How do geopolitical risks affect oil prices and freight rates?

The article discusses the features of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Iran and Russia from 2000 to 2018. The research methodology used in the article is focused on two main methods: theoretical and correlation analysis (using the Pearson correlation coefficient test). This test analyzes the relationship between foreign direct investment in the above countries and some macroeconomic variables. The results of the study show that economic structures and the influx of foreign direct investment in Iran and Russia are affected by Western economic sanctions, geopolitical risks and lower world oil prices. In addition, despite similar approaches to the absorption of foreign direct investment in Iran and Russia, the relationships between this indicator and macroeconomic variables (gross domestic product, inflation, employment in industry, services and agriculture, export volume and exchange rate) in these two countries differ significantly in the analyzed period (from 2000 to 2018). As a result of the analysis, it has been concluded that various factors, such as the size of the economy and the level of economic ties with developed economies, make the result of strategies and approaches to them different for these two countries.

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Oil prices and geopolitical risks: What implications are offered via multi-domain investigations?

Energy & Environment ◽

10.1177/0958305x19876092 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 31 (3) ◽

pp. 492-516 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Boying Li ◽

Chun-Ping Chang ◽

Yin Chu ◽

Bo Sui

Keyword(s):

Oil Prices ◽

Sample Period ◽

Low Frequencies ◽

Time Frequency ◽

Dynamic Relationship ◽

Crude Oil Prices ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

High Degree ◽

Geopolitical Risks

This paper firstly investigates the frequency- and time-varying co-movement and causal relationship between crude oil prices (proxied by the West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Dubai and Nigerian Forcados spot oil prices) and geopolitical risks based on the wavelet analysis over the period of 1985–2016. Overall, our results demonstrate significant dynamic co-movement and causality in the varying time–frequency domains. We find high degree of co-movement between geopolitical risks and oil prices at high frequencies (in the short run) for the entire sample period; however, such a correlation does not exist at low frequencies (in the long run) for most of the sample period. We also find distinct patterns of causal relationships between geopolitical risks and oil prices across different benchmark markets. Results are robust when we control for global economic outlook. Our findings provide valuable implications for policy makers and oil market investors based on the dynamic relationship between geopolitical risks and oil prices.

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Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices

Defence and Peace Economics ◽

10.1080/10242694.2018.1563854 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 31 (6) ◽

pp. 692-706 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Juncal Cunado ◽

Rangan Gupta ◽

Chi Keung Marco Lau ◽

Xin Sheng

Keyword(s):

Oil Prices ◽

Time Varying ◽

Geopolitical Risks

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Asymmetric Dependence between Oil Prices and Maritime Freight Rates: A Time-Varying Copula Approach

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su122410687 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (24) ◽

pp. 10687

Author(s):

Ki-Hong Choi ◽

Seong-Min Yoon

Keyword(s):

Tail Dependence ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Dependence Structure ◽

Time Varying ◽

Freight Rates ◽

Asymmetric Dependence ◽

Long Run ◽

Copula Approach ◽

Short Run ◽

The Baltic

Changes in crude oil price affect the shipping freight market via three different channels. This study explores the dependence structure between oil prices and maritime freight rates to identify the effective channel. Therefore, it investigates the relationship between oil prices and three major maritime freight rates; the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI), and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI). We employ the decomposition method, not studied in the existing literature, and the copula approach which can identify the time-varying effects and asymmetry in the tail dependence structure between oil prices and freight rates. The main results of this analysis are as follows: the decomposed components display different conditional dependence patterns, and asymmetry is revealed in the upper and lower tail dependence. In the long-run, we find more dependence in extreme periods like the financial crises. In short-run fluctuations, we find the dependence increases in an economic boom. The implications of the results suggest that dependence can vary over time and may change depending on extreme events, implying that the complementary strategies should be different the long-run and short-run.

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How often do oil prices and tanker freight rates depend on global uncertainty?

Regional Studies in Marine Science ◽

10.1016/j.rsma.2021.102043 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 102043

Author(s):

Khalid Khan ◽

Chi-Wei Su ◽

Ran Tao ◽

Muhammad Umar

Keyword(s):

Oil Prices ◽

Freight Rates ◽

Global Uncertainty

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What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?

Energy Economics ◽

10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104523 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 84 ◽

pp. 104523 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Jamal Bouoiyour ◽

Refk Selmi ◽

Shawkat Hammoudeh ◽

Mark E. Wohar

Keyword(s):

Oil Prices ◽

Geopolitical Risks

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Asymmetric Dependence between Oil Prices and Maritime Freight Rates: A Time-Varying Copula Approach

10.20944/preprints202011.0430.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ki-Hong Choi ◽

Seong-Min Yoon

Keyword(s):

Tail Dependence ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Dependence Structure ◽

Time Varying ◽

Freight Rates ◽

Asymmetric Dependence ◽

Long Run ◽

Copula Approach ◽

Short Run ◽

The Baltic

Changes in crude oil price affect the shipping freight market in three different channels. This study explores the dependence structure between oil prices and maritime freight rates to identify the strongest channel. Therefore, it investigates the relationship between oil prices and three major maritime freight rates; the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI), and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI). We employ the decomposition method, not studied in the existing literature. The copula approach identifies the time-varying effects and asymmetry in the tail dependence structure between oil prices and freight rates. The main results of this analysis are as follows. The decomposed components display different conditional dependence patterns, and asymmetry is revealed in the upper and lower tail dependence. In the long run, we find more dependence in extreme periods like the financial crises. In short-run fluctuations, we find the dependence increases in an economic boom. The implications of the results suggest that dependence can vary over time and may change depending on extreme events, implying that the complementary strategies of the long run and short run should be different.

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What Does Rent Give to Federal Budget (on the Russia's Budget Dependence upon "Oil Dollars")

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2004-7-51-69 ◽

2004 ◽

pp. 51-69 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

E. Sharipova ◽

I. Tcherkashin

Keyword(s):

Oil And Gas ◽

Strong Dependence ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Federal Budget ◽

Oil And Gas Industry ◽

Gas Industry ◽

Resource Rent ◽

Tax Legislation ◽

Russian Economy ◽

The Government

Federal tax revenues from the main sectors of the Russian economy after the 1998 crisis are examined in the article. Authors present the structure of revenues from these sectors by main taxes for 1999-2003 and prospects for 2004. Emphasis is given to an increasing dependence of budget on revenues from oil and gas industries. The share of proceeds from these sectors has reached 1/3 of total federal revenues. To explain this fact world oil prices dynamics and changes in tax legislation in Russia are considered. Empirical results show strong dependence of budget revenues on oil prices. The analysis of changes in tax legislation in oil and gas industry shows that the government has managed to redistribute resource rent in favor of the state.

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