as individual behavior, such as the wearing of personal protective equipment or voluntary social distancing, statistical models providing such insights should be transparent and reproducible as well as accurate. Fulfilling these requirements is drastically complicated by the large amounts of data generated during exponential growth of infection numbers, and by the complexity of common inference pipelines. Here, we present CorCast -- a stable and scalable distributed architecture for the reproducible estimation of nowcasts suitable for pandemic scenarios -- and its application to the inference of district-level SARS-CoV-2 infection numbers in Germany.


2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (20) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
SHARON WORCESTER
Keyword(s):  

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
SUSAN LONDON
Keyword(s):  

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