Dynamic risk analysis of emergency operations in deepwater blowout accidents

2021 ◽  
Vol 240 ◽  
pp. 109928
Author(s):  
Huixing Meng ◽  
Xu An
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Emergency Operations ◽  
Dynamic Risk

scholarly journals Investigating Vapour Cloud Explosion Dynamic Fatality Risk on Offshore Platforms by Using a Grid-Based Framework

Processes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 685
Author(s):  
Usama Muhammad Niazi ◽  
Mohammad Shakir Nasif ◽  
Masdi Muhammad ◽  
Faisal Khan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Offshore Platform ◽  
Offshore Platforms ◽  
Plant Design ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Vapour Cloud ◽  
Grid Based

The reliability of petroleum offshore platform systems affects human safety and well-being; hence, it should be considered in plant design and operation in order to determine its effect on human fatality risk. Methane Vapour Cloud Explosions (VCE) in offshore platforms are known to be one of the fatal potential accidents that can be attributed to failure in plant safety systems. Traditional Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) lacks in providing microlevel risk assessment studies and are unable to update risk with the passage of time. This study proposes a grid-based dynamic risk analysis framework for analysing the effect of VCEs on the risk of human fatality in an offshore platform. Flame Acceleration Simulator (FLACS), which is a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software, is used to model VCEs, taking into account different wind and leakage conditions. To estimate the dynamic risk, Bayesian Inference (BI) is utilised using Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) data. The proposed framework offers the advantage of facilitating microlevel risk analysis by utilising a grid-based approach and providing grid-by-grid risk mapping. Increasing the wind speed (from 3 to 7 m/s) resulted in maximum increase of 21% in risk values. Furthermore, the integration of BI with FLACS in the grid-based framework effectively estimates risk as a function of time and space; the dynamic risk analysis revealed up to 68% increase in human fatality risk recorded from year one to year five.

Morphogenetic Updating Algorithm and its Application in Updating Probabilistic Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (07) ◽  
pp. 1950008
Author(s):  
Jing Tian ◽  
Germano Resconi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Structural Information ◽  
Guangdong Province ◽  
Special Problem ◽  
Internal Source ◽  
The Core ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
New Information ◽  
Cosine Similarity Measure ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

The problem of risk update is one of the core problems of dynamic risk analysis. As for updating widely used probabilistic risk, it’s a kind of special problem of pattern recognition which means to transfer from old pattern to new pattern with new information. Aiming at updating probabilistic risk only with the new observations and without the original observations, this paper proposes the morphogenetic updating algorithm to update the probabilistic risk with only new observations and old risk values by reproducing the morphogenesis of new observations and old risk values based on morphogenetic estimation. The form rules hidden in the risk values and new observations are discovered by internal source in Write operation, and the projection of the input and the cosine similarity measure as the basis for defining the weight of updating are computed in Read operation. Based on Resconi theorem, the input is reproduced by its projection on the context which provides the same mathematical space for updating and stores the structural information hidden in the risk. By applying the algorithm to updating the probabilistic risk of typhoon rainstorms occurred in Guangdong Province, it proves that morphogenetic updating algorithm provides us a method to updating probabilistic risk fast and satisfactorily and it’s a sustainable updating method which can be used for dynamic risk analysis.

Application of dynamic risk analysis in offshore drilling processes

2020 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 104326
Author(s):  
Bijay B ◽  
Priscilla George ◽  
V.R. Renjith ◽  
Anish Job Kurian
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Offshore Drilling ◽  
Dynamic Risk

Dynamic risk analysis of offloading process in floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) platform using Bayesian Network

2016 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. 259-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
ChuiTing Yeo ◽  
Jyoti Bhandari ◽  
Rouzbeh Abbassi ◽  
Vikram Garaniya ◽  
Shuhong Chai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Dynamic Risk

scholarly journals Quantitative Risk Analysis of Offshore Fire and Explosion Based on the Analysis of Human and Organizational Factors

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Fu Wang ◽  
Yu Lian Li ◽  
Biao Zhang ◽  
Pei Na Yan ◽  
Li Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Organizational Factors ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Fire And Explosion ◽  
Human And Organizational Factors ◽  
Explosion Risk

A dynamic risk analysis model of offshore fire and explosion is proposed in this paper. It considers the effect of human and organizational factors in a more explicit way than current traditional risk analysis methods. This paper begins with exploring the recent advances on offshore fire and explosion risk analysis theories, followed by briefly introducing the research techniques employed in the proposed hybrid causal logic model which consists of event tree, fault tree, Bayesian network, and system dynamics. Thereafter, it proposes a quantitative risk analysis framework. At last, the applicability of this model to the offshore platform is also discussed. It aims to provide guideline for risk analysis of offshore fire and explosion.

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