Groundwater flow modelling has been undertaken for an area of 10 500 ha within
the regional unconfined aquifer system of a coastal plain of southern
Australia, in the vicinity of the town of Cooke Plains, to predict the impact
of various land management options (including recharge reduction and discharge
enhancement) on the extent of land salinisation caused by shallow saline
watertables. The model was calibrated against field data collected over 6
years. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of mesh
size, boundary conditions, and aquifer parameters, and particularly rates of
recharge and evaporative discharge, on groundwater levels. These were varied
until the model was shown to be capable of simulating seasonal trends and
regional and local flow patterns. The model was then used to predict the
impact of the management options on groundwater levels.
The results showed that continuing current annual crop–pasture rotations
will result in watertable rises of approximately 0·2 m in 20 years
(significant in this setting), with a further 50 ha of land salinised. A
reduction in the rates of groundwater recharge through the establishment of
high water-use perennial pastures (e.g. lucerne) showed the most promise for
controlling groundwater levels. For example, a reduction in recharge by
90% would result in watertable declines of 0·6–1·0
m within 5–10 years, with the return to productivity of 180 ha of saline
land. Small-scale (say <100 ha) efforts to reduce recharge were found to
have no significant impact on groundwater levels. Enhanced groundwater
discharge such as pumping from a windmill was found to be non-viable due to
the relatively high aquifer transmissivity and specific yield.
The modelling approach has enabled a relatively small area within a regional
aquifer system to be modelled for a finite time (20 years) and has shown that
extension of the boundaries of the model would not have altered the predicted
outcomes. Furthermore, the analysis of sensitivity to cell size in an
undulating landscape where net recharge areas can become net discharge areas
with only small increases in groundwater level is novel, and has helped to
build confidence in the model.
Modelling has demonstrated that dryland salinisation can be controlled by
reducing groundwater recharge over substantial tracts of land, and is not
dependent on recharge reduction over an extensive area upgradient, at least
over the next 20 years.